HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The rebounds in healthcare sector is more due to oversold. Unfriendly macro environment could make stock price fluctuate largely.Investors would find better places to long than the current valuation level.</li>
<li>The new document about payment management measures for new technology out of CHS-DRG payment scope is an important “policy correction” signal, but there are still problems remain to be solved.</li>
<li>We analyzed our top picks and investment logic in CXO, pharmaceuticals and medical device industry. Overall, as a “defensive sector”, China healthcare has investment value in such complicated external environment.</li>
</ul>


The rebounds in healthcare sector is more due to oversold. Unfriendly macro environment could make stock price fluctuate largely.Investors would find better places to long than the current valuation level.
The new document about payment management measures for new technology out of CHS-DRG payment scope is an important “policy correction” signal, but there are still problems remain to be solved.
We analyzed our top picks and investment logic in CXO, pharmaceuticals and medical device industry. Overall, as a “defensive sector”, China healthcare has investment value in such complicated external environment.


2022H2 China Healthcare Investment Strategy and Top Picks

<ul>
<li>The increasing expenditure for pandemic prevention and quarantine adds further pressure on the medical insurance fund. So, the NHSA will have more incentive to reduce payment standard.</li>
<li>We analyzed our interpretation on the new policies/bidding rules/impact on companies of 2022 NRDL adjustment, which would be very intense as more high-priced drugs voluntarily reduce prices to enter NRDL.</li>
<li>This year's NRDL negotiations will take place between September and October. The results will be announced in November.Investors can pay attention to relevant time nodes and get prepared in advance.</li>
</ul>


The increasing expenditure for pandemic prevention and quarantine adds further pressure on the medical insurance fund. So, the NHSA will have more incentive to reduce payment standard.
We analyzed our interpretation on the new policies/bidding rules/impact on companies of 2022 NRDL adjustment, which would be very intense as more high-priced drugs voluntarily reduce prices to enter NRDL.
This year's NRDL negotiations will take place between September and October. The results will be announced in November.Investors can pay attention to relevant time nodes and get prepared in advance.


Policy Interpretation of 2022 National Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation

<ul>
<li>There could be investment opportunities for influenza vaccines due to supply-demand mismatch this year, but there is no long-term logic in this industry.</li>
<li>The NRDL adjustment in 2022 has been officially launched. We need to point out a change in favor of the primary drugs (or original drugs).</li>
<li>CXO's prosperity may have problems in the next few years. The point is that it is difficult to predict how long this “low momentum” would last if it comes.</li>
</ul>


There could be investment opportunities for influenza vaccines due to supply-demand mismatch this year, but there is no long-term logic in this industry.
The NRDL adjustment in 2022 has been officially launched. We need to point out a change in favor of the primary drugs (or original drugs).
CXO's prosperity may have problems in the next few years. The point is that it is difficult to predict how long this “low momentum” would last if it comes.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.8)- CXO Outlook, 2022 NRDL Adjustment, Logic of Influenza Vaccine

<ul>
<li>The 7th national VBP is about to start. The competition would be more intense. Due to the adjustment of bidding rules, it’s more difficult for companies to win at high price.</li>
<li>Recently, the State released an exposure draft stipulating that third-party digital healthcare platforms shall not directly participate in online drug sales activities. We analyzed the impact.</li>
<li>National Health Commission issued a new document to remove the threshold for the qualification of medical institutions on OK lens business, which could lead to accelerated development of this industry.</li>
</ul>


The 7th national VBP is about to start. The competition would be more intense. Due to the adjustment of bidding rules, it’s more difficult for companies to win at high price.
Recently, the State released an exposure draft stipulating that third-party digital healthcare platforms shall not directly participate in online drug sales activities. We analyzed the impact.
National Health Commission issued a new document to remove the threshold for the qualification of medical institutions on OK lens business, which could lead to accelerated development of this industry.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.24)-7th National VBP, Online Pharmacy New Policy, OK Lens Rules Relaxed

<ul>
<li>Recently, a new document about online diagnosis and treatment was released, which would bring changes to the business model and profit model of digital healthcare platforms.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 has pushed mRNA vaccines to great heights. However, the next mRNA-based product may not be approved that quick as COVID-19 vaccine. The trough in mRNA may be imminent.</li>
<li>About 20 pharmaceutical companies have drugs included in VBP scope but cannot ensure timely supply due to COVID-19/raw material cost increases/supply chain issues. Investors need to be aware of that.</li>
</ul>


Recently, a new document about online diagnosis and treatment was released, which would bring changes to the business model and profit model of digital healthcare platforms.
The COVID-19 has pushed mRNA vaccines to great heights. However, the next mRNA-based product may not be approved that quick as COVID-19 vaccine. The trough in mRNA may be imminent.
About 20 pharmaceutical companies have drugs included in VBP scope but cannot ensure timely supply due to COVID-19/raw material cost increases/supply chain issues. Investors need to be aware of that.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.17)- Digital Healthcare New Policy,mRNA Dilemma, Drug Supply Disruption

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeOne (ONC US)

2022H2 China Healthcare Investment Strategy and Top Picks

We analyze the investment strategy,top picks and logic in CXO,pharmaceuticals and medical device industry.As a “defensive sector”,China healthcare...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Policy Interpretation of 2022 National Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation

We analyzed the new policies, bidding rules, logic and impact on companies of 2022 NRDL adjustment,which will be very intense.The results will be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (July.8)- CXO Outlook, 2022 NRDL Adjustment, Logic of Influenza Vaccine

CXO's prosperity may have problems in the next few years. We analyzed the logic. There is no long-term logic for influenza vaccine. A change in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.24)-7th National VBP, Online Pharmacy New Policy, OK Lens Rules Relaxed

7th national VBP is coming,with more competition. New policy that third-party digital healthcare platforms can't directly participate in online...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.17)- Digital Healthcare New Policy,mRNA Dilemma, Drug Supply Disruption

New policy for digital healthcare will change related platforms' profit model. The trough in mRNA may be imminent, as companies fail due to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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