Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With Korea’s Hanjin Shipping filing for court receivership last week, the assumption that major container lines will always find a way to survive has been rockedIn 2009 when the container industry posted operating losses of nearly $20 billion and many lines were said to be minutes from bankruptcy, none died. The “zombie” carriers’ survival methods were varied and complex, ranging from off-hiring ships to requesting government support, but ultimately they worked.Having survived the worst crisis…

With Korea’s Hanjin Shipping filing for court receivership last week, the assumption that major container lines will always find a way to survive has been rockedIn 2009 when the container industry posted operating losses of nearly $20 billion and many lines were said to be minutes from bankruptcy, none died. The “zombie” carriers’ survival methods were varied and complex, ranging from off-hiring ships to requesting government support, but ultimately they worked.Having survived the worst crisis…

Collapse of Hanjin Shipping - Carriers Do Have Breaking Points

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Enterprises Hldgs / Equity Bottom-Up

Narrow-moat Beijing Enterprises Holdings, or BEH, posted decent first-half 2016 results, with recurring profit increasing 16% year over year to CNY 3.6 billion, making up 52% of our full-year forecast. The midstream gas transmission volume was a little softer than we anticipated; however, downstream gas distribution volume remains robust, rising 21% from a year ago. While we see risks of potential midstream transmission tariff cuts, China’s air pollution issues will bolster the government policy focus on promoting wider use of natural gas instead of coal, which should sustain a healthy long-term growth. We maintain both our 2016 earnings forecast of CNY 6.5 billion and our fair value estimate of HKD 58.00 per share, with a worstcase scenario of a cut in returns for the Shaanxi-Beijing transmission pipelines to 8% from 12% in 2017 being fully reflected in our valuation model.We think BEH is undervalued at the current price level, trading at 8 times 2016 price/earnings and 0.9 times price/book, with a stable growth outlook underpinned by its defensive gas transmission and distribution assets, versus 15-18 times price/earnings and almost 3 times price/book for its industry peers.Analyst: Jennifer Song

Narrow-moat Beijing Enterprises Holdings, or BEH, posted decent first-half 2016 results, with recurring profit increasing 16% year over year to CNY 3.6 billion, making up 52% of our full-year forecast. The midstream gas transmission volume was a little softer than we anticipated; however, downstream gas distribution volume remains robust, rising 21% from a year ago. While we see risks of potential midstream transmission tariff cuts, China’s air pollution issues will bolster the government policy focus on promoting wider use of natural gas instead of coal, which should sustain a healthy long-term growth. We maintain both our 2016 earnings forecast of CNY 6.5 billion and our fair value estimate of HKD 58.00 per share, with a worstcase scenario of a cut in returns for the Shaanxi-Beijing transmission pipelines to 8% from 12% in 2017 being fully reflected in our valuation model.We think BEH is undervalued at the current price level, trading at 8 times 2016 price/earnings and 0.9 times price/book, with a stable growth outlook underpinned by its defensive gas transmission and distribution assets, versus 15-18 times price/earnings and almost 3 times price/book for its industry peers.Analyst: Jennifer Song

BEH's First-Half Results In Line; Shares Are Undervalued on Healthy Long-Term Outlook

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

Dry bulk normalisation continues; Tankers trend down in line with our expectations, Introduce Offshore sector<ul><li>Dry bulk stocks impacted by market malaise and company-specific events</li><li>Tide is turning for tanker operators; port sector transitioning to value play</li><li>Rally in offshore stocks could be a dead cat bounce; retracement in oil prices affect gas shipping</li></ul>

Dry bulk normalisation continues; Tankers trend down in line with our expectations, Introduce Offshore sectorDry bulk stocks impacted by market malaise and company-specific eventsTide is turning for tanker operators; port sector transitioning to value playRally in offshore stocks could be a dead cat bounce; retracement in oil prices affect gas shipping

DMER - Maritime Financial Insights -  July 2016

<h2>Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping</h2>More containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including old-design ships made redundant by the new Panama Canal.Drewry believes that, for the first time, 450,000teu of containership capacity is expected to be scrapped in just one year, as the containership sector recognises that there are far too many ships chasing too little cargo. Based on an average size of 3,000teu for ships which are being scrapped,…

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on ScrappingMore containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including old-design ships made redundant by the new Panama Canal.Drewry believes that, for the first time, 450,000teu of containership capacity is expected to be scrapped in just one year, as the containership sector recognises that there are far too many ships chasing too little cargo. Based on an average size of 3,000teu for ships which are being scrapped,…

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping

Hong Kong

Beijing Enterprises Holdings Ltd. is a diversified company.  The Company brews beer; distributes natural gas through pipelines; invests in, designs, constructs and operates water supply and wastewater treatment plants; operates toll roads; disposes of hazardous waste; and offers electronic payment systems.

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Beijing Enterprises Hldgs (392 HK)

Collapse of Hanjin Shipping - Carriers Do Have Breaking Points

With Korea’s Hanjin Shipping filing for court receivership last week, the assumption that major container lines will always find a way to survive...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

BEH's First-Half Results In Line; Shares Are Undervalued on Healthy Long-Term Outlook

Narrow-moat Beijing Enterprises Holdings, or BEH, posted decent first-half 2016 results, with recurring profit increasing 16% year over year to CNY...

Morningstar, Inc.

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into...

Charles De Trenck

DMER - Maritime Financial Insights - July 2016

Dry bulk normalisation continues; Tankers trend down in line with our expectations, Introduce Offshore sector Dry bulk stocks impacted by market...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on ScrappingMore containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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