European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.</li>
<li>The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi's simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.</li>
<li>With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi's simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.


Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

<ul>
<li>Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.</li>
<li>Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.</li>
<li>Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.


Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Podcast by Eric Golden on Web3 businesses, Web3 Breakdowns

Web3 Breakdowns

Podcast by Eric Golden on Web3 businesses

Web3 Breakdowns is a series of conversations exploring innovation in the decentralized internet. Each episode will focus on a different topic - we will cover NFT projects, crypto assets, blockchain-based protocols, and businesses being built with Web3 architecture. We will talk to founders, artists, investors and influencers to understand this emerging ecosystem. Visit joincolossus.com to find more episodes, transcripts and a library of content to continue your learning.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Eric Johnson, senior technology editor at the Journal of Commerce, brings over 20 years of experience covering logistics and technology</li><li>Journal of Commerce is a nearly 200-year-old publication focused on the maritime containerized supply chain industry</li><li>Freight logistics involve moving large volumes of goods from factories to distribution centers or warehouses, with multiple players involved in the process from point A to point B</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Eric Johnson, senior technology editor at the Journal of Commerce, brings over 20 years of experience covering logistics and technologyJournal of Commerce is a nearly 200-year-old publication focused on the maritime containerized supply chain industryFreight logistics involve moving large volumes of goods from factories to distribution centers or warehouses, with multiple players involved in the process from point A to point BThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Eric Johnson: The Complex World of Global Logistics - [Making Markets, EP.52]

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.</li>
<li>We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)</li>
</ul>


We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)


Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

France

Bollore SA is a holding company.  The Company offers freight forwarding and transport services, manufactures plastic film and paper, offers port and stevedoring services, operates rubber, palm and oil plantations and offers banking services.

Price Gauge
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Bollore SA (BOL FP)

Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

Vivendi offers 22–37% upside in under six months as Bolloré faces a mandatory buyout. Legal clarity, NAV support, and strong liquidity make this a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Eric Johnson: The Complex World of Global Logistics - [Making Markets, EP.52]

The Journal of Commerce, led by Eric Johnson, delves into the complexities of logistics and technology in the movement of goods internationally,...

Web3 Breakdowns

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

We remain neutral on global equities $ACWI and expect rangebound price action in the months (possibly year) ahead. Specific $ACWI trading range we...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

Vivendi offers 22–37% upside in under six months as Bolloré faces a mandatory buyout. Legal clarity, NAV support, and strong liquidity make this a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

​Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Eric Johnson: The Complex World of Global Logistics - [Making Markets, EP.52]

The Journal of Commerce, led by Eric Johnson, delves into the complexities of logistics and technology in the movement of goods internationally,...

Web3 Breakdowns

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

We remain neutral on global equities $ACWI and expect rangebound price action in the months (possibly year) ahead. Specific $ACWI trading range we...

Vermilion Research

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...