Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be decided. Imminent political developments will determine whether Brexit is hard, soft, deferred, or aborted</strong>.</p>
<p><strong>The UK's principal share index the FTSE 100 is virtually unchanged since we established our Long/Short portfolio a month ago. Results from Lloyds and Centrica have lead to useful outperformance and underperformance respectively. The M&amp;S joint venture with Ocado is judged by investors to have added a lot more value to the latter than the former. We have been wrong-footed by Melrose Industries, but heck, there is always one.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Remembering that no one ever got poor from taking  profits,  we have closed out our long position in Lloyds Banking.  </strong></p>
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<div class="content-caption">S&amp;P Capital IQ</div>
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With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be decided. Imminent political developments will determine whether Brexit is hard, soft, deferred, or aborted.
The UK's principal share index the FTSE 100 is virtually unchanged since we established our Long/Short portfolio a month ago. Results from Lloyds and Centrica have lead to useful outperformance and underperformance respectively. The M&amp;S joint venture with Ocado is judged by investors to have added a lot more value to the latter than the former. We have been wrong-footed by Melrose Industries, but heck, there is always one.
Remembering that no one ever got poor from taking  profits,  we have closed out our long position in Lloyds Banking.  


S&amp;P Capital IQ


Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  </strong></p>
<h2><strong>Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?</strong></h2>
<p>Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients</p>
<h2><strong>Why is it in the Short portfolio ?</strong></h2>
<p>Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. </p>
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<div class="content-caption">S&amp;P Capital IQ</div>

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  
Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?
Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients
Why is it in the Short portfolio ?
Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. 

S&amp;P Capital IQ

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

<p>The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium</p>
<p> In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period</p>
<p>Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year</p>
<p>On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain</p>
<p>Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences </p>
<p>We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes </p>

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium
 In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period
Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year
On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain
Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences 
We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes 

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The MSCI ACWI advanced to <em>another new high</em> yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move. While potential resistance levels exist, recent developments only bolster our already positive outlook.  In today's report, we highlight actionable setups within our global Technology, and Real Estate Developers and REITs Groups.</p>

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move. While potential resistance levels exist, recent developments only bolster our already positive outlook.  In today's report, we highlight actionable setups within our global Technology, and Real Estate Developers and REITs Groups.

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

Amareos

Ryan Shea

<p><strong>Summary: </strong></p><p><em>Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble occurs when the price of an asset is significantly overvalued making it increasingly difficult to justify based on underlying fundamentals. In such situations it is the overriding optimism of the crowd, with unrealistically high expectations, that acts as the propellant for further gains. Ten years on from the bursting of the US housing market</em>…</p>

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble occurs when the price of an asset is significantly overvalued making it increasingly difficult to justify based on underlying fundamentals. In such situations it is the overriding optimism of the crowd, with unrealistically high expectations, that acts as the propellant for further gains. Ten years on from the bursting of the US housing market…

The Market Sentimentalist: Global Real Estate – Where Are The Risks Residing?

United Kingdom

British Land Company plc invests, both directly and through joint ventures, in income-producing and freehold commercial properties in order to maximize their growth and potential.  The Company trades, finances, and develops property. Their portfolio consists of offices, retail superstores, shopping centers, leisure, industrial, and distribution spaces.

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British Land Co (BLND LN)

FTSE 100 Long/Short: Beginner's Luck

With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be...

Boost Research

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket. A tough market...

Boost Research

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium In contrast with the lackluster...

Boost Research

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move....

Vermilion Research

The Market Sentimentalist: Global Real Estate – Where Are The Risks Residing?

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble...

Amareos

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