Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> reports Q3 2025 results on 30 October after market close. </li>
<li>
Options markets imply a ±4.7% move, notably larger than the historical ±3.0% average. The stock has shown asymmetric reactions, with fewer but stronger upside moves.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Understand how implied swings compare with history and how the earnings-linked volatility peak offers tactical opportunities around BYD’s 31 Oct weekly expiry.</li>
</ul>



Context:BYD (1211 HK) reports Q3 2025 results on 30 October after market close. 

Options markets imply a ±4.7% move, notably larger than the historical ±3.0% average. The stock has shown asymmetric reactions, with fewer but stronger upside moves.

Why Read: Understand how implied swings compare with history and how the earnings-linked volatility peak offers tactical opportunities around BYD’s 31 Oct weekly expiry.


BYD (1211 HK) Earnings on 30 Oct: Options Price in Larger-Than-Usual Move

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-tactical-outlook-a-rally-may-be-underway" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous BYD insight on October 3</a>, the stock is oversold and could start a rally soon.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> was heavily overbought at its peak in mid-2025, then declined &gt;30% in a few months. It's oversold.
</li>
<li>
However at the moment our model has identified the current short-term trend pattern as bearish: a 1-2 weeks rally can happen, but then the stock will pullback again. Caution advised.</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous BYD insight on October 3, the stock is oversold and could start a rally soon.

BYD (1211 HK) was heavily overbought at its peak in mid-2025, then declined &gt;30% in a few months. It's oversold.


However at the moment our model has identified the current short-term trend pattern as bearish: a 1-2 weeks rally can happen, but then the stock will pullback again. Caution advised.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Bottoming, But Wait to Buy The Dips...

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BYD’s monthly sales volume decreased YoY for the first time in September.</li>
<li>We expect the revenue growth rate will slow down to 16%, but op margin will rise in 2026.</li>
<li>We believe the stock price is overvalued, whether measured by time-series or cross-sectional methods.</li>
</ul>


BYD’s monthly sales volume decreased YoY for the first time in September.
We expect the revenue growth rate will slow down to 16%, but op margin will rise in 2026.
We believe the stock price is overvalued, whether measured by time-series or cross-sectional methods.


BYD (1211 HK): Sep Sales Down 1st Time, Margin to Be Up in 2026 - Stock Overvalued

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is currently in a position from where it could rally. Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-tactical-outlook-rally-or-bear-rally" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> suggested a possible bottoming area around 100.9 but the stock never reached that low.</li>
<li>This week the stock rallied to 114.7, then pulled back. If the stock is temporarily bottoming, it could rally past 115 and up to 130 from here. 
</li>
<li>According to our TIME MODEL the duration of the rally could be up to 3-4 weeks (2-3 more weeks up from here).</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) is currently in a position from where it could rally. Our previous insight suggested a possible bottoming area around 100.9 but the stock never reached that low.
This week the stock rallied to 114.7, then pulled back. If the stock is temporarily bottoming, it could rally past 115 and up to 130 from here. 

According to our TIME MODEL the duration of the rally could be up to 3-4 weeks (2-3 more weeks up from here).


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: A Rally May Be Underway

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-tactical-outlook-maybe-soon-is-time-to-buy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight from September 2</a> we suggested if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> reached 102 could have been a good BUY signal. </li>
<li>It took a bit more than a couple of week for the stock to bottom at 102.80 (this week), then rally 10%  to 113.50. Impressive, but....</li>
<li>... it could be a Bear rally, so in this insight we will try to assess <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a> upside potential, and suggest some tactical positioning for the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight from September 2 we suggested if BYD (1211 HK) reached 102 could have been a good BUY signal. 
It took a bit more than a couple of week for the stock to bottom at 102.80 (this week), then rally 10%  to 113.50. Impressive, but....
... it could be a Bear rally, so in this insight we will try to assess BYD upside potential, and suggest some tactical positioning for the next few weeks.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Rally or Bear Rally?

China

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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BYD (1211 HK)

BYD (1211 HK) Earnings on 30 Oct: Options Price in Larger-Than-Usual Move

Quick reminder: BYD (1211 HK) will report after market close on 30 October. When the company last reported on 29 August, the stock fell 5.2% the...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Bottoming, But Wait to Buy The Dips...

BYD has declined over 30% since its peak in mid-2025. The stock is long-term oversold, we think it could reverse and rally, but in the very short...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK): Sep Sales Down 1st Time, Margin to Be Up in 2026 - Stock Overvalued

BYD’s monthly sales volume decreased YoY for the first time in September. We expect the revenue growth rate will slow down, but op margin will rise...

Ming Lu

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: A Rally May Be Underway

BYD (1211 HK) may be in a bottoming process and could rally past 115 to 130 from current levels. Potential duration of the rally: 3-4 weeks,...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Rally or Bear Rally?

BYD rallied 10% after hitting a bottom at 102.80 this week, but it could be a bear rally. This insight assesses upside potential and suggests...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BYD (1211 HK) Earnings on 30 Oct: Options Price in Larger-Than-Usual Move

Quick reminder: BYD (1211 HK) will report after market close on 30 October. When the company last reported on 29 August, the stock fell 5.2% the...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Bottoming, But Wait to Buy The Dips...

BYD has declined over 30% since its peak in mid-2025. The stock is long-term oversold, we think it could reverse and rally, but in the very short...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK): Sep Sales Down 1st Time, Margin to Be Up in 2026 - Stock Overvalued

BYD’s monthly sales volume decreased YoY for the first time in September. We expect the revenue growth rate will slow down, but op margin will rise...

Ming Lu

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: A Rally May Be Underway

​BYD (1211 HK) may be in a bottoming process and could rally past 115 to 130 from current levels. Potential duration of the rally: 3-4 weeks,...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Rally or Bear Rally?

​BYD rallied 10% after hitting a bottom at 102.80 this week, but it could be a bear rally. This insight assesses upside potential and suggests...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK) may be in a bottoming process and could rally past 115 to 130 from current levels. Potential duration of the rally: 3-4 weeks,...

BYD rallied 10% after hitting a bottom at 102.80 this week, but it could be a bear rally. This insight assesses upside potential and suggests...