Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for 8 prominent Hong Kong stocks and the benchmark index.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In contrast, Alibaba’s IV remains rich, while Hang Seng Index IV is cheap across the curve, offering attractive hedge entry points.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for 8 prominent Hong Kong stocks and the benchmark index.

Highlights: In contrast, Alibaba’s IV remains rich, while Hang Seng Index IV is cheap across the curve, offering attractive hedge entry points.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: Diverging Signals Across Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK) & The HSI

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 22 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VOYAH application proof</a>, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative. </li>
<li>Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85. </li>
</ul>


On 22 August, Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative. 
Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85. 


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 3rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Horizon Robotics, Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile, CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 3rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Horizon Robotics, Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile, CCB.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 3rd): Alibaba, Tencent, Horizon Robotics, Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC, BYD, Baba, Meituan, Longfor.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC, BYD, Baba, Meituan, Longfor.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD, Horizonrobot, Meituan, Jd, Kuaishou, Bidu, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD, Horizonrobot, Meituan, Jd, Kuaishou, Bidu, BYD.


HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Sep): Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD

China

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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BYD (1211 HK)

Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: Diverging Signals Across Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK) & The HSI

Volatility cones reveal contrasting signals — Alibaba’s IV stays rich, Tencent trades nearly cheap, and the Hang Seng Index shows low IV,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are...

Arun George

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 3rd): Alibaba, Tencent, Horizon Robotics, Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Horizon Robotics, Xiaomi, SMIC, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Sep 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC, BYD,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Sep): Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Sep 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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