Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>, and the rest of the Chinese Online Search industry, has consistently been losing market share to the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a> over the past two years. Although I still believe there is significant long term growth left for the Chinese digital advertising market, it can easily be argued that this growth will be heavily skewed and that the “pure” Search market is in effect an “industry in decline”. 
In his book “Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analysing Industries and Competitors”, Michael Porter expands on four key strategies which firms could successfully follow when they find themselves in a declining industry. In this insight, I analyse Baidu’s current strategy against these offered strategies to assess if there is indeed value left in the company (or at least the core search business). 
Baidu should be able to continue to produce significant cash flow from its core search business as long as it sticks to the “leadership” strategy – given their dominant share of search queries, the low penetration they have in the SME market, the suitability to Search advertising for certain industry verticals and their superior profitability. I estimate Baidu’s fair value at US$168/ADS based on a SOTP valuation. The values used in my SOTP for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> (market value), Net Cash and Other investments (book value) would imply that Baidu’s core operations are currently valued at only $10.4bn ex-cash, which equates to only 9.1x 2021F PE (only 3.9x PE ex-cash).

Baidu (BIDU US), and the rest of the Chinese Online Search industry, has consistently been losing market share to the likes of Alibaba Group (9988 HK), ByteDance (1460967D CH), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) over the past two years. Although I still believe there is significant long term growth left for the Chinese digital advertising market, it can easily be argued that this growth will be heavily skewed and that the “pure” Search market is in effect an “industry in decline”. 
In his book “Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analysing Industries and Competitors”, Michael Porter expands on four key strategies which firms could successfully follow when they find themselves in a declining industry. In this insight, I analyse Baidu’s current strategy against these offered strategies to assess if there is indeed value left in the company (or at least the core search business). 
Baidu should be able to continue to produce significant cash flow from its core search business as long as it sticks to the “leadership” strategy – given their dominant share of search queries, the low penetration they have in the SME market, the suitability to Search advertising for certain industry verticals and their superior profitability. I estimate Baidu’s fair value at US$168/ADS based on a SOTP valuation. The values used in my SOTP for iQIYI Inc (IQ US), Trip.com (TCOM US) (market value), Net Cash and Other investments (book value) would imply that Baidu’s core operations are currently valued at only $10.4bn ex-cash, which equates to only 9.1x 2021F PE (only 3.9x PE ex-cash).

Baidu: Strategies for Operating in an Industry in Decline

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chindata (CD) is the leading carrier-neutral hyperscale data center solution provider in Asia Pacific emerging markets and the company focuses on China, India and Southeast Asian markets.</li>
<li>According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, Chindata was ranked first in the carrier-neutral hyperscale data center market in Asia-Pacific emerging markets in terms of capacity in service, with a 21.5% market share (as of December 2019).</li>
<li>The company operates six hyperscale data centers in China and one data center in Malaysia and is in the process of constructing five data centers in China and one data center in India as of the date of the IPO prospectus.</li>
<li>The company has filed for an IPO in the US and has a placeholder indication to raise up to US$400m and plans to use approximately 70% of the IPO proceeds on the development and construction of new data center projects. </li>
</ul>


Chindata (CD) is the leading carrier-neutral hyperscale data center solution provider in Asia Pacific emerging markets and the company focuses on China, India and Southeast Asian markets.
According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, Chindata was ranked first in the carrier-neutral hyperscale data center market in Asia-Pacific emerging markets in terms of capacity in service, with a 21.5% market share (as of December 2019).
The company operates six hyperscale data centers in China and one data center in Malaysia and is in the process of constructing five data centers in China and one data center in India as of the date of the IPO prospectus.
The company has filed for an IPO in the US and has a placeholder indication to raise up to US$400m and plans to use approximately 70% of the IPO proceeds on the development and construction of new data center projects. 


Chindata IPO: Making Good Progress but Challenges Ahead

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata (CD US)</a> is a data centre operator. It is the largest carrier-neutral hyperscale data centre operator in Asia-Pacific emerging markets as measured by capacity in service, with 21.5% market share out of a total market size of 829 MW, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Chindata is backed by Bain Capital (57.17% shareholder), APG Strategic Real Estate Pool/Dutch pension funds (10.43%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:393:1" rel="noopener">SK Holdings (034730 KS)</a> (8.94%). It is seeking to raise up to $800 million (primary and secondary sale) through a Nasdaq IPO, according to press reports. <div class="content-highlight">The Asia-Pacific hyperscale data centre market is a structural growth market in part due to the increasing prevalence of outsourcing data centre services, rising client demand for higher power density and scalability, and increasing compliance and regulatory requirements on data security. Overall, we think that Chindata is an attractive play on these favourable market dynamics. </div>

Chindata (CD US) is a data centre operator. It is the largest carrier-neutral hyperscale data centre operator in Asia-Pacific emerging markets as measured by capacity in service, with 21.5% market share out of a total market size of 829 MW, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Chindata is backed by Bain Capital (57.17% shareholder), APG Strategic Real Estate Pool/Dutch pension funds (10.43%) and SK Holdings (034730 KS) (8.94%). It is seeking to raise up to $800 million (primary and secondary sale) through a Nasdaq IPO, according to press reports. The Asia-Pacific hyperscale data centre market is a structural growth market in part due to the increasing prevalence of outsourcing data centre services, rising client demand for higher power density and scalability, and increasing compliance and regulatory requirements on data security. Overall, we think that Chindata is an attractive play on these favourable market dynamics. 

Chindata Group IPO Initiation: Where the Cloud Meets the Ground

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Chindata Group Holdings aims to raise around US$400m in its US listing. Chindata is a data centre solution provider in Asia-Pacific with a focus on China. It currently operates six data centers in China and one in Malaysia and has numerous more data centers under construction.The company is backed by Bain Capital and is almost like a startup, in the sense that it was recently formed via the merger of a China and Asia-Pac entity. Given the relative freshness of the firm, the company has taken the liberty of providing financials just for the past 18 months, which of course show rapid growth. Also, it doesn’t provide a whole lot of details about its individual assets. Furthermore, its two large clients account for a huge chunk of its revenue, one of which is Bytedance, the other being Wangsu.On the positive side, Chindata has plans to more than double its capacity by the end of 2021, which will ensure that growth remains strong. Moreover, its Chairman and founder appear to have ample experience in the sector. It operates in a sector which has only seen investor demand increase during COVID-19 and hence, despite its lack of financials will probably still be hot. In this note, I’ll talk about the company’s background, its past performance and the above issues.

Chindata Group Holdings aims to raise around US$400m in its US listing. Chindata is a data centre solution provider in Asia-Pacific with a focus on China. It currently operates six data centers in China and one in Malaysia and has numerous more data centers under construction.The company is backed by Bain Capital and is almost like a startup, in the sense that it was recently formed via the merger of a China and Asia-Pac entity. Given the relative freshness of the firm, the company has taken the liberty of providing financials just for the past 18 months, which of course show rapid growth. Also, it doesn’t provide a whole lot of details about its individual assets. Furthermore, its two large clients account for a huge chunk of its revenue, one of which is Bytedance, the other being Wangsu.On the positive side, Chindata has plans to more than double its capacity by the end of 2021, which will ensure that growth remains strong. Moreover, its Chairman and founder appear to have ample experience in the sector. It operates in a sector which has only seen investor demand increase during COVID-19 and hence, despite its lack of financials will probably still be hot. In this note, I’ll talk about the company’s background, its past performance and the above issues.

Chindata Group Holdings Pre-IPO - Patchy Data but Is Growing Fast in a Hot Sector

Nikkei reported on Tuesday (08th September 2020) that Apple will begin initial production of its 5G-enabled iPhones in mid-September amid travel restrictions and Covid-19 disruptions. Apple has managed to reduce the delay in the production of its much anticipated 5G iPhones to just weeks instead of months.Apple usually begins mass production of its new iPhone model in August every year that are scheduled for release during the company’s September event.

Nikkei reported on Tuesday (08th September 2020) that Apple will begin initial production of its 5G-enabled iPhones in mid-September amid travel restrictions and Covid-19 disruptions. Apple has managed to reduce the delay in the production of its much anticipated 5G iPhones to just weeks instead of months.Apple usually begins mass production of its new iPhone model in August every year that are scheduled for release during the company’s September event.

Apple to Start Producing 5G IPhones in Mid-September

China

Beijing Douyin Information Service Co. Ltd. provides online information and contents. The Company develops and operates short video platform, original short video community, news platform, and other related products. Beijing Douyin Information Service offers services worldwide.

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ByteDance (1439927D CH)

Baidu: Strategies for Operating in an Industry in Decline

Baidu, and the rest of the Chinese Online Search industry, has consistently been losing market share to the likes of Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent,...

Wium Malan, CFA

Chindata IPO: Making Good Progress but Challenges Ahead

Chindata (CD) is the leading carrier-neutral hyperscale data center solution provider in Asia Pacific emerging markets and the company focuses on...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Chindata Group IPO Initiation: Where the Cloud Meets the Ground

Chindata is a data centre operator. It is the largest carrier-neutral hyperscale data centre operator in Asia-Pacific emerging markets as measured...

Arun George

Chindata Group Holdings Pre-IPO - Patchy Data but Is Growing Fast in a Hot Sector

Chindata Group Holdings aims to raise around US$400m in its US listing. Chindata is a data centre solution provider in Asia-Pacific with a focus on...

Sumeet Singh

Apple to Start Producing 5G IPhones in Mid-September

Nikkei reported on Tuesday (08th September 2020) that Apple will begin initial production of its 5G-enabled iPhones in mid-September amid travel...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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