Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KTX maintains our Neutral rating. Our valuation metrics show neutral views in terms of the fundamentals and tactical perspectives.</li><li>However, the long-term earnings growth should remain strong.</li><li>We assess the fair value at Bt18.56, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 3.31%.</li></ul>

KTX maintains our Neutral rating. Our valuation metrics show neutral views in terms of the fundamentals and tactical perspectives.However, the long-term earnings growth should remain strong.We assess the fair value at Bt18.56, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 3.31%.

Charoen Pokphand Foods -Expect Core Loss in 1Q24E Before Turning Around in 2H24E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.</li><li>During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.</li><li>In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.</li></ul>

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

<ul><li>The 4Q23 and 2023 core earnings were in the red due to a narrower margin, along with higher interest expenses and operating expenses.</li><li>Looking forward, the earnings recovery may remain slow.</li><li>KTX maintains our Neutral rating, with a fair value of Bt18.62, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 3.61%. </li></ul>

The 4Q23 and 2023 core earnings were in the red due to a narrower margin, along with higher interest expenses and operating expenses.Looking forward, the earnings recovery may remain slow.KTX maintains our Neutral rating, with a fair value of Bt18.62, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 3.61%. 

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 4Q23 and 2023 Core Losses Due to Lower Margin

<div><div><div><ul><li>We maintain our Neutral call. Although the valuation metrics suggest that the short-term fundamentals are unattractive, the long-term growth prospects are promising.</li><li>We have a neutral tactical view in the medium term, with a new 2024E fair price of Bt20.80 (based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 3. 23%).</li><li>We cut the 2023E forecast to a loss and revised down earnings in 2024-25E by 9-10%.</li></ul></div></div></div>

We maintain our Neutral call. Although the valuation metrics suggest that the short-term fundamentals are unattractive, the long-term growth prospects are promising.We have a neutral tactical view in the medium term, with a new 2024E fair price of Bt20.80 (based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 3. 23%).We cut the 2023E forecast to a loss and revised down earnings in 2024-25E by 9-10%.

Charoen Pokphand Foods - Expect 2024E Earnings to Turn Around from Loss in 2023E

<ul><li>CPF reported a 2Q23 net loss of Bt792mn, better than our projection of a net loss of Bt2.1bn due to higher-than- expected extra gain of Bt3.0bn vs. our estimate of Bt1.4bn.</li><li>Excluding the extra items, the firm reported a core loss of Bt3.8bn, missing our projection calling for a core loss of Bt3.5bn.</li><li>The core loss of Bt3.8bn in 2Q23 was much worse than the core profit of Bt1.5bn in 2Q22 and in line with the amount in 1Q23.</li></ul>

CPF reported a 2Q23 net loss of Bt792mn, better than our projection of a net loss of Bt2.1bn due to higher-than- expected extra gain of Bt3.0bn vs. our estimate of Bt1.4bn.Excluding the extra items, the firm reported a core loss of Bt3.8bn, missing our projection calling for a core loss of Bt3.5bn.The core loss of Bt3.8bn in 2Q23 was much worse than the core profit of Bt1.5bn in 2Q22 and in line with the amount in 1Q23.

Earnings Review - Charoen Pokphand Foods Plc. (CPF) - August 15, 2023

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited produces a wide range of food products. The Company's products include chicken, pork, shrimp, fish, eggs. and duck.

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Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF-R TB)

Charoen Pokphand Foods -Expect Core Loss in 1Q24E Before Turning Around in 2H24E

KTX maintains our Neutral rating. Our valuation metrics show neutral views in terms of the fundamentals and tactical perspectives. However, the...

Krungthai XSpring

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 4Q23 and 2023 Core Losses Due to Lower Margin

The 4Q23 and 2023 core earnings were in the red due to a narrower margin, along with higher interest expenses and operating expenses.

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - Expect 2024E Earnings to Turn Around from Loss in 2023E

We maintain our Neutral call. Although the valuation metrics suggest that the short-term fundamentals are unattractive, the long-term growth...

Krungthai XSpring

Earnings Review - Charoen Pokphand Foods Plc. (CPF) - August 15, 2023

CPF reported a 2Q23 net loss of Bt792mn, better than our projection of a net loss of Bt2.1bn due to higher-than- expected extra gain of Bt3.0bn vs....

Krungthai XSpring

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