Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the critical 110 level like fish through water</li><li>USDJPY at 108.07 on Friday is now down -9% &amp; -1% from QE III &amp; QE II rounds in Japan</li><li>Whilst timing is always the factor, I favour portfolios with downward exposure, be they long vol, long puts the Nikkei/Kospi/Dax/Dow/S&amp;P or outright shorts on those indices</li><li>On currencies, even though I feel we are in a USD liquidation phase, tactically I favour risk-off crosses such as Short AUDJPY, Short NZDJPY, short GBPJPY. With that said EURUSD should take out 1.15 this week from Friday sub 1.14 close </li><li>On commodities, once again Gold miners GDX &amp; spot – remember the call people, we will see $1500 sooner than you think. And on bonds, once again US10yrs, yes at 1.75% they are tight. But it’s a relative world with JGBs &amp; Bund at -7bp &amp; +9bp &amp; key event risks in Jun &amp; Jul globally, +1.75% is a steal…</li><li>Lots of data due out this week: US earnings season kicks off today, globally its an inflation themed week &amp; there will be a big focus on China’s GDP due out on Fri (15)</li></ul>

Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the critical 110 level like fish through waterUSDJPY at 108.07 on Friday is now down -9% &amp; -1% from QE III &amp; QE II rounds in JapanWhilst timing is always the factor, I favour portfolios with downward exposure, be they long vol, long puts the Nikkei/Kospi/Dax/Dow/S&amp;P or outright shorts on those indicesOn currencies, even though I feel we are in a USD liquidation phase, tactically I favour risk-off crosses such as Short AUDJPY, Short NZDJPY, short GBPJPY. With that said EURUSD should take out 1.15 this week from Friday sub 1.14 close On commodities, once again Gold miners GDX &amp; spot – remember the call people, we will see $1500 sooner than you think. And on bonds, once again US10yrs, yes at 1.75% they are tight. But it’s a relative world with JGBs &amp; Bund at -7bp &amp; +9bp &amp; key event risks in Jun &amp; Jul globally, +1.75% is a steal…Lots of data due out this week: US earnings season kicks off today, globally its an inflation themed week &amp; there will be a big focus on China’s GDP due out on Fri (15)

Global Macro Take: WK 15. False Gods Be Damned….

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.</div>As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cwe.12141/epdf" target="_blank">recent paper</a>(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a recent paper(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We presume there is some posturing and positioning amongst banks, to be sure no single bank is too out of line and reported rates of growth are similarly poor.  Gone are the days of heady growth, which is no surprise, given the ramp up of bad loans, worsening credit growth and pressure on net interest margins. As we look at a few of China’s banks newly…

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We presume there is some posturing and positioning amongst banks, to be sure no single bank is too out of line and reported rates of growth are similarly poor.  Gone are the days of heady growth, which is no surprise, given the ramp up of bad loans, worsening credit growth and pressure on net interest margins. As we look at a few of China’s banks newly…

China Bank Profit on the Way to Contraction

<ul><li>BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights</li><li>In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assets</li><li>The risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the most</li><li>Australia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convinced</li><li>Hang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears</li></ul>

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weightsIn all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assetsThe risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the mostAustralia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convincedHang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears 

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point.  They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of the year supported by significant further monetary policy easing, cooperation among oil-producing nations, a sense that Chinese policymakers are working harder to underpin growth and stabilize its capital markets, and ECB efforts to mitigate the dampening effects of its negative rate policy on bank profits.  However, last week, global asset markets retreated after bumping up against down-trends established over the last year. Investors are worried that global growth and potential earnings remain tepid, that structural problems in emerging markets and over-supplied commodity markets remain. They may be concerned by the prospect of a return to monetary policy tightening in the US, the lingering doubts over bank profitability and loan quality, and limited further space to ease monetary and fiscal policy if required.  The outlook for US monetary policy will be important and key events this week will be watched closely.  We see the wages data at end week particularly important in the wake of a benign wage growth outlook in the 16 March FOMC meeting.

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point.  They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of the year supported by significant further monetary policy easing, cooperation among oil-producing nations, a sense that Chinese policymakers are working harder to underpin growth and stabilize its capital markets, and ECB efforts to mitigate the dampening effects of its negative rate policy on bank profits.  However, last week, global asset markets retreated after bumping up against down-trends established over the last year. Investors are worried that global growth and potential earnings remain tepid, that structural problems in emerging markets and over-supplied commodity markets remain. They may be concerned by the prospect of a return to monetary policy tightening in the US, the lingering doubts over bank profitability and loan quality, and limited further space to ease monetary and fiscal policy if required.  The outlook for US monetary policy will be important and key events this week will be watched closely.  We see the wages data at end week particularly important in the wake of a benign wage growth outlook in the 16 March FOMC meeting.

AmpGFX - US Wages Data a Potential Flash Point, Global Markets Inflection Point

China

China Cinda Asset Management Company Ltd. provides asset management services. The Company invests, disposes, and manages non-performing assets and equity. China Cinda Asset Management also provides consulting, investment, financial, and risk management services to individuals and businesses.

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China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK)

Global Macro Take: WK 15. False Gods Be Damned….

Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the...

Kay Van-Petersen

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy. Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the...

Mark Artherton

China Bank Profit on the Way to Contraction

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Regulatory Changes to Credit Risk

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets,...

Daniel Tabbush

AmpGFX - US Wages Data a Potential Flash Point, Global Markets Inflection Point

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point. They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of...

Greg Gibbs

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