Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

In today's digitized world, everything is connected and&nbsp;&nbsp;'smart' - our phones are packed with ever more functionality, we can surf the net directly from our TVs and our fitness trackers can dish out tons of metrics regarding our habits. Internet of things takes this one step further; by attaching sensors to every day and typically non-digital things, it promises&nbsp;to make everything around us 'smart'. This insight is an overview of the industry, its market potential and some thoughts on how to invest in it.

In today's digitized world, everything is connected and&nbsp;&nbsp;'smart' - our phones are packed with ever more functionality, we can surf the net directly from our TVs and our fitness trackers can dish out tons of metrics regarding our habits. Internet of things takes this one step further; by attaching sensors to every day and typically non-digital things, it promises&nbsp;to make everything around us 'smart'. This insight is an overview of the industry, its market potential and some thoughts on how to invest in it.

Investing in the Internet of Things (IoT)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

CRCC High Tech Equipment Corp Ltd (H) / Equity Capital Markets

We have examined CRCC High-Tech's business fundamentals in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-early-thoughts-crcc-high-tech-domestic-market-peaks-exports-banned" target="_blank">IPO Early Thoughts</a>. The company recently launched its IPO to raise US$360-390m. <ul><li>In addition to what we have discussed earlier, we further highlight its under investment in the past, which is in strong contrast with its ambitious future plans</li><li>Growth expectation appears to be too high</li><li>Our Smartkarma framework rates the deal below borderline for participation </li></ul>More below the fold...

We have examined CRCC High-Tech's business fundamentals in our IPO Early Thoughts. The company recently launched its IPO to raise US$360-390m. In addition to what we have discussed earlier, we further highlight its under investment in the past, which is in strong contrast with its ambitious future plansGrowth expectation appears to be too highOur Smartkarma framework rates the deal below borderline for participation More below the fold...

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

China Energy Engineering / Equity Capital Markets

China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC) plans to raise US$1.8-2.0bn through its IPO. It&nbsp;has locked in twenty (mostly government affiliated) cornerstone investors, who will take up over 60% of the deal.We&nbsp;remain lukewarm about the IPO, given:<ul><li>The company's main expertise lie in designing and constructing fossil fuel plants,&nbsp;investment in which is flat lining</li><li>Overseas orders have been coming through thick and fast but don't seem to be flowing through as fast to revenue, and hence, overseas accounts for&nbsp;a smaller proportion of revenue</li><li>Valuation isn't demanding, but growth prospects remain dim</li><li>The deal scores a mixed score on our framework</li></ul>

China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC) plans to raise US$1.8-2.0bn through its IPO. It&nbsp;has locked in twenty (mostly government affiliated) cornerstone investors, who will take up over 60% of the deal.We&nbsp;remain lukewarm about the IPO, given:The company's main expertise lie in designing and constructing fossil fuel plants,&nbsp;investment in which is flat liningOverseas orders have been coming through thick and fast but don't seem to be flowing through as fast to revenue, and hence, overseas accounts for&nbsp;a smaller proportion of revenueValuation isn't demanding, but growth prospects remain dimThe deal scores a mixed score on our framework

Well past Its Prime - Domestic Growth Slowing, While Overseas Projects Remain Slow Moving

China

China Railway Construction Corporation Limited provides transportation infrastructure construction services. The Company constructs railway, highway, urban track, and other infrastructure. China Railway Construction also provides real estate development and materials trading services.

China Railway Construction Cor (601186 CH)

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China Railway Construction Cor (601186 CH)

China and the EM Ugly Contest

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately...

John-Paul Smith

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to...

Charles De Trenck

Investing in the Internet of Things (IoT)

In today's digitized world, everything is connected and 'smart' - our phones are packed with ever more functionality, we can surf the net directly...

Ishita Jain

CRCC High-Tech IPO: A High Tech Irony

We have examined CRCC High-Tech's business fundamentals in our IPO Early Thoughts. The company recently launched its IPO to raise US$360-390m. In...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Well past Its Prime - Domestic Growth Slowing, While Overseas Projects Remain Slow Moving

China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC) plans to raise US$1.8-2.0bn through its IPO. It has locked in twenty (mostly government affiliated)...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)