HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

China Shineway Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shineway's revenue experienced negative growth in 24H1 as expected, but net profit performance beat expectations (up 27.5% YoY). However, if excluding those one-time gains, net profit was down 14% YoY.</li>
<li>In 24H2, Shineway’s performance is expected to pick up, and YoY revenue growth 2024 full-year would return to positive (e.g. 5-10% YoY). The only concern is TCM formula granule VBP.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shineway-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6241:1" rel="noopener">China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK)'s </a>overall financial position is healthy.  However, even with large cash balance, the current dividend is not satisfactory, which has more room to improve.</li>
</ul>


Shineway's revenue experienced negative growth in 24H1 as expected, but net profit performance beat expectations (up 27.5% YoY). However, if excluding those one-time gains, net profit was down 14% YoY.
In 24H2, Shineway’s performance is expected to pick up, and YoY revenue growth 2024 full-year would return to positive (e.g. 5-10% YoY). The only concern is TCM formula granule VBP.

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK)'s overall financial position is healthy.  However, even with large cash balance, the current dividend is not satisfactory, which has more room to improve.


China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) - Performance Would Pick up in 24H2

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>’s monthly update notes that the consortium has secured SAMR approval and made progress in obtaining the other regulatory approvals. </li>
<li>As expected, the precondition will not be satisfied before the 18 October long stop date. Unexpectedly, whether the consortium members will consent to the extension remains uncertain.</li>
<li>The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from a deal break, the time investment is significant, and the warning was legally required.</li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update notes that the consortium has secured SAMR approval and made progress in obtaining the other regulatory approvals. 
As expected, the precondition will not be satisfied before the 18 October long stop date. Unexpectedly, whether the consortium members will consent to the extension remains uncertain.
The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from a deal break, the time investment is significant, and the warning was legally required.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Theatre of the Absurd

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes. </li>
<li>The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM's profits or prospects.</li>
<li>If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote. </li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes. 
The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM's profits or prospects.
If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote. 


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.</li>
<li>Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.</li>
<li>Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.</li>
</ul>


With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.
Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.
Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>’s monthly update reinforces the bull case. The gross spread has remained uncomfortably high since falling on no news on 26 June. </li>
<li>The monthly update will relieve the bulls, as the consortium has finally made the regulatory submissions. The update stresses that the filing delay is due to an unwieldy consortium. </li>
<li>Potential stumbling blocks remain, which should not be an issue. Nevertheless, the risk (17.7% downside to the undisturbed price)/reward (21.4% gross spread) remains attractive. </li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update reinforces the bull case. The gross spread has remained uncomfortably high since falling on no news on 26 June. 
The monthly update will relieve the bulls, as the consortium has finally made the regulatory submissions. The update stresses that the filing delay is due to an unwieldy consortium. 
Potential stumbling blocks remain, which should not be an issue. Nevertheless, the risk (17.7% downside to the undisturbed price)/reward (21.4% gross spread) remains attractive. 


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls

China

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) is the largest manufacturer of Chinese medicine injections, soft capsules, and granules in China.

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China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK)