Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The vast majority of under-educated Chinese in less-developed regions are largely irrelevant to the China consumer market as investors and analysts know it.</li>
<li>That is why that simple benchmarking with developed markets on per capita basis almost always results in forecasts that prove too optimistic in hindsight.</li>
<li>They risk being further left behind as technology advancements and economic transformation may block the path for their income growth and hence derail consumption upgrade.</li>
</ul>


The vast majority of under-educated Chinese in less-developed regions are largely irrelevant to the China consumer market as investors and analysts know it.
That is why that simple benchmarking with developed markets on per capita basis almost always results in forecasts that prove too optimistic in hindsight.
They risk being further left behind as technology advancements and economic transformation may block the path for their income growth and hence derail consumption upgrade.


What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)</a> announced preliminary results for 3Q23 which came in below market expectations.</li>
<li>Compared to the previous quarter 2Q23, sales declined by 1% q-o-q, while net profit margin declined from 10.4% in 2Q23 to 8.9% in 3Q23. </li>
<li>The company (H-share) is trading at 26x 2023E PE and 23x 2024E PE, still expensive as visibility is low and derating continues. </li>
</ul>



China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) announced preliminary results for 3Q23 which came in below market expectations.
Compared to the previous quarter 2Q23, sales declined by 1% q-o-q, while net profit margin declined from 10.4% in 2Q23 to 8.9% in 3Q23. 
The company (H-share) is trading at 26x 2023E PE and 23x 2024E PE, still expensive as visibility is low and derating continues. 


China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK):  Weak Golden Week Trends And Still Expensive

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 114.4% as of Sep 8th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -3.9ppt week on week, led by real estate, consumer staples, communication services and offset by consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huadian Power, Huaneng Power, Shanghai Elect, China Longyuan, Aluminum Corp.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 114.4% as of Sep 8th.
The average A-H premium changed by -3.9ppt week on week, led by real estate, consumer staples, communication services and offset by consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huadian Power, Huaneng Power, Shanghai Elect, China Longyuan, Aluminum Corp.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 8th): Huadian Power, Huaneng Power, Shanghai Electric, China Longyuan

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.0% as of Jul 28th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week on week, led by information technology, communication services, energy and offset by health care, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Vanke, CITIC Sec, China Pacific, BYD, CMOC, GF Sec, CICC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.0% as of Jul 28th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week on week, led by information technology, communication services, energy and offset by health care, consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Vanke, CITIC Sec, China Pacific, BYD, CMOC, GF Sec, CICC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 28th): China Vanke, CITIC Sec, China Pacific, BYD, CMOC, GF Sec, CICC

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 119.0% as of Jun 23rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 4.9ppt week on week, led by information technology, health care, industrials and offset by communication services, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BYD, CMOC, China Southern, Cansino Biologics, Xinjiang Gold.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 119.0% as of Jun 23rd.
The average A-H premium changed by 4.9ppt week on week, led by information technology, health care, industrials and offset by communication services, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BYD, CMOC, China Southern, Cansino Biologics, Xinjiang Gold.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 23rd): BYD, CMOC, China Southern, Cansino Biologics, Xinjiang Gold

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

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China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)

What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

The majority of under-educated Chinese in lower-tier cities is irrelevant to China consumer market as we know it. Be cautious with simple...

Eric Chen