Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for house price growth (new homes and the secondary market) for 70 major cities in December 2023 indicates further declines </li>
<li>Aggregate figures and averages may not reflect the 'on-the-ground' feel, but the relative performance of cities should give a good indication of city-level dynamics</li>
<li>Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price growth</li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for house price growth (new homes and the secondary market) for 70 major cities in December 2023 indicates further declines 
Aggregate figures and averages may not reflect the 'on-the-ground' feel, but the relative performance of cities should give a good indication of city-level dynamics
Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price growth


China Official House Price Growth Rates Turn More Negative In December 2023

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunny Optical Technology Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Yuexiu Property </a></li><li><a href='/entities/vedanta-resources-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Vedanta Resources</a></li><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/adani-ports-special-economic-zone-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Sunny Optical Technology GroupYuexiu Property Vedanta ResourcesTata Motors LtdAdani Ports & Special Economic Zoneand more...

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) data shows a spike in December, though 2023 still ended with a lower PSL increase than 2022</li>
<li>The latest increase is seen by some as a signal of support ultimately for the property sector, though we think this is very different from the 2014-2015 stimulus</li>
<li>The previous increases in 2022 were associated with support for the completion of unfinished development projects, and in 2014-2018, with shantytown renovation schemes, incl. "monetarization"</li>
</ul>


China's Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) data shows a spike in December, though 2023 still ended with a lower PSL increase than 2022
The latest increase is seen by some as a signal of support ultimately for the property sector, though we think this is very different from the 2014-2015 stimulus
The previous increases in 2022 were associated with support for the completion of unfinished development projects, and in 2014-2018, with shantytown renovation schemes, incl. "monetarization"


China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context

In our inaugural Asian Monthly for 2024, we discuss the regional credit outlook for the year, with a focus on China, India, Indonesia as well as our favoured bonds. We also provide a review of 2023, including new Asian USD corporate bond issuances and defaults last year.

  In our inaugural Asian Monthly for 2024, we discuss the regional credit outlook for the year, with a focus on China, India, Indonesia as well as our favoured bonds. We also provide a review of 2023, including new Asian USD corporate bond issuances and defaults last year. 

Asia Monthly - 2024 Asia Credit Outlook And 2023 In Review - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/agile-property-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Agile Property Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Vanke </a></li><li><a href='/entities/indika-energy-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Indika Energy</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sk-hynix-inc' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>SK Hynix</a></li><li><a href='/entities/vedanta-resources-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Vedanta Resources</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Agile Property HoldingsChina Vanke Indika EnergySK HynixVedanta Resourcesand more...

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

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China Vanke (000002 CH)

China Official House Price Growth Rates Turn More Negative In December 2023

China House Prices: Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price...

Robert Ciemniak

Weekly Wrap - 12 Jan 2024

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context

China Macro-Property: In this note, we look briefly at the latest spike in Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) in December 2023, putting it into...

Robert Ciemniak

Asia Monthly - 2024 Asia Credit Outlook And 2023 In Review - Lucror Analytics

In our inaugural Asian Monthly for 2024, we discuss the regional credit outlook for the year, with a focus on China, India, Indonesia as well as...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 05 Jan 2024

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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