Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is hard to envisage how the two opposing data sets can co-exist without something worrisome happening behind the scenes. Here we look at annual growth of loan interest income for China’s banks, and the story is bizarre, to say the least. <div class="content-highlight">
Growth in China banks’ loan interest income on a quarterly basis is now negative at 1Q16.
This is totally new.
</div>It is also at complete odds with rampant loan growth. We must remind that this interest income is for loans only, it is not for wealth management…

It is hard to envisage how the two opposing data sets can co-exist without something worrisome happening behind the scenes. Here we look at annual growth of loan interest income for China’s banks, and the story is bizarre, to say the least. 
Growth in China banks’ loan interest income on a quarterly basis is now negative at 1Q16.
This is totally new.
It is also at complete odds with rampant loan growth. We must remind that this interest income is for loans only, it is not for wealth management…

China - Something Happening Here, Exactly What Isn't Clear

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

For all the concern focused on the Chinese economy, financial markets, and credit, the RMB dominates them all.  If a hard landing or crisis like scenario were to take place, it would undoubtedly involve significant devaluation.Aware of this dynamic the PBOC has been working to control both the price and the flow of the CNY, CNH, and the accompanying assorted derivatives resulting in clear market distortions, some of which we have covered here.  The impact of official intervention, though we…

For all the concern focused on the Chinese economy, financial markets, and credit, the RMB dominates them all.  If a hard landing or crisis like scenario were to take place, it would undoubtedly involve significant devaluation.Aware of this dynamic the PBOC has been working to control both the price and the flow of the CNY, CNH, and the accompanying assorted derivatives resulting in clear market distortions, some of which we have covered here.  The impact of official intervention, though we…

RMB Report: Near Term Stability, Long Term Depreciation

International bank transaction data was released on the 20th and we believe this provides a better gauge of currency flows than more widely reported data.  There are large acknowledged discrepancies between Customs report import, export, and surplus numbers and the bank reported data due to fraudulent payment or invoicing issues.  This then permeates the calculations on balance of payment and other flow issues that provide serious distortions on currency flows.Current account based upon…

International bank transaction data was released on the 20th and we believe this provides a better gauge of currency flows than more widely reported data.  There are large acknowledged discrepancies between Customs report import, export, and surplus numbers and the bank reported data due to fraudulent payment or invoicing issues.  This then permeates the calculations on balance of payment and other flow issues that provide serious distortions on currency flows.Current account based upon…

RMB Outflows Continue As Inflows Collapsing

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

China's leadership is aware of the weaknesses in its armed forces, who have been found to be physically unfit, untested, unmotivated  and corrupt. Two recent examples show just how weak the armed forces are at dealing with natural disasters, let alone a situation where national security was at stake.

China's leadership is aware of the weaknesses in its armed forces, who have been found to be physically unfit, untested, unmotivated  and corrupt. Two recent examples show just how weak the armed forces are at dealing with natural disasters, let alone a situation where national security was at stake.

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit costs. But China’s banks are quietly facing a vanishing of their asset yields and therefore, net interest margins (NIM). Where interest rates are not coming down in the quarter, we suspect that much of the worsening in asset yields and NIM is due to loans not paying market rates.These may more affectionately be called NPLs, restructured loans or…

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit costs. But China’s banks are quietly facing a vanishing of their asset yields and therefore, net interest margins (NIM). Where interest rates are not coming down in the quarter, we suspect that much of the worsening in asset yields and NIM is due to loans not paying market rates.These may more affectionately be called NPLs, restructured loans or…

China

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd. provides various types of personal and corporate banking and financial services.  The Company's services including deposits, loans and bonds, domestic clearing, bank card, bill discounting, agent distribution, cashing and underwriting government bonds, guarantees, and payments and insurance agency .

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK)

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Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK)

China - Something Happening Here, Exactly What Isn't Clear

It is hard to envisage how the two opposing data sets can co-exist without something worrisome happening behind the scenes. Here we look at annual...

Daniel Tabbush

RMB Report: Near Term Stability, Long Term Depreciation

For all the concern focused on the Chinese economy, financial markets, and credit, the RMB dominates them all. If a hard landing or crisis like...

Christopher Balding

RMB Outflows Continue As Inflows Collapsing

International bank transaction data was released on the 20th and we believe this provides a better gauge of currency flows than more widely...

Christopher Balding

The Chinese Military: Fit for Purpose?

China's leadership is aware of the weaknesses in its armed forces, who have been found to be physically unfit, untested, unmotivated and corrupt....

Bixmoor

The Quiet Collapse in China Bank Margins

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit...

Daniel Tabbush

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