Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2024 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th September 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.</li>
<li>We have also highlighted certain names with noticeable movements in short interest.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2024 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th September 2024.
In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.
We have also highlighted certain names with noticeable movements in short interest.


Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In last month’s monetary policy decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rate unchanged at 4.35%.</li>
<li>According to a Reuters poll, a majority of the economists predicted interest rates to remain unchanged in the current quarter, followed by a 25bps cut to 4.10% in 4Q24.</li>
<li>Amid possible rate cut talks both in the domestic as well as the U.S. market, we want to take a look at Australian biotech companies.</li>
</ul>


In last month’s monetary policy decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rate unchanged at 4.35%.
According to a Reuters poll, a majority of the economists predicted interest rates to remain unchanged in the current quarter, followed by a 25bps cut to 4.10% in 4Q24.
Amid possible rate cut talks both in the domestic as well as the U.S. market, we want to take a look at Australian biotech companies.


Australian Biotech Companies Amid Talk of Likely Interest Rate Cut

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/circadian-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13546:1" rel="noopener">Opthea Ltd (OPT AU)</a> is seeking to raise A$80M ($51M) through a combination of private placement and accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer. The proceeds will fund the clinical development of OPT-302.</li>
<li>The proceeds of the offer, pending funds from the earlier agreements, along with existing cash balance, are expected to fund the company’s operation through Q3 2024.</li>
<li>OPT-302 is in two phase 3 trials, which are expected to be fully enrolled by 1H24. In phase 2 trial, OPT-302 has demonstrated superior visual acuity over standard of care.</li>
</ul>



Opthea Ltd (OPT AU) is seeking to raise A$80M ($51M) through a combination of private placement and accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer. The proceeds will fund the clinical development of OPT-302.
The proceeds of the offer, pending funds from the earlier agreements, along with existing cash balance, are expected to fund the company’s operation through Q3 2024.
OPT-302 is in two phase 3 trials, which are expected to be fully enrolled by 1H24. In phase 2 trial, OPT-302 has demonstrated superior visual acuity over standard of care.


Opthea (OPT AU): Kicks Off A$80M Capital Raise To Support Phase 3 Trial of Lead Drug Candidate

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/circadian-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13546:1" rel="noopener">Opthea Ltd (OPT AU)</a> secured up to $170M in non-dilutive financing from Launch Therapeutics, which is backed by  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>  and its life sciences franchise, Abingworth.</li>
<li>Opthea has closed $90 million equity financing placement at a price of A$1.15 per share in two tranches. Further, the company has raised A$5 million through right issue.</li>
<li>These strategic transactions are expected to fund Opthea through Phase 3 topline data expected in mid-2024 and strengthens its strategic position to maximize the value of OPT-302.</li>
</ul>



Opthea Ltd (OPT AU) secured up to $170M in non-dilutive financing from Launch Therapeutics, which is backed by  Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)  and its life sciences franchise, Abingworth.
Opthea has closed $90 million equity financing placement at a price of A$1.15 per share in two tranches. Further, the company has raised A$5 million through right issue.
These strategic transactions are expected to fund Opthea through Phase 3 topline data expected in mid-2024 and strengthens its strategic position to maximize the value of OPT-302.


Opthea Ltd (OPT AU): Secured Funds as Lead Eye Drug Candidate Advancing in Phase 3 Trials

Australia

Opthea Limited is a biologics drug developer for ophthalmic diseases. The Company develops therapies for diabetic macular edema, corneal neovascularization and transplantation, and dry eye disease. Opthea serves patients and healthcare providers in Australia.

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Opthea Ltd (OPT AU)

Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance

Yancoal (YAL AU) and Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) will be added to both ASX 200 and ASX 300. These were the biggest surprises for the September 2024...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

There could be 30 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes and...

Brian Freitas

Australian Biotech Companies Amid Talk of Likely Interest Rate Cut

RBA keeps interest rates steady at 4.35%, while economists predict possible cut to 4.10% in 4Q24. Australian biotech companies should be in focus...

Tina Banerjee

Opthea (OPT AU): Kicks Off A$80M Capital Raise To Support Phase 3 Trial of Lead Drug Candidate

Opthea will raise A$80M via a combination of private placement and accelerated non-renounceable right offer. Proceeds from the offer and existing...

Tina Banerjee

Opthea Ltd (OPT AU): Secured Funds as Lead Eye Drug Candidate Advancing in Phase 3 Trials

Opthea secured up to $170M financing from Carlyle and done $90M equity financing placement. The company’s successful fund raising is an affirmation...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance

Yancoal (YAL AU) and Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) will be added to both ASX 200 and ASX 300. These were the biggest surprises for the September 2024...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

There could be 30 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes and...

Brian Freitas

Australian Biotech Companies Amid Talk of Likely Interest Rate Cut

​RBA keeps interest rates steady at 4.35%, while economists predict possible cut to 4.10% in 4Q24. Australian biotech companies should be in focus...

Tina Banerjee

Opthea (OPT AU): Kicks Off A$80M Capital Raise To Support Phase 3 Trial of Lead Drug Candidate

Opthea will raise A$80M via a combination of private placement and accelerated non-renounceable right offer. Proceeds from the offer and existing...

Tina Banerjee

Opthea Ltd (OPT AU): Secured Funds as Lead Eye Drug Candidate Advancing in Phase 3 Trials

Opthea secured up to $170M financing from Carlyle and done $90M equity financing placement. The company’s successful fund raising is an affirmation...

Tina Banerjee

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

RBA keeps interest rates steady at 4.35%, while economists predict possible cut to 4.10% in 4Q24. Australian biotech companies should be in focus...