ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a>.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, a sector insight on Malaysian Banks, and a credit insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-dunia-makmur-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9334:1" rel="noopener">Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Sea Ltd (SE US), Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ), AMMB Holdings (AMM MK), and Sheng Siong (SSG SP).
There were also macro insights on Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, a sector insight on Malaysian Banks, and a credit insight on Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID IJ).
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Sea Ltd's Scale, Cimory's Dairy Recovery, and AMMB Placement

Equity Bottom-Up

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy</a> booked a solid finish to FY2023, with FY2023 sales growth of +21.9% and net profit growth of +17.0% YoY, as it spent to grow new product sales.</li>
<li>Slower dairy was more than offset by the strong growth in premium consumer foods but dairy products are set to grow faster in 2024 through UHT milk and yoghurt sticks.</li>
<li>Consumer food growth momentum should be sustained by new product launches such as new products such Kanzler Crispy Nuggets Sticks. Valuations remain attractive relative to growth.</li>
</ul>



Cisarua Mountain Dairy booked a solid finish to FY2023, with FY2023 sales growth of +21.9% and net profit growth of +17.0% YoY, as it spent to grow new product sales.
Slower dairy was more than offset by the strong growth in premium consumer foods but dairy products are set to grow faster in 2024 through UHT milk and yoghurt sticks.
Consumer food growth momentum should be sustained by new product launches such as new products such Kanzler Crispy Nuggets Sticks. Valuations remain attractive relative to growth.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) - Catering to the Demand for Convenience

<ul>
<li>Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.</li>
<li>Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. </li>
<li>We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.</li>
</ul>


Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.
Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. 
We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.


Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ)</a> is back to the boil in terms of sales growth for both its dairy and carton tea businesses, which both benefit from a nominalisation of mobility. </li>
<li>The company's margins have improved in the dairy business as cost pressure has abated with falling powdered milk prices. Competition has picked up but the overall market is growing sufficiently. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk</a> will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in 2024. Valuations are attractive.</li>
</ul>



Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) is back to the boil in terms of sales growth for both its dairy and carton tea businesses, which both benefit from a nominalisation of mobility. 
The company's margins have improved in the dairy business as cost pressure has abated with falling powdered milk prices. Competition has picked up but the overall market is growing sufficiently. 

Ultrajaya Milk will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in 2024. Valuations are attractive.


Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - The Milkmaid Cometh

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</a> has weathered the worst of higher raw material prices and is now seeing the benefits of lower input costs, benefiting margins.</li>
<li>The company is a core beneficiary of pre-election spending as its products are often given as gifts during campaigning. ICBP is also seeing strong performance in its export markets.</li>
<li>ICBP should increasingly be seen as an emerging market staples player, with globally recognised brands such as Indomie and Chitato. Valuations do not reflect this.</li>
</ul>



Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ) has weathered the worst of higher raw material prices and is now seeing the benefits of lower input costs, benefiting margins.
The company is a core beneficiary of pre-election spending as its products are often given as gifts during campaigning. ICBP is also seeing strong performance in its export markets.
ICBP should increasingly be seen as an emerging market staples player, with globally recognised brands such as Indomie and Chitato. Valuations do not reflect this.


Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ) - FMCG On Track at Home and Abroad

Indonesia

PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy TBK produces diary products. The Company offers milk and yogurt. Cisarua Mountain Dairy serves customer in Indonesia.

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Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Sea Ltd's Scale, Cimory's Dairy Recovery, and AMMB Placement

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh