Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Is Gold breaking out?We are coming close to KISS moving average indicators suggesting some further critical breakdowns in equities relative to gold, while gold to oil in the last few trading sessions broke a record set in 1973, and in terms of volatility and “absolutes” oil has probably not been cheaper in real terms.We might not be facing the same order of problem as 2008 at this stage (with the GFC so fresh in our minds), but the price guides are herding us closer to a similar sell-off situation we last saw in 2008. Best not to trade shares and focus trading on volatility (VIX, VXX, etc.) while we keep looking for our long term accumulate opportunities that appear during panic sell-offs.  Gold remains a key portfolio counterweight. Continued evidence enclosed.

Is Gold breaking out?We are coming close to KISS moving average indicators suggesting some further critical breakdowns in equities relative to gold, while gold to oil in the last few trading sessions broke a record set in 1973, and in terms of volatility and “absolutes” oil has probably not been cheaper in real terms.We might not be facing the same order of problem as 2008 at this stage (with the GFC so fresh in our minds), but the price guides are herding us closer to a similar sell-off situation we last saw in 2008. Best not to trade shares and focus trading on volatility (VIX, VXX, etc.) while we keep looking for our long term accumulate opportunities that appear during panic sell-offs.  Gold remains a key portfolio counterweight. Continued evidence enclosed.

Are We Moving from Industrial Crisis to Financial Crisis? (2008 Being a Property to Financial Move)

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

* CNY remains under pressure given the economic slowdown, concerns about debt and capital outflows* China's FX reserves look more than enough, but true adequacy depends on the nature of the FX regime* China can go forward or back on the FX regime; loosening controls on foreign flows sends a bold message* Expect greater flexibility of the CNY basket and wider bands, sooner rather than later, ahead of SDR* CNY will be a basket currency not a basket case and short-term weakness against the USD will not last

* CNY remains under pressure given the economic slowdown, concerns about debt and capital outflows* China's FX reserves look more than enough, but true adequacy depends on the nature of the FX regime* China can go forward or back on the FX regime; loosening controls on foreign flows sends a bold message* Expect greater flexibility of the CNY basket and wider bands, sooner rather than later, ahead of SDR* CNY will be a basket currency not a basket case and short-term weakness against the USD will not last

Asia Calling: CNY - A Basket Currency, Not a Basket Case

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician "Alex" suggests not. The oil market remains firmly streteched because of the supply-demand imbalance right now offering no suggestion of a sustainable rebound. Hold-off entering tactical longs in risky assets for now.

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician "Alex" suggests not. The oil market remains firmly streteched because of the supply-demand imbalance right now offering no suggestion of a sustainable rebound. Hold-off entering tactical longs in risky assets for now.       

Based on a lot of long term data, and looking closely at daily patterns the nature of oversold oil becomes apparent. Were it not for China’s wasteful excesses, of course, we would not have had the level of painful upward then downward spikes in commodity prices over the last decade. And there is the issue of long term paying the piper for all the debt we have accumulated for the over-production.But further analysis of the S&amp;P 500/oil, S&amp;P 500/gold and Gold/oil speaks volumes on how to position portfolios and what risks to continue preparing for.  In addition to additional graphs and data tables I have included selected data downloads for further re-configuration.Oil is currently tied with 1973 for the cheapest it has been in our modern era.

Based on a lot of long term data, and looking closely at daily patterns the nature of oversold oil becomes apparent. Were it not for China’s wasteful excesses, of course, we would not have had the level of painful upward then downward spikes in commodity prices over the last decade. And there is the issue of long term paying the piper for all the debt we have accumulated for the over-production.But further analysis of the S&amp;P 500/oil, S&amp;P 500/gold and Gold/oil speaks volumes on how to position portfolios and what risks to continue preparing for.  In addition to additional graphs and data tables I have included selected data downloads for further re-configuration.Oil is currently tied with 1973 for the cheapest it has been in our modern era.

Oil Now Tied for Cheapest in 50+ Years Using Most Objective Metric (Graphs and Data Follow-Ons)

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (ADR) (CEO US)

Are We Moving from Industrial Crisis to Financial Crisis? (2008 Being a Property to Financial Move)

Is Gold breaking out?We are coming close to KISS moving average indicators suggesting some further critical breakdowns in equities relative to...

Charles De Trenck

Asia Calling: CNY - A Basket Currency, Not a Basket Case

* CNY remains under pressure given the economic slowdown, concerns about debt and capital outflows* China's FX reserves look more than enough, but...

Callum Henderson

'Should You Trust the Bounce? '

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician...

ClearMacro

Oil Now Tied for Cheapest in 50+ Years Using Most Objective Metric (Graphs and Data Follow-Ons)

Based on a lot of long term data, and looking closely at daily patterns the nature of oversold oil becomes apparent. Were it not for China’s...

Charles De Trenck

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping...

Greg Gibbs

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