Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A victory for Lai in the upcoming election has the potential to significantly elevate geopolitical risks.</li><li>Should Taipei fail to maintain a satisfactory relationship with Beijing threats of retaliation will fuel derisking going forwardThe Taiwan election could reignite another round of cold trade sanctions between the United States and China.</li><li>Given the current hawkishness of the Biden administration, it’s unlikely that this stance will be softened in the upcoming U.S. election.</li></ul>

A victory for Lai in the upcoming election has the potential to significantly elevate geopolitical risks.Should Taipei fail to maintain a satisfactory relationship with Beijing threats of retaliation will fuel derisking going forwardThe Taiwan election could reignite another round of cold trade sanctions between the United States and China.Given the current hawkishness of the Biden administration, it’s unlikely that this stance will be softened in the upcoming U.S. election.

EM by EM #37: The Taiwan election & the Trade war

<ul><li>Main conclusions up-front:It’s getting harder to disentangle politics from price movements in China, with the government becoming more involved in the equity market.</li><li>In stark contrast to their U.S. counterparts, Chinese banks are grappling with the weight of growing savings from consumers and businesses.</li><li>This surge is impacting their profitability, while the real estate sector’s challenges continue to linger.</li></ul>

Main conclusions up-front:It’s getting harder to disentangle politics from price movements in China, with the government becoming more involved in the equity market.In stark contrast to their U.S. counterparts, Chinese banks are grappling with the weight of growing savings from consumers and businesses.This surge is impacting their profitability, while the real estate sector’s challenges continue to linger.

EM by EM #36: What Goldman got wrong about China in 2023

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The equity market has been celebrating over the past couple of months and it seems like the economic consensus is moving towards a soft landing or even a no landing / re-acceleration at lightning speed.</li><li>Equities tend to trade closely connected to the cyclical components of the US economy with a strong correlation between ISM Manufacturing and annual returns in the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>Most recent trends partially represent a bet on a rebound in the economic cycle in 2024, which looks unlikely in most of our medium-term forward looking models.</li></ul>

The equity market has been celebrating over the past couple of months and it seems like the economic consensus is moving towards a soft landing or even a no landing / re-acceleration at lightning speed.Equities tend to trade closely connected to the cyclical components of the US economy with a strong correlation between ISM Manufacturing and annual returns in the S&amp;P 500.Most recent trends partially represent a bet on a rebound in the economic cycle in 2024, which looks unlikely in most of our medium-term forward looking models.

Credit Watch: Nothing in the credit impulse speaks in favour of a 2024 comeback

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.</li>
<li>Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.</li>
<li>We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.</li>
</ul>


After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.
Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.
We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

<ul><li>Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.</li><li>Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.</li><li>Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.</li></ul>

Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.

EM by EM #35:  China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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EM by EM #37: The Taiwan election & the Trade war

Main takeaways:A victory for Lai in the upcoming election has the potential to significantly elevate geopolitical risks. Should Taipei fail to...

Steno Research

EM by EM #36: What Goldman got wrong about China in 2023

Main conclusions up-front:It’s getting harder to disentangle politics from price movements in China, with the government becoming more involved in...

Steno Research

Credit Watch: Nothing in the credit impulse speaks in favour of a 2024 comeback

***We release this article instead of our “Something for your Espresso” daily. Our normal live coverage will be back on Wed 27. We will release...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

We will be watching the Chinese credit impulse closely for clues on whether to take on positive bets on China and China proxies in 2024.

Steno Research

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