Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened</li>
<li>European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.</li>
<li>I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.</li>
</ul>


The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened
European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.
I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.</li>
<li>The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.</li>
<li>With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.
The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.
With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The turnaround of Asian currencies is likely to continue with growth resurfacing in the region ex-China and the interest rate differential with the rest of emerging markets narrowing.</li>
<li>The main risks to watch are whether the slowdown in China worsens and weighs on the region as a whole and whether central banks embark on FX interventions again.</li>
<li>While the overall view on Asian currencies is constructive, I prefer cross-country trades to take advantage of differences arising from idiosyncratic drivers and to eliminate the dollar risk.</li>
</ul>


The turnaround of Asian currencies is likely to continue with growth resurfacing in the region ex-China and the interest rate differential with the rest of emerging markets narrowing.
The main risks to watch are whether the slowdown in China worsens and weighs on the region as a whole and whether central banks embark on FX interventions again.
While the overall view on Asian currencies is constructive, I prefer cross-country trades to take advantage of differences arising from idiosyncratic drivers and to eliminate the dollar risk.


Drivers Behind the Turnaround of Asian Currencies

<ul>
<li>The US dollar has started appreciating again on the back of a safe-haven bid with risk aversion rising due to the Fed's upcoming rate-hiking cycle and the Russia-Ukraine tensions.</li>
<li>Given my expectation of rising dollar volatility, I had recommended hedging a diversified EMFX portfolio with the euro. Indeed, the euro hedge has worked well over the past three months.</li>
<li>I continue to prescribe maintaining the euro hedge. If the dollar remains volatile, I don't expect the low volatility of EM currencies – dragged lower by Asia – to persist. </li>
</ul>


The US dollar has started appreciating again on the back of a safe-haven bid with risk aversion rising due to the Fed's upcoming rate-hiking cycle and the Russia-Ukraine tensions.
Given my expectation of rising dollar volatility, I had recommended hedging a diversified EMFX portfolio with the euro. Indeed, the euro hedge has worked well over the past three months.
I continue to prescribe maintaining the euro hedge. If the dollar remains volatile, I don't expect the low volatility of EM currencies – dragged lower by Asia – to persist. 


Value of Euro as a Hedge for EM Currencies in Times Like These

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.</li>
<li>Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.
Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.
I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Buy at the Sound of Cannons

The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened

Untying The Gordian Knot

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

We see the HSCEI 2022 div futures trading in line with our estimates while there could be more downside to the 2022/23 div spread. We'd look to get...

Brian Freitas

Drivers Behind the Turnaround of Asian Currencies

The turnaround of Asian currencies is likely to continue with growth resurfacing in the region ex-China and interest rate differential with the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Value of Euro as a Hedge for EM Currencies in Times Like These

Given my expectation that the dollar should remain volatile in the near term, I continue to recommend maintaining a euro hedge for a diversified...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have closed 21 of the 31 trades recommended...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)