Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

EM FX volatility has dropped to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, which is likely leading to a positive scenario for currencies. In this note, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

EM FX volatility has dropped to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, which is likely leading to a positive scenario for currencies. In this note, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Declining EM FX Volatility Foreshadows a Positive Environment

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia forex market volatility falls to near 40-year lows</li>
<li>Notional Asian ‘Euro’ trading within narrow band since 2016</li>
<li>Yuan positioning like Deutschmark within the Euro ‘Euro’</li>
<li>China well-served by such arrangements</li>
<li>Implies as USD devalues Asia gains liquidity and Europe loses export competitiveness</li>
</ul>


Asia forex market volatility falls to near 40-year lows
Notional Asian ‘Euro’ trading within narrow band since 2016
Yuan positioning like Deutschmark within the Euro ‘Euro’
China well-served by such arrangements
Implies as USD devalues Asia gains liquidity and Europe loses export competitiveness
 

The Asian ‘Euro’ (¥¥): Does It Already Exist?

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

Despite its recent underperformance, we reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start tightening monetary policy this year. In our view, the concerns regarding the upcoming change at the helm of the central bank are overstated.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

Despite its recent underperformance, we reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start tightening monetary policy this year. In our view, the concerns regarding the upcoming change at the helm of the central bank are overstated.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on Mexican Peso

The US dollar has weakened since the end of March, leaving it flat from the start of the year. If the dollar moves sideways for the time being, as we expect, then it should lead to a carry trade environment. We identify the best EM currencies for such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The US dollar has weakened since the end of March, leaving it flat from the start of the year. If the dollar moves sideways for the time being, as we expect, then it should lead to a carry trade environment. We identify the best EM currencies for such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies to Target in a Carry Trade Environment?

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Declining EM FX Volatility Foreshadows a Positive Environment

With EM FX volatility dropping to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in the likely...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

The Asian ‘Euro’ (¥¥): Does It Already Exist?

An Asian 'Euro' may have already formed? If correct there are huge implications for asset allocation, such as buying Asian stocks and European bonds.

Michael J. Howell

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if the US dollar becomes rangebound going forward, taking away the impetus for...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on Mexican Peso

We reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies to Target in a Carry Trade Environment?

If the dollar moves sideways for the time being, as we expect, then it should lead to a carry trade environment. We identify the best EM currencies...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)