Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.</li>
<li>Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.</li>
<li>Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. </li>
</ul>


In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.</li>
<li>Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.</li>
<li>The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. </li>
</ul>


ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.
Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.
The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. 


Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

<ul>
<li>Soft expectations were met by resilient results.</li>
<li>As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.</li>
</ul>


Soft expectations were met by resilient results.
As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.
Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.</li>
<li>While some companies did start to see an improvement in late 1Q25-early 2Q25, a meaningful trend across all covered companies is not identified.</li>
<li>Companies in the meantime are focusing on cost efficiencies and battling competitive pressures, as pricing —and traffic for retailers— is the main driver yet limited by consumers’ elasticity.</li>
</ul>


Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.
While some companies did start to see an improvement in late 1Q25-early 2Q25, a meaningful trend across all covered companies is not identified.
Companies in the meantime are focusing on cost efficiencies and battling competitive pressures, as pricing —and traffic for retailers— is the main driver yet limited by consumers’ elasticity.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 1Q25 Update

Equity Bottom-Up

Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sales grew 10% YoY to P$70.2bn, above our estimates and consensus, and despite consolidated volumes contracting 2.2% YoY, vs our flattish expectations; volumes contracted in Mexico & Central America.</li><li>Excluding FX tailwinds, sales grew 5.9% YoY, and average price per UC, meanwhile, grew 12.7% YoY.</li><li> Profitability was mostly better than expected, driven by cost efficiencies and lower raw material costs, such as sweeteners, while partially offset by FX headwinds from USD-denominated raw materials.</li></ul>

Sales grew 10% YoY to P$70.2bn, above our estimates and consensus, and despite consolidated volumes contracting 2.2% YoY, vs our flattish expectations; volumes contracted in Mexico & Central America.Excluding FX tailwinds, sales grew 5.9% YoY, and average price per UC, meanwhile, grew 12.7% YoY. Profitability was mostly better than expected, driven by cost efficiencies and lower raw material costs, such as sweeteners, while partially offset by FX headwinds from USD-denominated raw materials.

Actinver Research - KOF 1Q25: Healthy results (Quick View)

Mexico

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (Femsa) bottles beverages. The Company bottles and distributes branded beverages in parts of North, Central and South America. In some countries Femsa also markets water, beer, and other products.

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Coca-Cola Femsa Sab De Cv (KOFL MM)

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

We highlight Becle given its solid margin performance, ahead of our previous upbeat estimates, even after accounting for non-recurring items

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Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%,...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

On average, our covered Consumer companies grew top line by 8% YoY (vs. 7% forecasted), and EBITDA by 5% (vs. our 3% estimate).

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Actinver Research - Consumer Post 1Q25 Update

Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.

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Actinver Research - KOF 1Q25: Healthy results (Quick View)

Sales grew 10% YoY to P$70.2bn, above our estimates and consensus, and despite consolidated volumes contracting 2.2% YoY, vs our flattish...

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