Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sales grew 10.7% YoY to P$69.6bn, slightly (0.9%) below our estimates, on the back of softer-than-expected sales in Mexico and Central America (9% YoY growth), offset by strong South America revenues (13.6% YoY growth).</li><li>Consolidated volume grew 0.8% YoY, with Mexico posting a -1.5% performance amid weather headwinds, and Guatemala posting a 7.5% YoY growth.</li><li>FX tailwinds and revenue management strategies contributed to sales growth in the region.</li></ul>

Sales grew 10.7% YoY to P$69.6bn, slightly (0.9%) below our estimates, on the back of softer-than-expected sales in Mexico and Central America (9% YoY growth), offset by strong South America revenues (13.6% YoY growth).Consolidated volume grew 0.8% YoY, with Mexico posting a -1.5% performance amid weather headwinds, and Guatemala posting a 7.5% YoY growth.FX tailwinds and revenue management strategies contributed to sales growth in the region.

Actinver Research - KOF 3Q24: Healthy sales growth with better-than-expected margins (Quick View)

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>After years of solid consumption, we expect more normalized trends going forward, as consumers have a higher price sensitivity across the whole food &amp; bev spectrum.</li>
<li>It’s not a price increase race anymore, and shrinkflation has its limits.</li>
<li>Therefore, we expect SKU rationalization and increased focus on cost efficiencies (especially amid higher labor costs), among the different strategies that companies follow to hold (or try to improve) margins amid a deceleration in consumption.</li>
</ul>


After years of solid consumption, we expect more normalized trends going forward, as consumers have a higher price sensitivity across the whole food &amp; bev spectrum.
It’s not a price increase race anymore, and shrinkflation has its limits.
Therefore, we expect SKU rationalization and increased focus on cost efficiencies (especially amid higher labor costs), among the different strategies that companies follow to hold (or try to improve) margins amid a deceleration in consumption.


Actinver Research - Food & Bev: Open the bottles (Coverage Initiation)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.</li>
</ul>


On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.
At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.


Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Mexico

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (Femsa) bottles beverages. The Company bottles and distributes branded beverages in parts of North, Central and South America. In some countries Femsa also markets water, beer, and other products.

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Coca-Cola Femsa Sab De Cv (KOFL MM)

Actinver Research - KOF 3Q24: Healthy sales growth with better-than-expected margins (Quick View)

Sales grew 10.7% YoY to P$69.6bn, slightly (0.9%) below our estimates, on the back of softer-than-expected sales in Mexico and Central America (9%...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Food & Bev: Open the bottles (Coverage Initiation)

After years of solid consumption, we expect more normalized trends going forward, as consumers have a higher price sensitivity across the whole...

Actinver

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Europe/UK STOXX Europe 50/FTSE 100 with concerning breakdowns below 3800 and 7700, joining the pullback that had already started in the MSCI ACWI....

Vermilion Research

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