Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The current valuation has shifted to a neutral view on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), as the stock price has risen 11% over the past month, reaching its fair value.</li><li>In addition, the tactical outlook has been adjusted to neutral (vs. very limited upside risk previously).</li><li>We maintain a strong outlook on the long-term growth prospects (expecting three-year profit growth at a CAGR of 15%). </li></ul>

The current valuation has shifted to a neutral view on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), as the stock price has risen 11% over the past month, reaching its fair value.In addition, the tactical outlook has been adjusted to neutral (vs. very limited upside risk previously).We maintain a strong outlook on the long-term growth prospects (expecting three-year profit growth at a CAGR of 15%). 

Cp Axtra - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Earnings to Peak in 4Q

<ul><li>The valuation metrics have increased the attractiveness of the current fundamentals to undervalued (from neutral previously).</li><li>The latest stock price shows upside of 5% while the long-term growth outlook remains strong (with three-year profit growth projected at a CAGR of 15%).</li><li>The tactical upside risk remains limited. Hence, we maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt33.37, based on a required return of 3.3%, reflecting the target PER of 30x.</li></ul>

The valuation metrics have increased the attractiveness of the current fundamentals to undervalued (from neutral previously).The latest stock price shows upside of 5% while the long-term growth outlook remains strong (with three-year profit growth projected at a CAGR of 15%).The tactical upside risk remains limited. Hence, we maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt33.37, based on a required return of 3.3%, reflecting the target PER of 30x.

CP AXTRA - 3Q24E Core Profit Growth Expected at 31% YoY and Flat QoQ

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>SSSG momentum remains weak, while domestic political uncertainty poses risks of delays in government investment disbursements.</li><li>The property market continues to be sluggish, and the upcoming minimum wage hike adds further pressure.</li><li>As a result, we have revised down our 2025-27E earnings forecasts for the home improvement retail segment by an average of 26% per year, resulting in a flat earnings outlook for the sector over the next three years. </li></ul>

SSSG momentum remains weak, while domestic political uncertainty poses risks of delays in government investment disbursements.The property market continues to be sluggish, and the upcoming minimum wage hike adds further pressure.As a result, we have revised down our 2025-27E earnings forecasts for the home improvement retail segment by an average of 26% per year, resulting in a flat earnings outlook for the sector over the next three years. 

Commerce (Retail Business) - JULY 1, 2025

<ul><li>The valuation metrics continue to indicate that the fundamentals are attractive for buying, with the share price suggesting potential upside of 13%.</li><li>We maintain our long-term bullish outlook, expecting earnings to grow at a 15% CAGR over the next three years.</li><li>However, we revise our tactical view to neutral from limited downside risk previously. </li></ul>

The valuation metrics continue to indicate that the fundamentals are attractive for buying, with the share price suggesting potential upside of 13%.We maintain our long-term bullish outlook, expecting earnings to grow at a 15% CAGR over the next three years.However, we revise our tactical view to neutral from limited downside risk previously. 

Cp Axtra - In-Line 2Q24 Earnings; Bullish Earnings Outlook

<ul><li>The valuation metrics indicate that the fundamentals are now attractive for buying (previously neutral), with the share price suggesting potential upside of 13%.</li><li>The tactical downside risk is currently very limited (previously neutral).</li><li>We maintain our long-term bullish outlook, expecting earnings to grow at a 15% CAGR over the next three years. </li></ul>

The valuation metrics indicate that the fundamentals are now attractive for buying (previously neutral), with the share price suggesting potential upside of 13%.The tactical downside risk is currently very limited (previously neutral).We maintain our long-term bullish outlook, expecting earnings to grow at a 15% CAGR over the next three years. 

Cp Axtra - 2Q4E Earnings Growth Expected at 40% YoY but a Drop of 14% QoQ

Thailand

CP Axtra Public Company Limited operates a retail discount store chain. The Company sells food and consumer products to its registered customers including wholesalers, retailers, small businesses, caterers, and private individuals who hold its member cards. CP Axtra serves customers in Thailand.

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CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)

Cp Axtra - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Earnings to Peak in 4Q

The current valuation has shifted to a neutral view on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), as the stock price has risen 11% over the past...

Krungthai XSpring

CP AXTRA - 3Q24E Core Profit Growth Expected at 31% YoY and Flat QoQ

The valuation metrics have increased the attractiveness of the current fundamentals to undervalued (from neutral previously).

Krungthai XSpring

Commerce (Retail Business) - JULY 1, 2025

SSSG momentum remains weak, while domestic political uncertainty poses risks of delays in government investment disbursements.

Krungthai XSpring

Cp Axtra - In-Line 2Q24 Earnings; Bullish Earnings Outlook

The valuation metrics continue to indicate that the fundamentals are attractive for buying, with the share price suggesting potential upside of 13%.

Krungthai XSpring

Cp Axtra - 2Q4E Earnings Growth Expected at 40% YoY but a Drop of 14% QoQ

The valuation metrics indicate that the fundamentals are now attractive for buying (previously neutral), with the share price suggesting potential...

Krungthai XSpring

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Dividend (Yield)