Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We revise our fair value to Bt27, based on a required return of 4.4%, reflecting our new assumptions of Rf = 1.45% and MRP = 5.26% (previously Bt22.50, 5.2%, 1.48%, and 6.83%).</li><li>Valuation metrics: We upgrade our recommendation to Buy (previously Outperform) as the current share price offers 28% upside to the new fair value.</li><li>We maintain a positive view on the current fundamentals and solid long-term growth outlook, but revise our tactical view to limited downside risk (previously very limited downside risk).</li></ul>

We revise our fair value to Bt27, based on a required return of 4.4%, reflecting our new assumptions of Rf = 1.45% and MRP = 5.26% (previously Bt22.50, 5.2%, 1.48%, and 6.83%).Valuation metrics: We upgrade our recommendation to Buy (previously Outperform) as the current share price offers 28% upside to the new fair value.We maintain a positive view on the current fundamentals and solid long-term growth outlook, but revise our tactical view to limited downside risk (previously very limited downside risk).

CP Axtra - 2Q25 Earnings Increased YoY and QoQ as Expected

<ul><li>2Q25E core profit is projected at Bt2.4bn, up 8% YoY but down 11% QoQ, in line with the expected trends in sales and the GPM.</li><li>The valuation metrics continue to support a buy recommendation based on the current fundamentals, with very limited tactical downside risk.</li><li>The share price implies 15% upside to the newly revised fair value. </li></ul>

2Q25E core profit is projected at Bt2.4bn, up 8% YoY but down 11% QoQ, in line with the expected trends in sales and the GPM.The valuation metrics continue to support a buy recommendation based on the current fundamentals, with very limited tactical downside risk.The share price implies 15% upside to the newly revised fair value. 

CP Axtra - 2Q25E Earnings Expected to Incease 8% YoY but Decrease 11% QoQ

<ul><li>1Q25 profit rose 7% YoY but fell 33% QoQ, in line with the trends in sales and the gross profit margin (GPM).</li><li>The result accounts for 24% of the 2025E forecast, and we maintain our estimates.</li><li>The valuation metrics support a neutral view on the current fundamentals, as the stock price now implies only 2% upside to its fair value of Bt26 (based on a required return of 4.3%). </li></ul>

1Q25 profit rose 7% YoY but fell 33% QoQ, in line with the trends in sales and the gross profit margin (GPM).The result accounts for 24% of the 2025E forecast, and we maintain our estimates.The valuation metrics support a neutral view on the current fundamentals, as the stock price now implies only 2% upside to its fair value of Bt26 (based on a required return of 4.3%). 

CP Axtra - 1Q25 Earnings Increased YoY but Fell QoQ, as Projected

<ul><li>1Q25E core profit is projected at Bt2.7bn, up 9% YoY but down 30% QoQ, in line with the sales and GPM trends.</li><li>Based on the valuation metrics, we downgrade our current fundamental view from buy to undervalued, as the stock has only 5% upside and the long-term growth prospects appear less attractive (previously in line with the sector).</li><li>We forecast 3-year average core profit growth of a 9% CAGR and maintain a neutral tactical view. </li></ul>

1Q25E core profit is projected at Bt2.7bn, up 9% YoY but down 30% QoQ, in line with the sales and GPM trends.Based on the valuation metrics, we downgrade our current fundamental view from buy to undervalued, as the stock has only 5% upside and the long-term growth prospects appear less attractive (previously in line with the sector).We forecast 3-year average core profit growth of a 9% CAGR and maintain a neutral tactical view. 

Cp Axtra - 1Q25E Profit Expected to Grow 9% YoY but Decline 30% QoQ

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

<ul><li>4Q24 core profit was the peak of 2024, growing 18% and 24% YoY, respectively, and exceeding expectations by 7% and 2% .</li><li>We maintain our projection for an 11% CAGR in two-year profit growth, driven by higher sales and gross profit margin, both internally and through synergies from the group's business restructuring.</li><li>The valuation metrics support a buy view from a fundamental perspective, as the stock price implies 27% upside, alongside long- term growth in line with the sector.</li></ul>

4Q24 core profit was the peak of 2024, growing 18% and 24% YoY, respectively, and exceeding expectations by 7% and 2% .We maintain our projection for an 11% CAGR in two-year profit growth, driven by higher sales and gross profit margin, both internally and through synergies from the group's business restructuring.The valuation metrics support a buy view from a fundamental perspective, as the stock price implies 27% upside, alongside long- term growth in line with the sector.

Thailand

CP Axtra Public Company Limited operates a retail discount store chain. The Company sells food and consumer products to its registered customers including wholesalers, retailers, small businesses, caterers, and private individuals who hold its member cards. CP Axtra serves customers in Thailand.

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CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)

CP Axtra - 2Q25 Earnings Increased YoY and QoQ as Expected

We revise our fair value to Bt27, based on a required return of 4.4%, reflecting our new assumptions of Rf = 1.45% and MRP = 5.26% (previously...

Krungthai XSpring

CP Axtra - 2Q25E Earnings Expected to Incease 8% YoY but Decrease 11% QoQ

2Q25E core profit is projected at Bt2.4bn, up 8% YoY but down 11% QoQ, in line with the expected trends in sales and the GPM.

Krungthai XSpring

CP Axtra - 1Q25 Earnings Increased YoY but Fell QoQ, as Projected

1Q25 profit rose 7% YoY but fell 33% QoQ, in line with the trends in sales and the gross profit margin (GPM). The result accounts for 24% of the...

Krungthai XSpring

Cp Axtra - 1Q25E Profit Expected to Grow 9% YoY but Decline 30% QoQ

Based on the valuation metrics, we downgrade our current fundamental view from buy to undervalued, as the stock has only 5% upside and the long...

Krungthai XSpring

CP Axtra - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Earnings

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Outperform), with a 12M forward fair value of Bt34.40, based on a required return of 3.2%.

Forsyth Barr

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