'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pairing from last Friday's results is fad personal products creator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ya-man-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16129:1" rel="noopener">Ya Man (6630 JP)</a> and travel agent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-i-s-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19311:1" rel="noopener">H I S (9603 JP)</a>. Although the former's direct-sales-driven recovery is impressive, the shares are overvalued and soon to be Overbought, so we shall pass in favour of commenting on real estate logistics specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cre-inc-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25924:1" rel="noopener">CRE (3458 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/152/original/2020-12-14_06-27-01.png?1607894832" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178152"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/153/original/2020-12-14_06-34-09.png?1607895263" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178153"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/154/original/2020-12-14_06-33-35.png?1607895275" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178154"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics    </div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pairing from last Friday's results is fad personal products creator Ya Man (6630 JP) and travel agent H I S (9603 JP). Although the former's direct-sales-driven recovery is impressive, the shares are overvalued and soon to be Overbought, so we shall pass in favour of commenting on real estate logistics specialist CRE (3458 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics    

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​11 - [Ya-Man], CRE & H.I.S.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/456/original/2020-09-12_13-08-43.png?1599883751" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158456"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all Charts: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>YET TO BOTTOM OUT</strong> - As we finish the first batch of results covering the period from May to July, our scoring of Results, Annual, and Interim Revisions has yet to see a bottoming out in momentum. Nevertheless, the market, aided by ample liquidity, has already discounted the first six months of a potential recovery. The market's optimism is supported by the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions which, as of July, had seen two months of recovery.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/458/original/2020-09-12_13-20-58.png?1599884472" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158458"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/459/original/2020-09-12_13-31-24.png?1599885118" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158459"></figure><p></p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/449/original/2020-09-12_10-38-08.png?1599874697" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158449"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/451/original/2020-09-12_10-40-00.png?1599874819" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158451"></figure><p>Our picks of the 'best' from Friday's announcements are logistics infrastructure company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cre-inc-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25924:1" rel="noopener">CRE (3458 JP)</a> and personal products provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ya-man-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16129:1" rel="noopener">Ya Man (6630 JP)</a>. The 'worst' results were from Ai gaming company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heroz-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27106:1" rel="noopener">Heroz (4382 JP)</a> and commercial design and display specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tanseisha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10898:1" rel="noopener">Tanseisha (9743 JP)</a>, the latter due to a severe downward revision for the full year. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/452/original/2020-09-12_10-41-46.png?1599874918" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158452"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/453/original/2020-09-12_10-43-21.png?1599875013" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158453"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><div class="content-highlight"><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong>50%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>66%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 69%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores. <strong>29%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>48 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 4% Neutral / 50% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +0.9 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.8% Quarter YoY / -3.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -4.1ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 29%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>29 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 3% Neutral / 66% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 23% Positive / 8% Neutral / 69% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -6.9 points</li>
</ul></div>

Source for all Charts: Japan AnalyticsYET TO BOTTOM OUT - As we finish the first batch of results covering the period from May to July, our scoring of Results, Annual, and Interim Revisions has yet to see a bottoming out in momentum. Nevertheless, the market, aided by ample liquidity, has already discounted the first six months of a potential recovery. The market's optimism is supported by the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions which, as of July, had seen two months of recovery.• BEST &amp; WORST •Our picks of the 'best' from Friday's announcements are logistics infrastructure company CRE (3458 JP) and personal products provider Ya Man (6630 JP). The 'worst' results were from Ai gaming company Heroz (4382 JP) and commercial design and display specialist Tanseisha (9743 JP), the latter due to a severe downward revision for the full year. 

DAILY STATS
PERCENTAGES -50% of quarterly results, 66% of annual forecasts/revisions and 69% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 29% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.48 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 46% Positive / 4% Neutral / 50% Negative

Average Results Score Change: +0.9 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -5.8% Quarter YoY / -3.7% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -4.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 29%
29 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 31% Positive / 3% Neutral / 66% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 23% Positive / 8% Neutral / 69% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.9 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/359/original/2020-06-30_04-46-42.png?1593460016" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143359"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/360/original/2020-06-30_04-47-13.png?1593460057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143360"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>STAYIN' HOME</strong> - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">DCM (3050 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP),</a> both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16460:1" rel="noopener">Asahi (3333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> being Monday's examples.</p>
<div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>13 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 2 Positive / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>:-6.2</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9ppt</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><br>6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4</li>
</ul>
</div>



Source • Japan Analytics
STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM (3050 JP) and Keiyo (8168 JP), both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with Shimamura (8227 JP), Asahi (3333 JP), and J Front Retailing (3086 JP) being Monday's examples.


DAILY STATS


13 Quarterly Results




Results Score: 2 Positive / 11 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-6.2

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt




 6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions



Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

Japan

CRE, Inc. provides integrated real estate services mainly for logistic facilities. CRE provides development, construction, leasing, management, brokerage and asset management services for commercial properties.

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CRE Inc/Japan (3458 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/11 - [Ya-Man], CRE & H.I.S.

Our best and worst pairing from last Friday's results is fad personal products creator Ya Man (6630 JP) and travel agent H I S (9603 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES -53% of quarterly results, 53% of annual forecasts/revisions and only 29% of interim forecasts...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results & Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​11 - [Ya-Man], CRE & H.I.S.

Our best and worst pairing from last Friday's results is fad personal products creator Ya Man (6630 JP) and travel agent H I S (9603 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES -53% of quarterly results, 53% of annual forecasts/revisions and only 29% of interim forecasts...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results & Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/11 - [Ya-Man], CRE & H.I.S.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha