Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Manufacturing Sentiment in the US continues to decline. US manufacturing neared stagnation in October as orders contracted for the fourth time in five months, while an index of prices paid fell to a more than two-year low.</li><li>As most commodity groups are heavily correlated with the ISM data, this will provide significant headwinds over the next six months or so, according to our leading indicators.</li><li>By now, there is quite a divergence in industrial production in general. We expect industrial production to crash over the next few months, which will continue to be a nasty factor for commodity demand.</li></ul>

Manufacturing Sentiment in the US continues to decline. US manufacturing neared stagnation in October as orders contracted for the fourth time in five months, while an index of prices paid fell to a more than two-year low.As most commodity groups are heavily correlated with the ISM data, this will provide significant headwinds over the next six months or so, according to our leading indicators.By now, there is quite a divergence in industrial production in general. We expect industrial production to crash over the next few months, which will continue to be a nasty factor for commodity demand.

<ul>
<li>With the beginning of this week’s newsletter, I probably won’t make any new friends in my home country.</li>
<li>What makes me sad is that literally nobody is speaking about the untapped natural gas reserves we have underground in Germany that are indeed accessible.</li>
<li>A short calculation: In 2021 Russia delivered 55 billion cubic meters to Germany or 55% of the total German gas consumption.</li>
</ul>


With the beginning of this week’s newsletter, I probably won’t make any new friends in my home country.
What makes me sad is that literally nobody is speaking about the untapped natural gas reserves we have underground in Germany that are indeed accessible.
A short calculation: In 2021 Russia delivered 55 billion cubic meters to Germany or 55% of the total German gas consumption.


<ul><li>Respect the trend - inflation continues to trend down but also continues to surprise on the upside in terms of analysts’ expectations.</li><li>Getting inflation back into the target corridor will be a slow and painful process as inflation is broadly driven by the components of shelter, transportation services, medical services, and not only food and energy, which get the most headlines in the newspaper.</li><li>On the other hand, we're on the right track, as the YoY comparisons have declined since July.</li></ul>

Respect the trend - inflation continues to trend down but also continues to surprise on the upside in terms of analysts’ expectations.Getting inflation back into the target corridor will be a slow and painful process as inflation is broadly driven by the components of shelter, transportation services, medical services, and not only food and energy, which get the most headlines in the newspaper.On the other hand, we're on the right track, as the YoY comparisons have declined since July.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Exclusive: Lessons From the Chinese Silk Road Fund’s Eight-Year Journey Along the Belt and Road</li><li>Restaurant blaze kills 17 in northeastern China</li><li>As tensions mount, Xi and Japan’s Kishida discuss future of ties</li></ul>

Exclusive: Lessons From the Chinese Silk Road Fund’s Eight-Year Journey Along the Belt and RoadRestaurant blaze kills 17 in northeastern ChinaAs tensions mount, Xi and Japan’s Kishida discuss future of ties

CX Daily: Lessons From The Chinese Silk Road Fund’s Eight-Year Journey Along The Belt And Road

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.</li>
<li>We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ</li>
<li>With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.
We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ
With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.


Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

The Commodity Report #76

As most commodity groups are heavily correlated with the ISM data, this will provide significant headwinds over the next six months or so,...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #75

A short calculation: In 2021 Russia delivered 55 billion cubic meters to Germany or 55% of the total German gas consumption.

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #73

Respect the trend - inflation continues to trend down but also continues to surprise on the upside in terms of analysts’ expectations.

The Commodity Report

CX Daily: Lessons From The Chinese Silk Road Fund’s Eight-Year Journey Along The Belt And Road

Exclusive: Lessons From the Chinese Silk Road Fund’s Eight-Year Journey Along the Belt and Road. Restaurant blaze kills 17 in northeastern China

Caixin Global

Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP violating 2.5-yr uptrend; a break below $32.50 would send commodity prices much lower, & would be deflationary. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

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