Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

The OPEC/non-OPEC alliance stunned the market with its decision last Thursday to roll over its current production curbs into April.It was in effect a Saudi coup, involving a surprise extension of its 1 million b/d unilateral cut initially instituted for February-March. In a classic head fake (some might say a test balloon), the Kingdom had signalled a desire to reverse this cut, via a report in The Wall Street Journal on February 17. OPEC+ had been widely expected to boost supply by 1.0-1.5 million b/d, taking the cue from a 30% spike in prices this year on an improving outlook for global oil demand.Crude responded with an 8% spike over Thursday and Friday. At the week's close, Brent was eyeing the $70 psychological mark, not seen since May 2019.Here's our take on OPEC+’s latest deal and the bigger shifts underway that it signals.

The OPEC/non-OPEC alliance stunned the market with its decision last Thursday to roll over its current production curbs into April.It was in effect a Saudi coup, involving a surprise extension of its 1 million b/d unilateral cut initially instituted for February-March. In a classic head fake (some might say a test balloon), the Kingdom had signalled a desire to reverse this cut, via a report in The Wall Street Journal on February 17. OPEC+ had been widely expected to boost supply by 1.0-1.5 million b/d, taking the cue from a 30% spike in prices this year on an improving outlook for global oil demand.Crude responded with an 8% spike over Thursday and Friday. At the week's close, Brent was eyeing the $70 psychological mark, not seen since May 2019.Here's our take on OPEC+’s latest deal and the bigger shifts underway that it signals.

Weekly Oil Views: Saudi Masterstroke Puts OPEC+ on a More Hawkish Path

Crude continued its breathless rally through the early part of last week, but ended with a sharp pullback on Friday. We inspect the three “Fs” in crude’s spectacular 18% surge through February – fundamentals, financial markets and froth – to gauge of their influence in the coming days and weeks.While the support from fundamentals looks solid, how might it be impacted by the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance's meeting on March 4 to decide on their production policy for April?Plus: Our view on the oil market this year makes us sceptical of the chorus of calls for a "commodities super cycle".

Crude continued its breathless rally through the early part of last week, but ended with a sharp pullback on Friday. We inspect the three “Fs” in crude’s spectacular 18% surge through February – fundamentals, financial markets and froth – to gauge of their influence in the coming days and weeks.While the support from fundamentals looks solid, how might it be impacted by the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance's meeting on March 4 to decide on their production policy for April?Plus: Our view on the oil market this year makes us sceptical of the chorus of calls for a "commodities super cycle". 

Weekly Oil Views: Crude's Incessant Rally Halts Just Before OPEC+ Meet. What Next?

Crude hit 13-month highs mid-week last week, but had pulled back slightly by Friday's market close.What follows a stint of frenzied buying? A spell of panicky sell-off! On the way up, the market sees nothing but bullish signs, including some that are a bit iffy. On the way down, it eyes all the reasons to be bearish, not all of them solid.Last week's surge had three key props. Two of them -- an Arctic blast in central US shutting off nearly 4 million b/d of the country's crude production and a bit of froth characteristic of unusually euphoric markets -- had dissipated as the week came to a close. But the third and far bigger support remains firmly embedded. What is this factor and how do we see this playing out in the coming weeks and months?

Crude hit 13-month highs mid-week last week, but had pulled back slightly by Friday's market close.What follows a stint of frenzied buying? A spell of panicky sell-off! On the way up, the market sees nothing but bullish signs, including some that are a bit iffy. On the way down, it eyes all the reasons to be bearish, not all of them solid.Last week's surge had three key props. Two of them -- an Arctic blast in central US shutting off nearly 4 million b/d of the country's crude production and a bit of froth characteristic of unusually euphoric markets -- had dissipated as the week came to a close. But the third and far bigger support remains firmly embedded. What is this factor and how do we see this playing out in the coming weeks and months?

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Loses Grip on 13-Month Peak but Fundamentally Bullish

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We trace the recent media preoccupation with asset bubbles to find that fears over potential bubbles in SPACs, Clean Energy, IPOs and Bitcoin have clearly lost momentum in recent weeks</li>
<li>Talk of a "commodities supercycle" has surged to a new high, coinciding with the current wave of weather-induced energy disruptions</li>
<li>Vaccine rollout sentiment has been consistently improving for weeks, as data from France and Germany has improved slightly in the MTD while the US rollout continues to accelerate</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


We trace the recent media preoccupation with asset bubbles to find that fears over potential bubbles in SPACs, Clean Energy, IPOs and Bitcoin have clearly lost momentum in recent weeks
Talk of a "commodities supercycle" has surged to a new high, coinciding with the current wave of weather-induced energy disruptions
Vaccine rollout sentiment has been consistently improving for weeks, as data from France and Germany has improved slightly in the MTD while the US rollout continues to accelerate
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Bubble Fears Subside, Commodity Supercycle Views Spike, Vaccine Sentiment Rises

Benchmark Brent crude prices have jumped 21% year-to-date and are a whopping 67% higher since the start of November. A 10-session uninterrupted spell of gains from Jan 29 to Feb 10, the longest in two years, prompted growing skepticism and calls for a correction. Brent did correct --  by 0.5% and for all of one day. On Friday, it went on to notch a fresh 1-year high, settling above the $62/barrel mark.Even as the oil bulls' bandwagon grows bigger, there are a few skeptics in the market and some sitting on the fence. The doubters point to depressed Q1 oil demand amid continuing Covid restrictions across Europe, a slow and patchy progress of vaccinations, and the rising likelihood of OPEC+ deciding at the ministerial meeting in early March to open the spigots, among other factors.Could they be missing the single most important development in recent weeks that signals that the Covid tide may have finally turned in favour of the oil market? How and why have our views switched to far more constructive than just a fortnight ago? Read on to find out.

Benchmark Brent crude prices have jumped 21% year-to-date and are a whopping 67% higher since the start of November. A 10-session uninterrupted spell of gains from Jan 29 to Feb 10, the longest in two years, prompted growing skepticism and calls for a correction. Brent did correct --  by 0.5% and for all of one day. On Friday, it went on to notch a fresh 1-year high, settling above the $62/barrel mark.Even as the oil bulls' bandwagon grows bigger, there are a few skeptics in the market and some sitting on the fence. The doubters point to depressed Q1 oil demand amid continuing Covid restrictions across Europe, a slow and patchy progress of vaccinations, and the rising likelihood of OPEC+ deciding at the ministerial meeting in early March to open the spigots, among other factors.Could they be missing the single most important development in recent weeks that signals that the Covid tide may have finally turned in favour of the oil market? How and why have our views switched to far more constructive than just a fortnight ago? Read on to find out.

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Weekly Oil Views: Saudi Masterstroke Puts OPEC+ on a More Hawkish Path

Saudi Arabia has steered OPEC+ on to a more hawkish path. Crude jumped to highs not seen since May 2019 after producers stunned the market last...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Crude's Incessant Rally Halts Just Before OPEC+ Meet. What Next?

Crude's breathless rally to fresh pre-Covid highs ended with a sharp pullback on Friday. All eyes will be on the OPEC+ meeting this week -- will...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Loses Grip on 13-Month Peak but Fundamentally Bullish

Crude prices rallied to 13-month highs last week, albeit ending Friday with a mild retreat. Is it the start of a major correction or a healthy...

Vandana Hari

TMI Snapshot: Bubble Fears Subside, Commodity Supercycle Views Spike, Vaccine Sentiment Rises

Increased complacency has been apparent in recent weeks as bubble fears subsided on key themes thought to be potentially overextended. At the same...

Elan Gore

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

Has the oil market gotten ahead of itself? Is Brent crude above $62, up 21% year-to-date, overcooked! We don't think so! Why and what does that...

Vandana Hari

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