Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

The non-consensus end Q2 growth into value switch focused on short MSCI tech versus long 50:50 mining and energy position is now almost 6% onside.Oil has joined the rally seen in industrial metals, with US inventories now down 10% from their March peak and the market shifting into backwardation.Shorting the USD and volatility have become one-way bets but both look likely to reverse into the autumn, undermining carry trades and cross market correlations.With plunging approval ratings, the…

The non-consensus end Q2 growth into value switch focused on short MSCI tech versus long 50:50 mining and energy position is now almost 6% onside.Oil has joined the rally seen in industrial metals, with US inventories now down 10% from their March peak and the market shifting into backwardation.Shorting the USD and volatility have become one-way bets but both look likely to reverse into the autumn, undermining carry trades and cross market correlations.With plunging approval ratings, the…

Oil Joins 'Surprise' Resource Rally, as Japan Looks Past Abe Era…

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2>Global asset markets have shrugged off rising geopolitical tensions, stretched valuations and worries that the world’s leading central banks were embarking on a coordinated withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation. What has helped is a macroeconomic backdrop widely-perceived as benign – a Goldilocks scenario where economic growth is neither “too hot nor too cold” and inflation pressures are moderate. Of the two, we judge the inflation element to be the most critical. Given this, we…

SummaryGlobal asset markets have shrugged off rising geopolitical tensions, stretched valuations and worries that the world’s leading central banks were embarking on a coordinated withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation. What has helped is a macroeconomic backdrop widely-perceived as benign – a Goldilocks scenario where economic growth is neither “too hot nor too cold” and inflation pressures are moderate. Of the two, we judge the inflation element to be the most critical. Given this, we…

The Market Sentimentalist - The Worry List

Economist

Richard Iley

The EIA's latest data show that Drilled but Uncompleted (DUCs) wells in the shale sector a.k.a. the 'fracklog' continued to climb in June, hitting a fresh all-time high. Remember that DUCs are wells that have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been made ready for production. The number of DUCs necessarily has implications for the price elasticity of US shale supply. The higher the number of DUCs, the more supply that can arrive rapidly in response to any increase in prices. Think of…

The EIA's latest data show that Drilled but Uncompleted (DUCs) wells in the shale sector a.k.a. the 'fracklog' continued to climb in June, hitting a fresh all-time high. Remember that DUCs are wells that have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been made ready for production. The number of DUCs necessarily has implications for the price elasticity of US shale supply. The higher the number of DUCs, the more supply that can arrive rapidly in response to any increase in prices. Think of…

One key lead indicator of future shale oil supply that should be on all investors' radar is the US's Energy Information  Administration (EIA)'s estimate of so-called 'drilled but uncompleted wells' a.k.a DUCs.<a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=27932" target="_blank">The EIA started publishing the DUC data last September as part of its monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DRP)</a>. Data on DUC starts in late 2013. DUCs are wells that have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been made ready for production. The number of DUCs necessarily has…

One key lead indicator of future shale oil supply that should be on all investors' radar is the US's Energy Information  Administration (EIA)'s estimate of so-called 'drilled but uncompleted wells' a.k.a DUCs.The EIA started publishing the DUC data last September as part of its monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DRP). Data on DUC starts in late 2013. DUCs are wells that have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been made ready for production. The number of DUCs necessarily has…

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

CNOOC has been drifting lower while forming a descending formation that once mature is constructive for an intermediate rise. Near term weakness is outlined in the chart below as is the buy level for CNOOC. The macro bias will need more time to mature for a basing process in Q3. A tactical rise and back fill is the most probable scenario for CNOOC before a stronger rise in late 2017. This sequence is outlined below.Looking at WTI we see nice RSI support that we are working toward and a downside…

CNOOC has been drifting lower while forming a descending formation that once mature is constructive for an intermediate rise. Near term weakness is outlined in the chart below as is the buy level for CNOOC. The macro bias will need more time to mature for a basing process in Q3. A tactical rise and back fill is the most probable scenario for CNOOC before a stronger rise in late 2017. This sequence is outlined below.Looking at WTI we see nice RSI support that we are working toward and a downside…

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Oil Joins 'Surprise' Resource Rally, as Japan Looks Past Abe Era…

The non-consensus end Q2 growth into value switch focused on short MSCI tech versus long 50:50 mining and energy position is now almost 6%...

Sean Maher

The Market Sentimentalist - The Worry List

SummaryGlobal asset markets have shrugged off rising geopolitical tensions, stretched valuations and worries that the world’s leading central banks...

Amareos

Oil: DUC Season

The EIA's latest data show that Drilled but Uncompleted (DUCs) wells in the shale sector a.k.a. the 'fracklog' continued to climb in June, hitting...

Richard Iley

Oil: DUC, You Sucker!

One key lead indicator of future shale oil supply that should be on all investors' radar is the US's Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s...

Richard Iley

CNOOC Buy Level Aligns with WTI Low

CNOOC has been drifting lower while forming a descending formation that once mature is constructive for an intermediate rise. Near term weakness is...

Thomas Schroeder

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