Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.</li>
<li>For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.</li>
<li>Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.</li>
</ul>


Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.
For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.
Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.


Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>While US headline inflation is returning to pre-Covid levels faster than average, the risks of premature celebrations are high!</li>
<li>In the Eurozone, headline inflation is nowhere near pre-shock levels, and our inflation outlook suggests it may well take another year now that oil prices are spiking. </li>
<li>Central banks have no choice but to accept stagflation, or worse, keeping rates higher for longer, which is NOT reflected in stock markets.</li>
</ul>


While US headline inflation is returning to pre-Covid levels faster than average, the risks of premature celebrations are high!
In the Eurozone, headline inflation is nowhere near pre-shock levels, and our inflation outlook suggests it may well take another year now that oil prices are spiking. 
Central banks have no choice but to accept stagflation, or worse, keeping rates higher for longer, which is NOT reflected in stock markets.


The Latest IMF Study on Inflation Calls for Even More Rate Hikes!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>I have four major worries around the current macro setup. The long consensus in bond positioning is worrisome paired with rising energy prices</li>
<li>The lack of reliability of recession forecasts and the relationship to Manufacturing</li>
<li>Germany being a nation-wide Nokia case despite falling input prices</li>
</ul>


I have four major worries around the current macro setup. The long consensus in bond positioning is worrisome paired with rising energy prices
The lack of reliability of recession forecasts and the relationship to Manufacturing
Germany being a nation-wide Nokia case despite falling input prices


Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worries me the most in global macro right now

<ul><li>We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.</li><li>Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.</li><li>Are international investors even involved in China anymore?</li></ul>

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.Are international investors even involved in China anymore?

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.</li><li>That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.</li><li>Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.</li></ul>

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Taking an in-depth look at previous Bitcoin halvings by taking them out of isolation by adding economic and market circumstances: Why Spot Bitcoin...

Jeroen Blokland

The Latest IMF Study on Inflation Calls for Even More Rate Hikes!

Based on an extended IMF analysis of 100 inflation shocks in 56 countries since 1971, the risks of premature celebrations are high!

Jeroen Blokland

Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worries me the most in global macro right now

I have four major worries around the current macro setup. The long consensus in bond positioning is worrisome paired with rising energy prices

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate. Positioning in CNY markets...

Steno Research

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)