Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>YTD our absolute return strategy is up 12,0% Oil Prices Rise as Israel Attacks Iran's Nuclear Facilities - What We Do Friday was marked by panic buying safe haven assets.</li><li>Gold and Crude went up, risk assets went down. We’re now in a time of mass geopolitical uncertainty and related volatility.</li><li>Therefore we think it is important to keep a cool head in such situations and don’t let headlines and breaking news change investment behavior.</li></ul>

YTD our absolute return strategy is up 12,0% Oil Prices Rise as Israel Attacks Iran's Nuclear Facilities - What We Do Friday was marked by panic buying safe haven assets.Gold and Crude went up, risk assets went down. We’re now in a time of mass geopolitical uncertainty and related volatility.Therefore we think it is important to keep a cool head in such situations and don’t let headlines and breaking news change investment behavior.

Oil Prices Rise as Israel Attacks Iran's Nuclear Facilities - What We Do

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We will be very interested in what happens to the number of traders on the short side. With futures, small moves are magnified by leverage; as such, a significant move, like we are seeing today, is likely to have blown through various stop-out levels for traders.</li><li>In volatile markets, stops become self-fulfilling prophecies – tight clustering near technical levels turns minor rallies into cascading short squeezes. We expect that number of shorts to continue to fall.</li><li>If geopolitics is causing moves in the markets, we have to take a look at gold:</li></ul>

We will be very interested in what happens to the number of traders on the short side. With futures, small moves are magnified by leverage; as such, a significant move, like we are seeing today, is likely to have blown through various stop-out levels for traders.In volatile markets, stops become self-fulfilling prophecies – tight clustering near technical levels turns minor rallies into cascading short squeezes. We expect that number of shorts to continue to fall.If geopolitics is causing moves in the markets, we have to take a look at gold:

Real Asset Chartbook Week #11: Digging Deeper into the Charts

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>We have another round of Israeli strikes on Iran just as we have seen repeatedly since October 7<sup>th</sup> and the beginning of the Gaza war.</li><li>This time, Israel targeted nuclear and missile installations as well as the very top of the Iranian military and intelligence leadership. The attacks were hugely successful, likely severely limiting Iranian response capabilities.</li><li>So far, Iran has ‘only’ responded with smaller waves of drones, which the US and UK are helping Israel to shoot down.</li></ul>

We have another round of Israeli strikes on Iran just as we have seen repeatedly since October 7th and the beginning of the Gaza war.This time, Israel targeted nuclear and missile installations as well as the very top of the Iranian military and intelligence leadership. The attacks were hugely successful, likely severely limiting Iranian response capabilities.So far, Iran has ‘only’ responded with smaller waves of drones, which the US and UK are helping Israel to shoot down.

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This insight offers a quick look at the probability of reversal for a number of stocks and indices in the Asia/Pacific Region, plus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1)</a> </li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> appear overbought, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/key-markets-tactical-outlooks-after-israel-strike-on-iran" target="_blank" rel="noopener">as discussed in a recent insight</a>, Crude Oil can certainly go higher.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> are also very overbought, detailed outlooks have been recently discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-200-tactical-outlook-post-index-rebalance-announcement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here (ASX200)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kospi-200-update-market-moves-after-lee-jae-myung-s-victory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here (KOSPI200).</a>
</li>
</ul>


This insight offers a quick look at the probability of reversal for a number of stocks and indices in the Asia/Pacific Region, plus Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1) 
Both Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) appear overbought, but as discussed in a recent insight, Crude Oil can certainly go higher.

S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) are also very overbought, detailed outlooks have been recently discussed here (ASX200) and here (KOSPI200).



Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

<ul><li>YTD our absolute return strategy is up 10,6% The Egg-Price-Bubble Has Busted!</li><li>The price of a dozen eggs in the US has crashed from $8 to $2,5 within five months - highlighting extraordinary volatility in the egg market.</li><li>For context: The rise of egg prices can be primarily contributed to the ongoing avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that began in 2022.</li></ul>

YTD our absolute return strategy is up 10,6% The Egg-Price-Bubble Has Busted!The price of a dozen eggs in the US has crashed from $8 to $2,5 within five months - highlighting extraordinary volatility in the egg market.For context: The rise of egg prices can be primarily contributed to the ongoing avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that began in 2022.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Oil Prices Rise as Israel Attacks Iran's Nuclear Facilities - What We Do

YTD our absolute return strategy is up 12,0% Oil Prices Rise as Israel Attacks Iran's Nuclear Facilities - What We Do Friday was marked by panic...

The Commodity Report

Real Asset Chartbook Week #11: Digging Deeper into the Charts

We will be very interested in what happens to the number of traders on the short side. With futures, small moves are magnified by leverage; as...

Massif Capital Research

The Drill Extra – Israel strikes Iran

Morning. We have another round of Israeli strikes on Iran just as we have seen repeatedly since October 7th and the beginning of the Gaza...

Steno Research

Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

A synoptic view of the reversal probabilities for equities and indices across the Asia-Pacific region, as well as Gold and Crude Oil.

Nico Rosti

The Egg-Price-Bubble Has Busted!

The price of a dozen eggs in the US has crashed from $8 to $2,5 within five months - highlighting extraordinary volatility in the egg market.

The Commodity Report

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