Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Sea Sale: Tencent sold 14.5 mn shares in Sea, raising approximately USD 3 bn in cash – reducing Tencent’s position in Sea from 21.3% to 18.7%;   </li>
<li>
 Not A Surprise: Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of Sea shares is not a surprise; and  </li>
<li>
 Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.    </li>
</ul>



 Sea Sale: Tencent sold 14.5 mn shares in Sea, raising approximately USD 3 bn in cash – reducing Tencent’s position in Sea from 21.3% to 18.7%;   

 Not A Surprise: Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of Sea shares is not a surprise; and  

 Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.    


Tencent Holdings – From Sea To Shining Sea

<ul>
<li>
Special Dividend: On December 23, 2021, Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] announced that it is planning to distribute USD 16.3 bn in JD.com (JD.US) [JD] Class A shares; </li>
<li>
Not A Surprise:Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of JD shares is not a surprise; and</li>
<li>
Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.  </li>
</ul>



Special Dividend: On December 23, 2021, Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] announced that it is planning to distribute USD 16.3 bn in JD.com (JD.US) [JD] Class A shares; 

Not A Surprise:Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of JD shares is not a surprise; and

Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.  


<ul>
<li>
This Is Bad:Under mainland China’s real estate development law, the government has the right to repossess idle land sold to any developer without compensation; </li>
<li>
Chengdu and Haikou Start Deluge: At 1H21, Evergrande had land plots with an original value of CNY 456.8 bn (USD 71.7 bn); and</li>
<li>
Banks Eating This One:Without any compensation to Evergrande, mainland Chinese banks no doubt will finally have their hands forced in writing down their exposure to Evergrande and other developers.</li>
</ul>



This Is Bad:Under mainland China’s real estate development law, the government has the right to repossess idle land sold to any developer without compensation; 

Chengdu and Haikou Start Deluge: At 1H21, Evergrande had land plots with an original value of CNY 456.8 bn (USD 71.7 bn); and

Banks Eating This One:Without any compensation to Evergrande, mainland Chinese banks no doubt will finally have their hands forced in writing down their exposure to Evergrande and other developers.


<ul>
<li>
Muddy Waters and Beike: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] must deal with an allegation of “significant” fraud by short seller from Muddy Waters at a large investment: KE Holdings (BEKE.US) [Beike];</li>
<li>
Value At Risk: Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares, having a market value of USD 1.8 bn; and</li>
<li>
Fundamental and Regulatory Challenges Remain:Tencent still has numerous challenges: weaker revenues in its core business, mainland China’s clampdown on gaming/internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech businesses.</li>
</ul>



Muddy Waters and Beike: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] must deal with an allegation of “significant” fraud by short seller from Muddy Waters at a large investment: KE Holdings (BEKE.US) [Beike];

Value At Risk: Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares, having a market value of USD 1.8 bn; and

Fundamental and Regulatory Challenges Remain:Tencent still has numerous challenges: weaker revenues in its core business, mainland China’s clampdown on gaming/internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech businesses.


Shimao Property Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Liquidity Crisis:Shimao’s ability to cover short-term liquidity needs are very real, as it does not have the wherewithal to bridge the short-term funding gap;  </li>
<li>
Other Nuggets From Auditor: PWC suggests material valuation concerns exacerbate fundamental risks; and</li>
<li>
Left Holding The Bag:We have very little confidence that HSBC Holdings Plc (5.HK) and Bank of Communications (3328.HK) have marked their Shimao financings as NPL. Watch your bank risk.</li>
</ul>



Liquidity Crisis:Shimao’s ability to cover short-term liquidity needs are very real, as it does not have the wherewithal to bridge the short-term funding gap;  

Other Nuggets From Auditor: PWC suggests material valuation concerns exacerbate fundamental risks; and

Left Holding The Bag:We have very little confidence that HSBC Holdings Plc (5.HK) and Bank of Communications (3328.HK) have marked their Shimao financings as NPL. Watch your bank risk.


Shimao Property Holdings – Here We Go Again

Hong Kong

CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Hong Kong. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the FTSE China A50 Index. The Fund invests most of its total assets in the equities of member companies of the FTSE China A50 Index. This is a RQFII fund.

CSOP FTSE China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)

Tencent Holdings – From Sea To Shining Sea

TENCENT: Tencent sold 14.5 mn shares in Sea, raising USD 3 bn and reducing its position from 21.3% to 18.7%, Other stake sales will follow.

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Bottom Ticking

TENCENT: Tencent announced that it is planning to distribute USD 16.3 bn in JD shares. Given mainland China’s crackdown on Tencent, the disposal is...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande – Repo’d

EVERGRANDE: Under mainland China law, the government can repossess idle land sold to developers without compensation. Mainland Chinese banks no...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Adding To Its Woes

TENCENT: Tencent must now deal with a “significant” fraud allegation at its investment, Beike. Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Shimao Property Holdings – Here We Go Again

SHIMAO PROPERTY: Shimao, in our view, does not have the wherewithal to bridge the short-term funding gap. Further, the auditor suggests that...

Thomas J. Monaco