HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical-A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>If there’s ultimately substantial negative policies in the field of biopharmaceuticals between China and US, APIs will be the segment with the highest risk. But CXO would also be affected.</li>
<li>Now we have entered the harvest period after the previous peak of financing round in China's biotech industry, which has become a concentrated "peach picking period" for foreign pharmaceutical enterprises.</li>
<li>Considering the low market sentiment, we’re cautious on companies with high valuation elasticity before they come up with convincing products. So, we don’t recommend investors rush to bottom-fish CSPC Innovation.</li>
</ul>


If there’s ultimately substantial negative policies in the field of biopharmaceuticals between China and US, APIs will be the segment with the highest risk. But CXO would also be affected.
Now we have entered the harvest period after the previous peak of financing round in China's biotech industry, which has become a concentrated "peach picking period" for foreign pharmaceutical enterprises.
Considering the low market sentiment, we’re cautious on companies with high valuation elasticity before they come up with convincing products. So, we don’t recommend investors rush to bottom-fish CSPC Innovation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.2) - US Strike on China CXOs, CSPC Innovation, Peach Picking Period

<ul>
<li>One direct reason for the sharp drop in stock prices is that RemeGen's performance in 23Q4 would miss expectation, thus leading to disappointing performance for the entire year of 2023.</li>
<li>Due to low competitiveness of pipelines, product sales are hard to bring sufficient cashflow.Prospects for future license-out deals are still uncertain. RemeGen may find it difficult to turn the tide.</li>
<li>Reasonable market value of Remegen should be above RMB12 billion. Investors can participate in the rebounds after stock price plunge, but we do not recommend holding for the long term.</li>
</ul>


One direct reason for the sharp drop in stock prices is that RemeGen's performance in 23Q4 would miss expectation, thus leading to disappointing performance for the entire year of 2023.
Due to low competitiveness of pipelines, product sales are hard to bring sufficient cashflow.Prospects for future license-out deals are still uncertain. RemeGen may find it difficult to turn the tide.
Reasonable market value of Remegen should be above RMB12 billion. Investors can participate in the rebounds after stock price plunge, but we do not recommend holding for the long term.


Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>If checking the hot ADC transactions in recent years, a very big portion of ADC varieties in global licensing deals are from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, which is actually very rare.</li>
<li>While international buyers are “very generous” for ADC assets and MNC's appetite would remain strong, they will immediately calm down and stop once they see any "potential risk" behind.</li>
<li>For Chinese pharmaceutical companies, ADC license-out deal is more of a temporary catalyst. We suggest taking a rational view. ADC CDMO (e.g. WuXi XDC) could be a better investment option.</li>
</ul>


If checking the hot ADC transactions in recent years, a very big portion of ADC varieties in global licensing deals are from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, which is actually very rare.
While international buyers are “very generous” for ADC assets and MNC's appetite would remain strong, they will immediately calm down and stop once they see any "potential risk" behind.
For Chinese pharmaceutical companies, ADC license-out deal is more of a temporary catalyst. We suggest taking a rational view. ADC CDMO (e.g. WuXi XDC) could be a better investment option.


China's Rising Role in Global ADC Partnership Wave - Opportunities and Risks Behind the Gold Rush

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into TraHK, Xpeng, SMIC, CSOP Hang Seng ETF, Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into TraHK, Xpeng, SMIC, CSOP Hang Seng ETF, Ping An Insurance.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Five Months of Inflows Despite New Low

China

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products.  The Company's products include vitamin C, antibiotics and common generic drugs. The Company is also engages in the development of innovative drugs and antibiotics.

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CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.2) - US Strike on China CXOs, CSPC Innovation, Peach Picking Period

Debate about restricting China CXO has never gone away in US politics. MNCs have entered a concentrated "peach picking period" of China biotech....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

RemeGen's 23Q4 results will miss expectation, leading to poor performance for 2023.The pain point isn't cashflow shortage but weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 19th): CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China's Rising Role in Global ADC Partnership Wave - Opportunities and Risks Behind the Gold Rush

As China's ADCs continue to gain recognition from global buyers,the position of Chinese pharmaceutical companies is undergoing fundamental...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Five Months of Inflows Despite New Low

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for November and highlight flows for TraHK, Xpeng, SMIC, CSOP Hang Seng ETF, Ping An Insurance.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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