Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New home sales price and volume data for September released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last Friday and Saturday shows the average house price growth for 70 major cities is slowing month-on-month but still accelerating year-on-year. New home sales volumes growth in gross floor area was only slightly slower year-to-date year-on-year. The private weekly October data points at a much slower growth ahead.

New home sales price and volume data for September released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last Friday and Saturday shows the average house price growth for 70 major cities is slowing month-on-month but still accelerating year-on-year. New home sales volumes growth in gross floor area was only slightly slower year-to-date year-on-year. The private weekly October data points at a much slower growth ahead.

China Housing: September Price And Volume Data Still Strong But Expect Weaker October

In our 4th annual China Districts report, we identify the districts and counties with the most likely upside potential for the local housing markets, based on the patterns of growth in sales volumes and average prices, overlaid with qualitative factors. The predictions from a year ago have proven to be highly accurate. We also look at the overall patterns for more macro insights.

In our 4th annual China Districts report, we identify the districts and counties with the most likely upside potential for the local housing markets, based on the patterns of growth in sales volumes and average prices, overlaid with qualitative factors. The predictions from a year ago have proven to be highly accurate. We also look at the overall patterns for more macro insights.

China Housing: 4th Annual China Districts Report - Top Picks For The Next 1-2 Years (Highlights)

In this Weekly Sales note, we analyze the weekly sales volume data (in Gross Floor Area) for 12 major (4 Tier-1, 8 Tier-2) cities with consistent data to October 7. The 4-week y/y growth turned negative, in contrast to the trend over the prior months, driven by the Tier-2 cities, while the Tier-1 maintained positive growth.

In this Weekly Sales note, we analyze the weekly sales volume data (in Gross Floor Area) for 12 major (4 Tier-1, 8 Tier-2) cities with consistent data to October 7. The 4-week y/y growth turned negative, in contrast to the trend over the prior months, driven by the Tier-2 cities, while the Tier-1 maintained positive growth.

China Housing: Weekly (To October 7th) Sales Data Points At A Slowdown In Tier-2 Cities

When a major property developer in China buys land (use rights), whether via auction or otherwise, such actions reflect primarily a judgment on deal-specific conditions, but they should also indicate the overall view on the future market conditions for the given city. This type of information gets more interesting if we combine the data for a number of major developers and over a period of time. In this short note, we identify the cities that have attracted the strongest interest of the 5 major developers in recent transactions.

When a major property developer in China buys land (use rights), whether via auction or otherwise, such actions reflect primarily a judgment on deal-specific conditions, but they should also indicate the overall view on the future market conditions for the given city. This type of information gets more interesting if we combine the data for a number of major developers and over a period of time. In this short note, we identify the cities that have attracted the strongest interest of the 5 major developers in recent transactions.

China Property: In Which Cities Have The Major Developers Been Buying Land?

Beijing Municipal Commission for City Planning and Land Resources Management announced on September 12 the plan for a significant increase in land supply 'near-term' for the city, for residential and mixed-use (including residential). Should other cities follow a similar path, it would in our view be very effective in cooling the price growth, with some time lag.

Beijing Municipal Commission for City Planning and Land Resources Management announced on September 12 the plan for a significant increase in land supply 'near-term' for the city, for residential and mixed-use (including residential). Should other cities follow a similar path, it would in our view be very effective in cooling the price growth, with some time lag.

China Property: Large Increase In Land Supply For Beijing - A Signal Of A New Policy?

China

Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial property developer, owner, and operator. The Company develops and manages mixed-use property projects including retail, office, hotel, residential, restaurant, entertainment, and other projects. Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group conducts businesses in China.

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

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Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

China Housing: September Price And Volume Data Still Strong But Expect Weaker October

New home sales price and volume data for September released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last Friday and Saturday shows the average...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: 4th Annual China Districts Report - Top Picks For The Next 1-2 Years (Highlights)

In our 4th annual China Districts report, we identify the districts and counties with the most likely upside potential for the local housing...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Weekly (To October 7th) Sales Data Points At A Slowdown In Tier-2 Cities

In this Weekly Sales note, we analyze the weekly sales volume data (in Gross Floor Area) for 12 major (4 Tier-1, 8 Tier-2) cities with consistent...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: In Which Cities Have The Major Developers Been Buying Land?

When a major property developer in China buys land (use rights), whether via auction or otherwise, such actions reflect primarily a judgment on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Large Increase In Land Supply For Beijing - A Signal Of A New Policy?

Beijing Municipal Commission for City Planning and Land Resources Management announced on September 12 the plan for a significant increase in land...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)