Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Delta Thailand has rallied 22.7% from its recent low, despite the local Thai market declining while the Taiwan market rose.</li>
<li>Latest Delta Thailand surge unlikely due to Thai market fund flows or company developments. Delta Taiwan generates 2.5x the net profit with similar growth, yet has a smaller market cap.</li>
<li>Over time, relative pricing should trend in Delta Taiwan's favor as valuations are likely to drive longer-term performance -- Also, should the SET50 Index be fixed? Seems broken.</li>
</ul>


Delta Thailand has rallied 22.7% from its recent low, despite the local Thai market declining while the Taiwan market rose.
Latest Delta Thailand surge unlikely due to Thai market fund flows or company developments. Delta Taiwan generates 2.5x the net profit with similar growth, yet has a smaller market cap.
Over time, relative pricing should trend in Delta Taiwan's favor as valuations are likely to drive longer-term performance -- Also, should the SET50 Index be fixed? Seems broken.


Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Stages Sharp Rebound; Should SET50 Index Be Fixed?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 12th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wistron, Novatek, Nan Ya Printed.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 12th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wistron, Novatek, Nan Ya Printed.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 12th): Wistron, Novatek, Nan Ya Printed

<ul>
<li>Both Delta Electronics Thailand and its parent Delta Electronics Taiwan reported results; both reports came in below analyst expectations.</li>
<li>Delta Thailand shares have dropped 19% since our recent update. The company also did a 10 for 1 share split in an apparent bid to make the shares look 'cheaper'.</li>
<li>Delta's EV business grew 100% YoY and is becoming a significant driver for the company. The pricing mis-alignment between Delta Thailand and Taiwan has corrected substantially.</li>
</ul>


Both Delta Electronics Thailand and its parent Delta Electronics Taiwan reported results; both reports came in below analyst expectations.
Delta Thailand shares have dropped 19% since our recent update. The company also did a 10 for 1 share split in an apparent bid to make the shares look 'cheaper'.
Delta's EV business grew 100% YoY and is becoming a significant driver for the company. The pricing mis-alignment between Delta Thailand and Taiwan has corrected substantially.


Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Crashes Vs. Taiwan After Results, Can Correct Further

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC is cutting its 2023E capex plans by 12% according to Taiwan's EDN. The company will also report earnings this Thursday.</li>
<li>TSMC suppliers ASML and Lam Research will also be reporting this week. Realtek will report this week as well.</li>
<li>Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta &amp; Pegatron pair.</li>
</ul>


TSMC is cutting its 2023E capex plans by 12% according to Taiwan's EDN. The company will also report earnings this Thursday.
TSMC suppliers ASML and Lam Research will also be reporting this week. Realtek will report this week as well.
Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta &amp; Pegatron pair.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cutting Capex, Earnings This Week; Suppliers ASML & Lam Also Will Report

Taiwan

Delta Electronics Inc. manufactures power supplies and video display products. The Company's products include switching power supplies, telecom power systems, uninterrupted power supply (UPS), variable speed alternating current (AC) monitor drives, high resolution color monitors, and projectors.  Delta also manufactures magnetic and networking components.

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Delta Electronics (2308 TT)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Stages Sharp Rebound; Should SET50 Index Be Fixed?

We believe a change in SET50 requirements should be in order, to change the rules relating to index inclusion in order to remove this broken index...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 12th): Wistron, Novatek, Nan Ya Printed

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Wistron, Novatek, Nan Ya Printed.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Crashes Vs. Taiwan After Results, Can Correct Further

Delta's EV business grew 100% YoY and is becoming a significant driver for the company. The pricing mis-alignment between Delta Thailand and Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cutting Capex, Earnings This Week; Suppliers ASML & Lam Also Will Report

Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta & Pegatron pair.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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