Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a> is India’s largest food service company. In hindsight, CEO's exit in March 2022 under a high inflationary environment was just "NOISE".</li>
<li>Industry drivers are favourable, JUBI's renewed focus on growth, additional brands and a new CEO, all put JUBI back on track to deliver robust growth. </li>
<li>Currently trading at 68.5x NTM, JUBI is available at a 22% discount compared to it's 3Y mean, considering the growth prospects discussed below, this discount is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) is India’s largest food service company. In hindsight, CEO's exit in March 2022 under a high inflationary environment was just "NOISE".
Industry drivers are favourable, JUBI's renewed focus on growth, additional brands and a new CEO, all put JUBI back on track to deliver robust growth. 
Currently trading at 68.5x NTM, JUBI is available at a 22% discount compared to it's 3Y mean, considering the growth prospects discussed below, this discount is attractive.


Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) | Discount Is Attractive

<ul>
<li>YTD <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapphire-foods-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34951:1" rel="noopener">Sapphire Foods (SAPPHIRE IN)</a> has delivered 10.5% vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/devyani-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33519:1" rel="noopener">Devyani International (DEVYANI IN)</a> which has delivered 7.9% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a> which has delivered -16.43%  (Relative to NIFTY).</li>
<li>On an NTM basis, SAPPHIRE at 58x trades 30% cheaper compared to DEVYANI, and only 16% cheaper than JUBI.</li>
<li>The business performance is poor, the worst capital allocation among peers is not expected to change materially in the near term warranting attention to YTD outperformance. </li>
</ul>


YTD Sapphire Foods (SAPPHIRE IN) has delivered 10.5% vs Devyani International (DEVYANI IN) which has delivered 7.9% and Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) which has delivered -16.43%  (Relative to NIFTY).
On an NTM basis, SAPPHIRE at 58x trades 30% cheaper compared to DEVYANI, and only 16% cheaper than JUBI.
The business performance is poor, the worst capital allocation among peers is not expected to change materially in the near term warranting attention to YTD outperformance. 


Sapphire Foods (SAPPHIRE IN) | Outperformance Not Justified

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ce-info-systems-mapmyindia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34215:1" rel="noopener">CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) (1052633Z IN)</a> raised around US$138m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>CE Info Systems is India’s leading provider of advanced digital maps, geospatial software and location-based IoT Technologies, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In our view, the best way to value the firm would be to compare it against its India peers which, based on our assumptions, provide an upside potential of 70.5-80.6%.</li>
</ul>



CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) (1052633Z IN) raised around US$138m in its India IPO.
CE Info Systems is India’s leading provider of advanced digital maps, geospatial software and location-based IoT Technologies, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In our view, the best way to value the firm would be to compare it against its India peers which, based on our assumptions, provide an upside potential of 70.5-80.6%.


CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) IPO Trading - Poised for a Solid Debut

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Near the end of the review period, we see 8 stocks migrating upward from Mid to Large Cap and 9 stocks migrating from Small to Mid Cap.</li>
<li>We expect 12 stocks to migrate downward from Large to Mid Cap and 19 stocks from Mid to Small Cap. Four new listings will be added to the Large Caps.</li>
<li>Historically, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the stocks migrating lower as the active funds rebalance their portfolios to meet regulations around stocks held based on the fund classification.</li>
</ul>


Near the end of the review period, we see 8 stocks migrating upward from Mid to Large Cap and 9 stocks migrating from Small to Mid Cap.
We expect 12 stocks to migrate downward from Large to Mid Cap and 19 stocks from Mid to Small Cap. Four new listings will be added to the Large Caps.
Historically, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the stocks migrating lower as the active funds rebalance their portfolios to meet regulations around stocks held based on the fund classification.


India: Half-Yearly Stock Reclassification for Active Funds

India

Devyani International Limited distributes groceries and related products. The Company operates franchisee business and chain of quick service restaurants. Devyani International serves customers in India.

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Devyani International (DEVYANI IN)

Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) | Discount Is Attractive

Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) is India’s largest food service company. Industry drivers are favourable, with a renewed focus on growth, additional...

Pranav Bhavsar

Sapphire Foods (SAPPHIRE IN) | Outperformance Not Justified

Sapphire Foods's business performance is poor, the worst capital allocation among peers is not expected to change materially in the near term...

Pranav Bhavsar

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) IPO Trading - Poised for a Solid Debut

CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) (1052633Z IN) raised around US$138m in its India IPO. Past deals with similar strong subscription rates have performed...

Clarence Chu

India: Half-Yearly Stock Reclassification for Active Funds

Upward migrations include 8 stocks from MidCap to LargeCap & 9 from SmallCap to MidCap. 4 new listings will join the LargeCaps and 6 new listings...

Brian Freitas

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