European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Direct Line Insurance Group Pl / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Direct Line–Aviva deal has cleared CMA and court hurdles; only procedural steps remain.</li>
<li>Implied value is 312.19p vs. 306.6p close — a 1.82% spread with 7-day horizon.</li>
<li>I recommend long arbitrage exposure below 307p. This is a textbook risk arb trade: liquid, near-fully de-risked, and short-dated.</li>
</ul>


Direct Line–Aviva deal has cleared CMA and court hurdles; only procedural steps remain.
Implied value is 312.19p vs. 306.6p close — a 1.82% spread with 7-day horizon.
I recommend long arbitrage exposure below 307p. This is a textbook risk arb trade: liquid, near-fully de-risked, and short-dated.


Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Aviva’s sweetened 275p proposal for Direct Line, with a 73.3% premium, aims to strengthen its UK insurance market leadership and achieve £100M+ cost synergies, enhancing profitability and competitiveness.</li>
<li>The proposal values Direct Line at an 13.05x forward P/E multiple, higher than its five-year average of 9.95x. The acquisition is a transformative move for Aviva amidst ongoing sector consolidation.</li>
<li>PUSU deadline is 25 December. Gross spread is 8.8%. I believe Aviva will make a firm offer and would be long the spread. </li>
</ul>


Aviva’s sweetened 275p proposal for Direct Line, with a 73.3% premium, aims to strengthen its UK insurance market leadership and achieve £100M+ cost synergies, enhancing profitability and competitiveness.
The proposal values Direct Line at an 13.05x forward P/E multiple, higher than its five-year average of 9.95x. The acquisition is a transformative move for Aviva amidst ongoing sector consolidation.
PUSU deadline is 25 December. Gross spread is 8.8%. I believe Aviva will make a firm offer and would be long the spread. 


Aviva/Direct Line: Preliminary Offer Agreement

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst, ORTEX

Harry Kalfas

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aviva-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21822:1" rel="noopener">Aviva's (AV/ LN)</a> £3.7B acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/direct-line-insurance-group-pl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21902:1" rel="noopener">Direct Line Insurance Group Pl (DLG LN)</a> combines two major insurers, with £125M in expected annual synergies by year three.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/direct-line-insurance-group-pl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21902:1" rel="noopener">Direct Line Insurance Group Pl (DLG LN)</a> shareholders to receive 0.2867 new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aviva-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21822:1" rel="noopener">Aviva (AV/ LN)</a> shares, 129.7p in cash, and up to 5p in pre-completion dividends per share held.</li>
<li>The acquisition is expected to impact major UK and European indices on an intra-quarter basis.</li>
</ul>



Aviva's (AV/ LN) £3.7B acquisition of Direct Line Insurance Group Pl (DLG LN) combines two major insurers, with £125M in expected annual synergies by year three.

Direct Line Insurance Group Pl (DLG LN) shareholders to receive 0.2867 new Aviva (AV/ LN) shares, 129.7p in cash, and up to 5p in pre-completion dividends per share held.
The acquisition is expected to impact major UK and European indices on an intra-quarter basis.


Aviva’s £3.7B Acquisition: Key Index Changes

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

BioPharma Credit PLC Fund / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see two M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review and then at least four more before the end of the year.</li>
<li>Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one regular change for F250 during the September 2025 rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We see two M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review and then at least four more before the end of the year.
Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one regular change for F250 during the September 2025 rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: High-Impact ADD Due to Rule Change + More Intra-Review Changes

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see three M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review <strong><em>(one announced later today)</em></strong> and then two more shortly after the rebal event. </li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F250 index during the September 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We see three M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review (one announced later today) and then two more shortly after the rebal event. 
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F250 index during the September 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25 Results: Methodology Change Could Result in a Surprise Addition

United Kingdom

Direct Line Insurance Group PLC provides personal and commercial insurance and services. The Company offers a range of insurance products including automobile, home, travel, pet, property, and accident insurance. Direct Line Insurance serves private customers and business clients online and by phone throughout the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy.

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Direct Line Insurance Group Pl (DLG LN)

Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity

Direct Line–Aviva merger is procedurally de-risked. 1.82% gross spread, 131.5% annualised IRR over 7 days. Liquid, short-dated UK scheme — ideal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Aviva/Direct Line: Preliminary Offer Agreement

Aviva’s sweetened 275p proposal for Direct Line, with a 73.3% premium, aims to strengthen its UK insurance market leadership.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Aviva’s £3.7B Acquisition: Key Index Changes

Aviva’s £3.7B acquisition of Direct Line will impact major UK and European indices, with Direct Line shareholders receiving cash and shares.

Harry Kalfas

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: High-Impact ADD Due to Rule Change + More Intra-Review Changes

BioPharma Credit PLC Fund (BPCR LN) has been our top F250 potential ADD after a recent rule change. This could be a high-impact index addition that...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25 Results: Methodology Change Could Result in a Surprise Addition

We see many high-impact F250 potential ADDs with opportunities to get added to the index during the regular Sep25 index review or on an intra...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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