Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

The Utah-based bank saw its credit costs in sharp reversal during the most recent quarter. This bank had stood out in our research some months ago, where its credit costs were 58x higher than recent levels. Figures can still improve.

The Utah-based bank saw its credit costs in sharp reversal during the most recent quarter. This bank had stood out in our research some months ago, where its credit costs were 58x higher than recent levels. Figures can still improve.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

This is not something that we are hearing about from all banks, or even a small percentage. But it is something that we must prepare for, a return to normal business levels. Norway’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dnb-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22227:1" rel="noopener">DNB ASA (DNB NO)</a> describes its customer activity and business levels as normal, just a few days ago. As we have indicated in much of our research, this should not be too great a surprise, as the current crisis is self-inflicted by governments enacting insane policies. As we re-open, the pace of recovery is reflecting this.

This is not something that we are hearing about from all banks, or even a small percentage. But it is something that we must prepare for, a return to normal business levels. Norway’s DNB ASA (DNB NO) describes its customer activity and business levels as normal, just a few days ago. As we have indicated in much of our research, this should not be too great a surprise, as the current crisis is self-inflicted by governments enacting insane policies. As we re-open, the pace of recovery is reflecting this.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Few countries compare. Banks in Indonesia saw staggering credit costs during 2Q20. For 40 banks the average rate of growth QoQ was 126%. The economy has reopened and there are improving signs, as with most every economies globally, at least outside of Latin America. Given banks' exceptional sequential growth in credit costs during the June quarter, Indonesia’s banks may have some of the most radical recoveries during 3Q20. Or at the least, their credit costs can come down just as dramatically.

Few countries compare. Banks in Indonesia saw staggering credit costs during 2Q20. For 40 banks the average rate of growth QoQ was 126%. The economy has reopened and there are improving signs, as with most every economies globally, at least outside of Latin America. Given banks' exceptional sequential growth in credit costs during the June quarter, Indonesia’s banks may have some of the most radical recoveries during 3Q20. Or at the least, their credit costs can come down just as dramatically.

We have seen with many European and US banks, a sharp reduction of credit costs during 2Q20 compared with 1Q20.  Even in Japan some banks have taken exceptionally high credit costs during the March quarter, suggesting there can be a major reduction during 1Q21 ending in June. There is an altogether different concern from some of Latin America’s largest banks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-unibanco-holding-sa-9d47d196-e503-471b-a84e-ca4401033062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24550:1" rel="noopener">Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-santander-mexico-sa-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27672:1" rel="noopener">Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM)</a> are two that stand out, with incredibly low provision expenses during 1Q20 relative to FY19. This can mean a sharp rise during 2Q20. We have already seen this with some LatAm peers.

We have seen with many European and US banks, a sharp reduction of credit costs during 2Q20 compared with 1Q20.  Even in Japan some banks have taken exceptionally high credit costs during the March quarter, suggesting there can be a major reduction during 1Q21 ending in June. There is an altogether different concern from some of Latin America’s largest banks. Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ) and Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM) are two that stand out, with incredibly low provision expenses during 1Q20 relative to FY19. This can mean a sharp rise during 2Q20. We have already seen this with some LatAm peers. 

LatAm Banks – Late Bloomers On Credit Costs?

Norway

DNB ASA is a commercial bank.  The Bank's services include retail, commercial, corporate, and investment banking, and life, pension, and non-life insurance. The services are provided to private customers, small businesses, and large companies.  DNB offers special services to the shipping industry.  The Bank operates through several subsidiaries in Norway and abroad.

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DNB ASA (DNB NO)

Zions – Most Prone To Reversals

Credit costs in FY20 were 11x higher than FY19, despite 4Q20 reversals. The bank can see a greater decline during FY21 than most US banks. It also...

Daniel Tabbush

Bullish Inflections Around The World

In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials & Energy Sectors.

Vermilion Research

DNB ASA – Business Is Back to Normal

Norway's DNB is indicating a return to normalcy in business; we may expect similar commentary from more banks in coming months

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesia Banks – Most To Recover?

Few countries compare. Banks in Indonesia saw staggering credit costs during 2Q20. For 40 banks the average rate of growth QoQ was 126%. The...

Daniel Tabbush

LatAm Banks – Late Bloomers On Credit Costs?

We have seen with many European and US banks, a sharp reduction of credit costs during 2Q20 compared with 1Q20. Even in Japan some banks have...

Daniel Tabbush

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