Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li> In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.</li>
<li>A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.</li>
<li>We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…</li>
</ul>


 In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.
A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.
We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…


China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further, though a gradual, slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30 to 32.1% for the Weeks 1-35). On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, however, the growth was 15.9% for Weeks 32-35, compared to 9.4% for Weeks 28-31.The official data for national sales volumes for August will be published on…

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further, though a gradual, slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30 to 32.1% for the Weeks 1-35). On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, however, the growth was 15.9% for Weeks 32-35, compared to 9.4% for Weeks 28-31.The official data for national sales volumes for August will be published on…

Weekly China Property Data For August Points At Further Gradual Slowdown In National Sales Growth

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

For interim 2016, Dongfeng Motor Group, or DFM, reported profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 6.8 billion, down 2% year on year. Excluding the impact of currency gains and losses, earnings were up 7% year on year, slightly above our estimate, but mainly boosted by higher associates contribution from PSA Peugeot Citroen. Earnings were robust for joint-venture brands with Japanese manufacturers, but were insufficient to offset declines in JV brands with PSA and in proprietary brands. We have adjusted our volume growth assumption downward, with little impact on our valuation.In July, DFM's passenger car sales volume was up 14% year on year, the fastest pace for the year to date. After the share price corrected more than 15% in August, the company is now attractively priced at 5 times projected 2016 earnings. We expect DPCA to see some improvement in sales during the fourth quarter, as the JV is scheduled to launch several new models in September.Analyst: Phillip Zhong

For interim 2016, Dongfeng Motor Group, or DFM, reported profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 6.8 billion, down 2% year on year. Excluding the impact of currency gains and losses, earnings were up 7% year on year, slightly above our estimate, but mainly boosted by higher associates contribution from PSA Peugeot Citroen. Earnings were robust for joint-venture brands with Japanese manufacturers, but were insufficient to offset declines in JV brands with PSA and in proprietary brands. We have adjusted our volume growth assumption downward, with little impact on our valuation.In July, DFM's passenger car sales volume was up 14% year on year, the fastest pace for the year to date. After the share price corrected more than 15% in August, the company is now attractively priced at 5 times projected 2016 earnings. We expect DPCA to see some improvement in sales during the fourth quarter, as the JV is scheduled to launch several new models in September.Analyst: Phillip Zhong

Results a Beat on Higher Associates Income From PSA

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

This Summer we visited over a dozen premium handbag stores in New York City and Honolulu in order to better understand the issues facing Coach and its peers in the evolving luxury retail space. We learned that an apparent change in spending habits by Asian visitors to North America, combined with ongoing weakness in Japan, Hong Kong, and Macau, will likely limit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13644" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13644:1">Coach Inc (COH US)</a> revenue growth in FY17 (June 2017) and FY18, making consensus Sales and EPS targets difficult to meet. Longer term, a growing reliance on US outlet stores and a push into smaller Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities in China may undermine the Coach brand. We believe our conclusions – mostly negative – have implications not only for Coach and its premium handbag peers, but also for any luxury retail brand that relies heavily on Asian tourism and consumption for growth.

This Summer we visited over a dozen premium handbag stores in New York City and Honolulu in order to better understand the issues facing Coach and its peers in the evolving luxury retail space. We learned that an apparent change in spending habits by Asian visitors to North America, combined with ongoing weakness in Japan, Hong Kong, and Macau, will likely limit Coach Inc (COH US) revenue growth in FY17 (June 2017) and FY18, making consensus Sales and EPS targets difficult to meet. Longer term, a growing reliance on US outlet stores and a push into smaller Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities in China may undermine the Coach brand. We believe our conclusions – mostly negative – have implications not only for Coach and its premium handbag peers, but also for any luxury retail brand that relies heavily on Asian tourism and consumption for growth.

Summer (Mis-)Adventures in Luxury Retail: Why to Avoid Coach (6388:HK / COH:US) For Now

China

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited, through joint ventures, designs, manufactures, and markets diesel engines, light trucks, automobiles, castings, and related spare parts.

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Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)

China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating...

David Riedel

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This...

Christopher Balding

Weekly China Property Data For August Points At Further Gradual Slowdown In National Sales Growth

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further,...

Robert Ciemniak

Results a Beat on Higher Associates Income From PSA

For interim 2016, Dongfeng Motor Group, or DFM, reported profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 6.8 billion, down 2% year on year. Excluding...

Morningstar, Inc.

Summer (Mis-)Adventures in Luxury Retail: Why to Avoid Coach (6388:HK / COH:US) For Now

This Summer we visited over a dozen premium handbag stores in New York City and Honolulu in order to better understand the issues facing Coach and...

Daniel Hellberg

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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