IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2217 HK)</a> announced a scheme privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toridoll-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8193:1" rel="noopener">TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)</a> at HK$1.58 per share, a 75.6% premium to the last close price. </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Tam Jai International (2217 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP) at HK$1.58 per share, a 75.6% premium to the last close price. 
The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal. 


Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$1.58

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/guming-holdings-good-me-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:173217" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/guming-holdings-good-me-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:173512" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case and Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.
</li>
</ul>


During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.

Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.


MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, the consumer discretionary sector is leading in momentum and strength while the energy and materials sectors lag.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> received BUY ratings after a strong 3Q24 announcement on revenue and earnings.  China's tourist numbers are projected to reach Pre-COVID levels soon.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (YUMC US)</a> received BUY ratings after initial success from its small store/franchising strategy.  The company is actively returning capital to shareholders.</li>
</ul>


As Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, the consumer discretionary sector is leading in momentum and strength while the energy and materials sectors lag.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) , Trip.com (TCOM US) received BUY ratings after a strong 3Q24 announcement on revenue and earnings.  China's tourist numbers are projected to reach Pre-COVID levels soon.

Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) , Yum China Holdings (YUMC US) received BUY ratings after initial success from its small store/franchising strategy.  The company is actively returning capital to shareholders.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

<ul>
<li>Although Hong Kong markets have slumped after Trump's election, mainland China's markets have gained.  Southbound net buying of HK stocks hit a 2024 high on the day Trump won.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> had a breakout from a double top as Macau recorded good Golden Week arrivals.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-moon-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29179:1" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Holdings (6993 HK)</a> had a breakout after 3 years.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (6185 HK)</a> formed a breakout after a new vaccine was approved and it reported better results.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> share price advanced as it expands stores.
</li>
</ul>


Although Hong Kong markets have slumped after Trump's election, mainland China's markets have gained.  Southbound net buying of HK stocks hit a 2024 high on the day Trump won.

Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a double top as Macau recorded good Golden Week arrivals.  Blue Moon Group Holdings (6993 HK) had a breakout after 3 years.


CanSino Biologics (6185 HK) formed a breakout after a new vaccine was approved and it reported better results.  Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) share price advanced as it expands stores.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (NOVEMBER 13)

China

DPC Dash Ltd, also known as "Domino's Pizza China", operates franchise fast food restaurants. The Company through its chain stores, supplies pizza, drinks, and other related snacks. DPC Dash operates as the master franchisee in China Mainland, Hong Kong, and Macau.

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DPC Dash (1405 HK)

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$1.58

The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is...

Arun George

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Pricing is on 10 February, and the shares will be listed...

Arun George

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

Hong Kong show decreased volatility and increased mainland buying continue since the US election. YUM China share price broke out (golden...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

Hong Kong and China markets are outperforming their Asian peers this year. Trip.com announced strong results as China's tourism industry...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (NOVEMBER 13)

Mainland China's A-share market advanced after Trump's election as South Connect buying hit a 3 year high. Sands China had a breakout as Macau...

David Mudd

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