European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Net debt improved by around €1 billion to c. €5.8 billion. Prioritising deleveraging and allocations to new venture investments over dividends seem to have a negative impact on valuation.</li>
<li>Porsche SE is viewed as a holding company of Volkswagen Group, which should warrant a discount of 15%-25% on the stock, instead of the massive 44.6% discount to NAV.</li>
<li>Assuming a typical company holding discount of 15-25% range, the current share price indicates Porsche SE is liable for the whole c. €6.5 billion legal claims.</li>
</ul>


Net debt improved by around €1 billion to c. €5.8 billion. Prioritising deleveraging and allocations to new venture investments over dividends seem to have a negative impact on valuation.
Porsche SE is viewed as a holding company of Volkswagen Group, which should warrant a discount of 15%-25% on the stock, instead of the massive 44.6% discount to NAV.
Assuming a typical company holding discount of 15-25% range, the current share price indicates Porsche SE is liable for the whole c. €6.5 billion legal claims.


Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update

<ul>
<li>My updated SOTP shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/porsche-automobil-holding-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21691:1" rel="noopener">Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)</a> is trading at a still massive 41.2% discount/NAV, implying that Porsche SE is liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims, maybe too harsh.</li>
<li>Recent rulings have been favourable. The discount is partly due to capital allocation leaning towards debt servicing. Porsche SE is trading at 2024e 2.6x Fwd P/E and 7.3% dividend yield.</li>
<li>Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG through a discounted and levered investment. Discount to NAV should systematically decrease.</li>
</ul>


My updated SOTP shows that Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR) is trading at a still massive 41.2% discount/NAV, implying that Porsche SE is liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims, maybe too harsh.
Recent rulings have been favourable. The discount is partly due to capital allocation leaning towards debt servicing. Porsche SE is trading at 2024e 2.6x Fwd P/E and 7.3% dividend yield.
Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG through a discounted and levered investment. Discount to NAV should systematically decrease.


Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

<ul>
<li>Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10 widened, 1 at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Zeekr, a premium EV brand by Geely, aims to raise around US$1bn (estimated) in its US listing in 1H2023. GS, BofA and MS are said to be running the deal.</li>
<li>Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.</li>
<li>In this note, we take an early look at the IPO based on publicly avaiable information.</li>
</ul>


Zeekr, a premium EV brand by Geely, aims to raise around US$1bn (estimated) in its US listing in 1H2023. GS, BofA and MS are said to be running the deal.
Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
In this note, we take an early look at the IPO based on publicly avaiable information.


Zeekr IPO Early Look - Possibly US$0 to US$7bn Revenue in Under Three Years

<ul>
<li>Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, <strong>Volkswagen</strong> (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘23 Report

Germany

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Aktiengesellschaft manufactures passenger vehicles. The Company offers sports cars, SUVs, and other motor vehicles, as well as provides finance services. Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche serves customers worldwide.

Dr Ing hc F Porsche (P911 GR)

Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update

Porsche SE's focus on reducing debt and investing in new ventures impacts valuation, leading to a significant discount on stock price compared to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report

Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zeekr IPO Early Look - Possibly US$0 to US$7bn Revenue in Under Three Years

Zeekr, a premium EV brand by Geely, publicly filed for a US IPO overnight. The company had earlier planned to raise over US$1bn.

Sumeet Singh

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘23 Report

Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary (voting) and preferred (non-voting) shares...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update

​Porsche SE's focus on reducing debt and investing in new ventures impacts valuation, leading to a significant discount on stock price compared to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

​Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘23 Report

Since mid-October, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zeekr IPO Early Look - Possibly US$0 to US$7bn Revenue in Under Three Years

Zeekr, a premium EV brand by Geely, publicly filed for a US IPO overnight. The company had earlier planned to raise over US$1bn.

Sumeet Singh

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘23 Report

Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary (voting) and preferred (non-voting) shares...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche SE's focus on reducing debt and investing in new ventures impacts valuation, leading to a significant discount on stock price compared to...

Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...