Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;</li>
<li>TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn't cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;</li>
<li>TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump's Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.</li>
</ul>


On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;
TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn't cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;
TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump's Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.


TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Midea Group Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a>, the world’s biggest home appliances maker, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$3 billion.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/midea-group-h-share-listing-latest-updates-points-to-a-business-in-rude-health" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157653" rel="noopener">Midea Group H Share Listing: Latest Updates Points to a Business in Rude Health</a></strong></em>, we noted that Midea is in good health, with strong growth, margins, and cash generation.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the likely discount that Midea will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.</li>
</ul>



Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH), the world’s biggest home appliances maker, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$3 billion.
In Midea Group H Share Listing: Latest Updates Points to a Business in Rude Health, we noted that Midea is in good health, with strong growth, margins, and cash generation.
In this note, we examine the likely discount that Midea will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.


Midea Group H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a>, the world’s biggest home appliances maker, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$3 billion.   </li>
<li>Midea is the world’s largest home appliance company in sales volume and revenue in 2023. Its subsidiary, KUKA Group, is one of the world’s “big four” industrial robotics companies. </li>
<li>The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with accelerating growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified. </li>
</ul>



Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH), the world’s biggest home appliances maker, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$3 billion.   
Midea is the world’s largest home appliance company in sales volume and revenue in 2023. Its subsidiary, KUKA Group, is one of the world’s “big four” industrial robotics companies. 
The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with accelerating growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified. 


Midea Group H Share Listing: Latest Updates Points to a Business in Rude Health

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 12 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> and 50 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX)</a> in June. Most changes were expected.</li>
<li>There are a lot of stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. The round-trip trade in June is estimated to be US$5bn.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes for both indices but the return profile of a long adds/ short deletes trade for the CSI500 Index is a lot smoother.</li>
</ul>


There are 12 changes for the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) and 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) in June. Most changes were expected.
There are a lot of stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. The round-trip trade in June is estimated to be US$5bn.
The adds have outperformed the deletes for both indices but the return profile of a long adds/ short deletes trade for the CSI500 Index is a lot smoother.


CSI300/CSI500 Index Rebalance: Big Flows and US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

China Merchants Expressway Net / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

China

Ecovacs Robotics Co., Ltd. designs and sells household maintenance technology based products. The Company offers robotic floor and window cleaners for residential and commercial applications.

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Ecovacs Robotics (603486 CH)

TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

Temasek bought 13% of TUYA and planned to list on SGX. We believe TUYA's valuation is high and the company's business model, customer segment and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CSI300/CSI500 Index Rebalance: Big Flows and US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI300/CSI500 indices rebalance at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the inclusions to the CSI300 index have outperformed the deletes by...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

There could be 11 changes for the CSI300 in June with multiple days of ADV to trade on most names. The potential deletes have bounced recently but...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

Temasek bought 13% of TUYA and planned to list on SGX. We believe TUYA's valuation is high and the company's business model, customer segment and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Midea Group H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

Midea is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$3 billion. In this note, we examine the likely discount that Midea will offer its H Shares...

Arun George

Midea Group H Share Listing: Latest Updates Points to a Business in Rude Health

The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with accelerating growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a...

Arun George

CSI300/CSI500 Index Rebalance: Big Flows and US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI300/CSI500 indices rebalance at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the inclusions to the CSI300 index have outperformed the deletes by...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

There could be 11 changes for the CSI300 in June with multiple days of ADV to trade on most names. The potential deletes have bounced recently but...

Brian Freitas