Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The YTD FY2025 sales volume of commercial vehicle(CV) companies has been soft due to elections,sluggish government capital expenditure and less replacement demand. However,Jan2025 saw a modest uptick in wholesale volume.</li>
<li>Domestic volumes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a>,and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> grew by 21%, 2%,and 3% YoY, respectively,while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> declined by 2%.</li>
<li>According to industry reports and management interviews, the commercial vehicle industry is expected to remain largely flat in FY2025 and hopes for a positive growth in FY2026.</li>
</ul>


The YTD FY2025 sales volume of commercial vehicle(CV) companies has been soft due to elections,sluggish government capital expenditure and less replacement demand. However,Jan2025 saw a modest uptick in wholesale volume.
Domestic volumes for Eicher Motors (EIM IN),Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN),and Ashok Leyland (AL IN) grew by 21%, 2%,and 3% YoY, respectively,while Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) declined by 2%.
According to industry reports and management interviews, the commercial vehicle industry is expected to remain largely flat in FY2025 and hopes for a positive growth in FY2026.


Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

<ul>
<li>With the government’s push for consumption through tax relief, the Indian two industry is optimistic about a strong demand in coming months.</li>
<li>Domestic volumes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) </a>declined 11% and 2%YoY,respectively,while for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)increased 10% and 15% YoY,respectively</a>
</li>
<li>In the exports segment, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> recorded YoY volume growth of 37%, 52%, and 141%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


With the government’s push for consumption through tax relief, the Indian two industry is optimistic about a strong demand in coming months.
Domestic volumes for Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) declined 11% and 2%YoY,respectively,while forTVS Motor (TVSL IN) and Eicher Motors (EIM IN)increased 10% and 15% YoY,respectively

In the exports segment, Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) , TVS Motor (TVSL IN) , and Eicher Motors (EIM IN) recorded YoY volume growth of 37%, 52%, and 141%, respectively.


Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Two-Wheeler Companies (January 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following their inclusion in the F&amp;O segment in November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> is a certain deletion from the index. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries</a>' average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp</a>'s. It's very close.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Following their inclusion in the F&amp;O segment in November, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the NIFTY Index in March.

Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is a certain deletion from the index. Britannia Industries' average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below Hero Motocorp's. It's very close.
Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

<ul>
<li>The 9M FY2025 sales volume of commercial vehicle(CV) companies have been soft due to the elections, uneven monsoon and slow capital expenditure.</li>
<li>In December2024, sales showed varied performance across major players. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> saw slight YoY decline,while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> &amp;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> experienced growth in exports.</li>
<li>A recovery in sales is expected in Q4 FY2025 due to improved freight movement, resumption of construction and mining activities, and renewed government spending on infrastructural projects.</li>
</ul>


The 9M FY2025 sales volume of commercial vehicle(CV) companies have been soft due to the elections, uneven monsoon and slow capital expenditure.
In December2024, sales showed varied performance across major players. Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) saw slight YoY decline,while Ashok Leyland (AL IN) &amp;Eicher Motors (EIM IN) experienced growth in exports.
A recovery in sales is expected in Q4 FY2025 due to improved freight movement, resumption of construction and mining activities, and renewed government spending on infrastructural projects.


Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN)</a> ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.</li>
<li>The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.</li>
<li>The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.</li>
</ul>


The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.


Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

India

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

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Eicher Motors (EIM IN)

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

Retail Sales Update: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations(FADA)’s January 2025 update shows a 8.22% YoY and 38.04% MoM rise in commercial...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Two-Wheeler Companies (January 2025)

Retail Sales Update: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations(FADA)’s Jan'25 update shows a 4.15% YoY and 27.39% MoM rise in two-wheeler...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

Zomato and JioFin should replace BPCL and Britannia in March. Hero Motors just avoids deletion for now. Passives need to trade 3.7-11.8x ADV (8.4...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies

Commercial vehicle sales in FY2025 have been impacted by elections, monsoons, and slow capex, but a Q4 recovery is expected with improved freight...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

Hyundai Motor India has a lock-up expiry tomorrow - that is unlikely to lead to big selling but will increase free float. There will be multiple...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies (January 2025)

Retail Sales Update: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations(FADA)’s January 2025 update shows a 8.22% YoY and 38.04% MoM rise in commercial...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Two-Wheeler Companies (January 2025)

Retail Sales Update: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations(FADA)’s Jan'25 update shows a 4.15% YoY and 27.39% MoM rise in two-wheeler...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

Zomato and JioFin should replace BPCL and Britannia in March. Hero Motors just avoids deletion for now. Passives need to trade 3.7-11.8x ADV (8.4...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Sales Overview of Listed Indian Commercial Vehicle Companies

​Commercial vehicle sales in FY2025 have been impacted by elections, monsoons, and slow capex, but a Q4 recovery is expected with improved freight...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

Hyundai Motor India has a lock-up expiry tomorrow - that is unlikely to lead to big selling but will increase free float. There will be multiple...

Brian Freitas

Commercial vehicle sales in FY2025 have been impacted by elections, monsoons, and slow capex, but a Q4 recovery is expected with improved freight...