Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global uranium demand is escalating quickly as China doubles its nuclear power plants by 2030 and the U.S. increases its inventory for its energy independence and growing energy needs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6426:1" rel="noopener">CGN Mining (1164 HK)</a> is China's largest uranium trading company, with partnerships with the Kazakhstan government in some of the largest uranium mines in the world.
</li>
<li>CGN secured an off-take contract with China General Nuclear Power Group at prices that are 50% higher than previous contract.  Approximately 60% of CGN's revenue is from EU and U.S.</li>
</ul>


Global uranium demand is escalating quickly as China doubles its nuclear power plants by 2030 and the U.S. increases its inventory for its energy independence and growing energy needs.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) is China's largest uranium trading company, with partnerships with the Kazakhstan government in some of the largest uranium mines in the world.

CGN secured an off-take contract with China General Nuclear Power Group at prices that are 50% higher than previous contract.  Approximately 60% of CGN's revenue is from EU and U.S.


CGN Mining (1164 HK) - THE NUCLEAR OPTION!

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 15th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Paladin Energy, Macquarie, Emerald Resource, IDP Education, BHP, ANZ, Wisetech Global.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 15th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Paladin Energy, Macquarie, Emerald Resource, IDP Education, BHP, ANZ, Wisetech Global.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 15th): CSL, Paladin Energy, Macquarie, Emerald Resource

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CBA, Pilbara Minerals, Fortescue Metals, ANZ, NAB.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CBA, Pilbara Minerals, Fortescue Metals, ANZ, NAB.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 23rd): Short Covering for Banks

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW:  We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27448" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27448:1">Uranium (UXA COMDTY)</a> prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments aimed at reducing and managing industry oversupply.  
This should bode well for industry majors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27155" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27155:1">Cameco Corp (CCJ US)</a> and may also support junior miners like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27449" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27449:1">Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN)</a> for investors with a higher risk/reward profile. 
The CEO of Toronto listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27449" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27449:1">Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN)</a> was in Singapore last week and below is a summary of our conclusions:

INVESTMENT VIEW:   We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments aimed at reducing and managing industry oversupply.  
This should bode well for industry majors like Cameco Corp (CCJ US) and may also support junior miners like Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN) for investors with a higher risk/reward profile. 
The CEO of Toronto listed Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN) was in Singapore last week and below is a summary of our conclusions: 

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

Australia

Energy Resources of Australia Limited is a uranium company which mines, processes and sells uranium oxide from the Ranger mine in the Northern Territory and uranium concentrates sourced outside Australia to nuclear electric utilities in Japan, South Korea, Europe and North America.  The Company also provides environmental consulting services.

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Energy Resources of Australia (ERA AU)

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - THE NUCLEAR OPTION!

CGN Mining said its uranium production for the third quarter totaled 644.3 tonnes, achieving 96.5% of the planned output of 667.7 tonnes, according...

David Mudd

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 15th): CSL, Paladin Energy, Macquarie, Emerald Resource

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CSL, Paladin Energy, Macquarie, Emerald Resource,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 23rd): Short Covering for Banks

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CBA, Pilbara Minerals, Fortescue Metals, ANZ, NAB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments...

Charles Spencer

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