Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.  

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely.

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

South Africa has limited historical oil and gas production, with current production of c.25 Kboe/day largely gas-focused for the Mossel Bay GTL plant. However, we have seen renewed industry interest in offshore South African exploration licenses recently, following significant oil discoveries around the Falkland Islands. With farm-ins by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/812" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:812:1">Total Sa (FP FP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21030" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21030:1">Statoil ASA (STL NO)</a> and Qatar Petroleum in late-2017/early-2018, coupled with robust oil price expectations for the medium-term, we believe the region is well placed for near-term frontier exploration and significant resource upside potential. Following its recent USD 45m private placement, we highlight Africa Energy Corp (AFE TSX) as a well-funded top pick to play this theme.

South Africa has limited historical oil and gas production, with current production of c.25 Kboe/day largely gas-focused for the Mossel Bay GTL plant. However, we have seen renewed industry interest in offshore South African exploration licenses recently, following significant oil discoveries around the Falkland Islands. With farm-ins by Total Sa (FP FP) , Statoil ASA (STL NO) and Qatar Petroleum in late-2017/early-2018, coupled with robust oil price expectations for the medium-term, we believe the region is well placed for near-term frontier exploration and significant resource upside potential. Following its recent USD 45m private placement, we highlight Africa Energy Corp (AFE TSX) as a well-funded top pick to play this theme.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Norway

Equinor ASA operates as an energy company. The Company develops oil, gas, wind, and solar energy projects, as well as focuses on offshore operations and exploration services. Equinor serves customers worldwide.

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Equinor (EQNR NO)

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI...

Vermilion Research

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Global E&Ps: South Africa in Focus

South Africa has limited historical oil and gas production, with current production of c.25 Kboe/day largely gas-focused for the Mossel Bay GTL...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

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