Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> 's shares saw a sharp fall of 7% on Monday.</li>
<li>The fact that RBI shortened the tenure of MD &amp; CEO to two years baffled the market. </li>
<li>Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been seen earlier also for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency, hence investors should not be too worried.</li>
</ul>



Indusind Bank (IIB IN) 's shares saw a sharp fall of 7% on Monday.
The fact that RBI shortened the tenure of MD &amp; CEO to two years baffled the market. 
Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been seen earlier also for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency, hence investors should not be too worried.


IndusInd Bank- RBI's Decision May Not Be a Red Flag

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Fusion Micro Finance / Equity Capital Markets

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fusion-micro-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36450:1" rel="noopener">Fusion Micro Finance Ltd (1053199D IN)</a> raised approximately US$134m in its India IPO.  </li>
<li>Fusion Micro Finance (FMF) is a non-banking financial company - microfinance institution (NBFC-MFI) that provides financial services to unserved and underserved women in rural and peri-rural areas across India.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Fusion Micro Finance Ltd (1053199D IN) raised approximately US$134m in its India IPO.  
Fusion Micro Finance (FMF) is a non-banking financial company - microfinance institution (NBFC-MFI) that provides financial services to unserved and underserved women in rural and peri-rural areas across India.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading dynamics.


Fusion Micro Finance IPO Trading - Weak Demand Seems Justified

Equity Bottom-Up

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ujjivan-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22697:1" rel="noopener">Ujjivan Financial Services (UJJIVAN IN)</a> had announced a reverse merger back in October 2021 where the holding company (Ujjivan FS) will be merged with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ujjivan-small-finance-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28443:1" rel="noopener">Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (UJJIVANS IN)</a>.</li>
<li>The share swap ratio given in the scheme of amalgamation clearly showcases a significant merger arbitrage opportunity.</li>
<li>However, there has been no major interest in this very visible opportunity. We try to justify the market behavior.</li>
</ul>



Ujjivan Financial Services (UJJIVAN IN) had announced a reverse merger back in October 2021 where the holding company (Ujjivan FS) will be merged with Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (UJJIVANS IN).
The share swap ratio given in the scheme of amalgamation clearly showcases a significant merger arbitrage opportunity.
However, there has been no major interest in this very visible opportunity. We try to justify the market behavior.


Ujjivan Reverse Merger: Behind the Dull Response

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<p>The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. </p>
</div>
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<p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Operating environment &amp; outlook, Business performance, Collection &amp; Credit Awareness, Asset Quality &amp; Restructuring, Liability franchise &amp; deposits, Digital banking, Future business drivers &amp; new launches</p>
</div>
<p>Companies covered in this Insight include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-small-finance-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24196:1" rel="noopener">AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ujjivan-small-finance-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28443:1" rel="noopener">Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (USFB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/equitas-small-finance-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28834:1" rel="noopener">Equitas Small Finance Bank (ESFB IN)</a></p>


The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. 


For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Operating environment &amp; outlook, Business performance, Collection &amp; Credit Awareness, Asset Quality &amp; Restructuring, Liability franchise &amp; deposits, Digital banking, Future business drivers &amp; new launches

Companies covered in this Insight include AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) / Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (USFB IN) / Equitas Small Finance Bank (ESFB IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Small Finance Banks - AUBANK, USFB, ESFB

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 5 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks.</p><p>The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.</p><p>In the upcoming recategorization in January 2021, we see 6 stocks moved from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 12 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the same number moving the other way. There are quite a few IPOs that will join the small cap list, with just 1 joining the large cap list and 1 joining the mid cap list.</p><p>Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.</p>

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 5 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.In the upcoming recategorization in January 2021, we see 6 stocks moved from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 12 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the same number moving the other way. There are quite a few IPOs that will join the small cap list, with just 1 joining the large cap list and 1 joining the mid cap list.Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

India: AMFI Stock Categorization Changes to Drive Active Portfolio Churn

India

Equitas Small Finance Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Bank offers savings accounts, fixed deposits, loans, debit and credit cards, investment, insurance, online services, and other related activities. Equitas Small Finance Bank serves clients in India.

Equitas Small Finance Bank  (EQUITASB IN)

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Equitas Small Finance Bank (EQUITASB IN)

IndusInd Bank- RBI's Decision May Not Be a Red Flag

Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been common for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency which is why...

Nitin Mangal

Fusion Micro Finance IPO Trading - Weak Demand Seems Justified

Fusion Micro Finance Ltd (1053199D IN) raised approximately US$134m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the...

Ethan Aw

Ujjivan Reverse Merger: Behind the Dull Response

The share swap ratio clearly showcases a significant merger arbitrage opportunity. However, there has been no major interest in this very visible...

Nitin Mangal

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Small Finance Banks - AUBANK, USFB, ESFB

Companies covered in this Insight include AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) / Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (USFB IN) / Equitas Small Finance...

Pranav Bhavsar

India: AMFI Stock Categorization Changes to Drive Active Portfolio Churn

The reclassification of stocks to large, mid and small cap will set off a churn in mutual fund portfolios where historically stocks migrating...

Brian Freitas

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Market Cap (USDm)

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