Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-bureau-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31060:1" rel="noopener">Credit Bureau Asia (CBA SP)</a> subscription-based services and transaction fees generate consistent, recurring revenue from financial institutions and other businesses, ensuring significant financial stability and strong financial metrics.</li>
<li>Regulatory relationships, vast data repositories, and long-standing client relationships and contracts create significant competitive advantages and protect market share.</li>
<li>If markets can get comfortable with this microcap delivering 3% long-term growth forecast and sustainability of current operating and financial metrics the stock should see at least100% upside.  </li>
</ul>



Credit Bureau Asia (CBA SP) subscription-based services and transaction fees generate consistent, recurring revenue from financial institutions and other businesses, ensuring significant financial stability and strong financial metrics.
Regulatory relationships, vast data repositories, and long-standing client relationships and contracts create significant competitive advantages and protect market share.
If markets can get comfortable with this microcap delivering 3% long-term growth forecast and sustainability of current operating and financial metrics the stock should see at least100% upside.  


Credit Bureau Asia: Good Fundamentals Even Better Valuations

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ctos-digital-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33496:1" rel="noopener">CTOS Digital (1054055D MK)</a> is a regional market leader for credit bureaux in the ASEAN region, with a presence in Malaysia and Thailand. CTOS is Malaysia’s leading CRA (credit reporting agency), with a revenue market share of 71.2% in 2020, according to IMR.  </p><p>CTOS has launched an IPO to raise RM1.2 billion ($290 million) at an initial price of RM1.10 per share. The primary/secondary split is 18%/82%. The selling shareholders are Inodes (backed by the Creador Group), Chung Tze Keong (co-founder), Chung Tze Wen (co-founder) and Ng Gaik Lin. Pricing will be announced on 7 July and the shares will be listed on 19 July.</p><p>CTOS has a dominant position in Malaysia, which is the second-largest CRA market in ASEAN by revenue. The recent acquisition of Basis, a Malaysian CRA, further cements its position in Malaysia. CTOS' market share is supported by the industry’s high barriers to entry, CTOS’s proprietary database ecosystem and a full suite of digital solutions with a focus on new value-added services. CTOS’ acquisition strategy has also enabled it to gain a foothold in merging credit reporting markets outside of Malaysia. For example, the acquisition of a 20% interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/business-online-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18347:1" rel="noopener">Business Online (BOL TB)</a>, the largest credit bureaux in Thailand, provides an entry point into the Thai market.    </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>CTOS is complementing its strong market position by delivering solid revenue growth (on a like-for-like basis), strong customer retention rates, sector leading margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we think that the CTOS story warrants a closer look.  We will discuss valuation in our next note.  </p></div>

CTOS Digital (1054055D MK) is a regional market leader for credit bureaux in the ASEAN region, with a presence in Malaysia and Thailand. CTOS is Malaysia’s leading CRA (credit reporting agency), with a revenue market share of 71.2% in 2020, according to IMR.  CTOS has launched an IPO to raise RM1.2 billion ($290 million) at an initial price of RM1.10 per share. The primary/secondary split is 18%/82%. The selling shareholders are Inodes (backed by the Creador Group), Chung Tze Keong (co-founder), Chung Tze Wen (co-founder) and Ng Gaik Lin. Pricing will be announced on 7 July and the shares will be listed on 19 July.CTOS has a dominant position in Malaysia, which is the second-largest CRA market in ASEAN by revenue. The recent acquisition of Basis, a Malaysian CRA, further cements its position in Malaysia. CTOS' market share is supported by the industry’s high barriers to entry, CTOS’s proprietary database ecosystem and a full suite of digital solutions with a focus on new value-added services. CTOS’ acquisition strategy has also enabled it to gain a foothold in merging credit reporting markets outside of Malaysia. For example, the acquisition of a 20% interest in Business Online (BOL TB), the largest credit bureaux in Thailand, provides an entry point into the Thai market.    CTOS is complementing its strong market position by delivering solid revenue growth (on a like-for-like basis), strong customer retention rates, sector leading margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we think that the CTOS story warrants a closer look.  We will discuss valuation in our next note.  

CTOS Digital IPO Initiation: Keeping Tabs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Royal Bank Of Canada / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.</li>
<li>Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight</li>
<li>Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.</li>
</ul>


The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.
Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight
Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.


S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Ireland

Experian PLC offers credit and marketing services.  The Company manages large databases that enable credit granting and monitoring, and help minimize fraud and credit risk; offers specialist analytical solutions for credit scoring, risk management, and processing applications; processes checks and credit cards; and offers consumers credit reports and scores.

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Experian PLC (EXPN LN)

Credit Bureau Asia: Good Fundamentals Even Better Valuations

CBA is a dominant and entrenched credit and risk information provider in Southeast Asia, with resilient business model and strong financials, now...

Pyari Menon

CTOS Digital IPO Initiation: Keeping Tabs

CTOS is complementing its strong market position by delivering solid growth, strong customer retention rates, sector leading margin and strong cash...

Arun George

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

$SPX and MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading Outlook on ACWI and SPX to Bullish as of last Fridays close above 5783; Buys in Services, Financials;...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

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