Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fanuc is a core structural growth stock that has fallen by -4% over the past year. We turn bullish with 8 days to earnings</li>
<li>We believe that Fanuc is a key beneficiary of continued investment in automation and realignment of supply chains globally</li>
<li>We focus on Fanuc’s core value drivers – revenue, margins, risk and investment – and see 25% upside for long term investors</li>
</ul>


Fanuc is a core structural growth stock that has fallen by -4% over the past year. We turn bullish with 8 days to earnings
We believe that Fanuc is a key beneficiary of continued investment in automation and realignment of supply chains globally
We focus on Fanuc’s core value drivers – revenue, margins, risk and investment – and see 25% upside for long term investors


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.
JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY
DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.


Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Nidec has become an auto parts and factory automation company and should be valued as such. At 24x EPS guidance for FY Mar-23, the shares do not look particularly cheap.</li>
<li>1H results were good, but heavy up-front investment in e-axle traction motor systems for electric vehicles points to deferred gratification for shareholders. </li>
<li>Recession is starting to bite, the Yen is up and Japanese interest rates have only started to rise. Be careful when buying for long-term growth.</li>
</ul>


Nidec has become an auto parts and factory automation company and should be valued as such. At 24x EPS guidance for FY Mar-23, the shares do not look particularly cheap.
1H results were good, but heavy up-front investment in e-axle traction motor systems for electric vehicles points to deferred gratification for shareholders. 
Recession is starting to bite, the Yen is up and Japanese interest rates have only started to rise. Be careful when buying for long-term growth.


<ul>
<li>Machine Tool Orders in Japan decreased to 141 billion yen in October from 149 billion yen a year ago.</li>
<li>The 5.4% decline marks the start of the third downturn in Machine Tool Orders over the past decade. </li>
<li>We analyse those downturns and believe that Fanuc’s stock price has probably hit bottom, but THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT</li>
</ul>


Machine Tool Orders in Japan decreased to 141 billion yen in October from 149 billion yen a year ago.
The 5.4% decline marks the start of the third downturn in Machine Tool Orders over the past decade. 
We analyse those downturns and believe that Fanuc’s stock price has probably hit bottom, but THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT


<ul>
<li>
<strong>Good Morning Japan:</strong> We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact the trading day in Japan. Like this ?  Feedback appreciated !</li>
<li>BUY EVERY RALLY:  Equities, USD, Yen - market now priced in peak CPI and Fed Pivot. Still, we have a ways to go.</li>
<li>NKY to up 1.8% vs cash; Yen now 141 handle - not positive for all companies; Buybacks continue at a torried pace; Machine Tools -YoY. Negative Fanuc</li>
</ul>



Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact the trading day in Japan. Like this ?  Feedback appreciated !
BUY EVERY RALLY:  Equities, USD, Yen - market now priced in peak CPI and Fed Pivot. Still, we have a ways to go.
NKY to up 1.8% vs cash; Yen now 141 handle - not positive for all companies; Buybacks continue at a torried pace; Machine Tools -YoY. Negative Fanuc


Good Morning Japan | Inflation Slain? = Buy Everything Rally

Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

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Fanuc Corp Unsp Adr (FANUY US)

Fanuc (6954) | Bullish on Robots

Fanuc is a core structural growth stock that has fallen by -4% over the past year. We turn bullish with 8 days to earnings

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat; BOJ speculation dominates as Kuroda heads to Davos ; Dec Machine Tools +1%YoY. Global stealth rally...

Mark Chadwick

Nidec (6594 JP): New Valuation Benchmark

It is fashionable to criticize Nidec's business model, but valuation compression is the greater risk. Japanese interest rates have started to rise...

Scott Foster

Fanuc (6954) | This Time Is Different

Japan Machine Tool Orders have entered the third downturn since GFC. Fanuc's valuation has already sunk to downturn levels, but we fear this...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | Inflation Slain? = Buy Everything Rally

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact the trading day in Japan. Like this ? ...

Mark Chadwick

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