Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.</li>
<li>Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target</li>
<li>With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.</li>
</ul>


SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.
Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target
With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.


Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

HD Hyundai Marine Solution  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-marine-solution-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41002:1" rel="noopener">HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS)</a>, the ship after-service subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24075:1" rel="noopener">HD Hyundai (267250 KS)</a>, aims to raise up to US$550 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hd-hyundai-marine-solutions-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:135501" rel="noopener">HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that the HMS is, at best, fairly valued at the IPO price range. We would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), the ship after-service subsidiary of HD Hyundai (267250 KS), aims to raise up to US$550 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: The Investment Case. 
We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that the HMS is, at best, fairly valued at the IPO price range. We would pass on the IPO.


HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: Valuation Insights

Special Situations, Content Strategist, Smartkarma

Crispin Francis

Special Situations, Content Strategist

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

On 13 November 2016, Fincantieri, the controlling shareholder of Vard Holdings (SGX:MS7), announced a privatization for the Company at SGD 0.24 /share in cash.The offer is conditional on Fincantieri receiving valid acceptances such that it holds more than 90% of Vard; this condition is however waivable. In this insight, we look at the premia offered by Fincantieri and compare it to recent delisting offers in Singapore including Otto Marine which was delisted very recently. We examine the possibility of Fincantieri bumping the offer and the likelihood of the acceptance condition being met.

On 13 November 2016, Fincantieri, the controlling shareholder of Vard Holdings (SGX:MS7), announced a privatization for the Company at SGD 0.24 /share in cash.The offer is conditional on Fincantieri receiving valid acceptances such that it holds more than 90% of Vard; this condition is however waivable. In this insight, we look at the premia offered by Fincantieri and compare it to recent delisting offers in Singapore including Otto Marine which was delisted very recently. We examine the possibility of Fincantieri bumping the offer and the likelihood of the acceptance condition being met. 

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Italy

Fincantieri SpA designs and builds merchant and naval vessels. The Company builds cruises and ferries, naval vessels, marine systems, mega yachts, special ships and also offers ship repairs and conversion services. Fincantieri serves customers internationally.

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Fincantieri SpA (FCT IM)

Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

SHI posts strong Q1 results, reaffirms FY2025 guidance with focus on offshore projects and LNG carrier demand driving earnings growth.

Rahul Jain

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: Valuation Insights

We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that the HMS is, at best, fairly valued at the IPO price range. We would...

Arun George

VARD SP Privatisation: Sink or Swim?

On 13 November 2016, Fincantieri, the controlling shareholder of Vard Holdings (SGX:MS7), announced a privatization for the Company at SGD 0.24...

Crispin Francis

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP...

Rajan Govil

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Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

​SHI posts strong Q1 results, reaffirms FY2025 guidance with focus on offshore projects and LNG carrier demand driving earnings growth.

Rahul Jain

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: Valuation Insights

We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that the HMS is, at best, fairly valued at the IPO price range. We would...

Arun George

VARD SP Privatisation: Sink or Swim?

On 13 November 2016, Fincantieri, the controlling shareholder of Vard Holdings (SGX:MS7), announced a privatization for the Company at SGD 0.24...

Crispin Francis

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP...

Rajan Govil

SHI posts strong Q1 results, reaffirms FY2025 guidance with focus on offshore projects and LNG carrier demand driving earnings growth.