Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We believe that iron ore prices will stay stronger for longer as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale SA (VALE US)</a>, in its most recent regulatory filing, guided its production volumes down to 305-310 million tons for FY20 and 315-335 million tons for FY21. </p>
<p>Most of the sell-side and the market were assuming sales of 360 million tons for FY21. Market participants will have to bring supply estimates down by 25-45 million tons for FY21. </p>
<h3><strong>Vale Output Summary </strong></h3>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 128.444px;">2017</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 128.444px;">2018</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 128.444px;">2019</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 128.444px;">2020e</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 126.667px;">2021e</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 128.444px;">366</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 128.444px;">385</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 128.444px;">302</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 128.444px;">305-310</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 126.667px;">315-335</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>source: company filings and presentations</em></p>
<p>We believe this guide down in sales for 2021 is substantial and will benefit iron ore prices in the short-term as Vale's shipments are almost 16-17% of the seaborne market. </p>
<p>Based on spot prices of 120-140$/ton, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> trades at an 11-15% FCF yield.  The company pays out its cash generated as dividends.  </p>
<p>This catalyst and cheap FCF yield indicate a short term upside of at least 20-30%.</p>

We believe that iron ore prices will stay stronger for longer as Vale SA (VALE US), in its most recent regulatory filing, guided its production volumes down to 305-310 million tons for FY20 and 315-335 million tons for FY21. 
Most of the sell-side and the market were assuming sales of 360 million tons for FY21. Market participants will have to bring supply estimates down by 25-45 million tons for FY21. 
Vale Output Summary 



2017
2018
2019
2020e
2021e


366
385
302
305-310
315-335



source: company filings and presentations
We believe this guide down in sales for 2021 is substantial and will benefit iron ore prices in the short-term as Vale's shipments are almost 16-17% of the seaborne market. 
Based on spot prices of 120-140$/ton, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) trades at an 11-15% FCF yield.  The company pays out its cash generated as dividends.  
This catalyst and cheap FCF yield indicate a short term upside of at least 20-30%.

Fortescue Metals: More Upside In the Near Term

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We run sentiment analysis around Rio Tinto's Juukan Gorge heritage site crisis, text-mining for ESG-related sentiment since news of ethically-challenged practices at RIO broke out</li>
<li>In early June, Rio Tinto revealed it had blasted a 46,000-year-old sacred aboriginal site, sparking widespread controversy and resulting in a management shakeout and parliamentary enquiry</li>
<li>Perceived as an ESG disaster, Rio Tinto continues to underperform FMG and the MSCI Global Metals &amp; Mining Index, though its performance gap with BHP closed in September following executive resignations</li>
<li>Fortescue's performance appears to have been unaffected by the Juukan Gorge crisis, but our sentiment analysis and news attributions see gathering clouds as FMG is recently linked to significant negative stewardship headlines</li>
<li>Our daily RIO ESG sentiment time series has been 74% correlated with RIO performance since May 31 with a 7-day lead</li>
<li>Though entirely dependent on the quality and volume of news flow, NLP-based sentiment analysis can help identify and attribute decoupling between equity performance and newsflow tone, as well as challenge confirmation biases, taking into account the rapid pace of news decay</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


We run sentiment analysis around Rio Tinto's Juukan Gorge heritage site crisis, text-mining for ESG-related sentiment since news of ethically-challenged practices at RIO broke out
In early June, Rio Tinto revealed it had blasted a 46,000-year-old sacred aboriginal site, sparking widespread controversy and resulting in a management shakeout and parliamentary enquiry
Perceived as an ESG disaster, Rio Tinto continues to underperform FMG and the MSCI Global Metals &amp; Mining Index, though its performance gap with BHP closed in September following executive resignations
Fortescue's performance appears to have been unaffected by the Juukan Gorge crisis, but our sentiment analysis and news attributions see gathering clouds as FMG is recently linked to significant negative stewardship headlines
Our daily RIO ESG sentiment time series has been 74% correlated with RIO performance since May 31 with a 7-day lead
Though entirely dependent on the quality and volume of news flow, NLP-based sentiment analysis can help identify and attribute decoupling between equity performance and newsflow tone, as well as challenge confirmation biases, taking into account the rapid pace of news decay
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  After Juukan Gorge, Rio Tinto Sentiment Stabilizes.  Reckoning Time For FMG?

<p>We continue to believe that iron ore prices will remain north of 120$/ton for the rest of the year. Iron ore prices recently pulled back on account of two reasons:</p>
<p>1. The scare of China's widely circulated though unofficial "three red lines" policy which sets limits on bank borrowings: a 70% ceiling on developers' debt-to-asset ratio after excluding advance receipts; a 100% cap on the net debt-to-equity ratio; and a requirement that short-term borrowings don't exceed cash reserves, according to S&amp;P Global Ratings. </p>
<p>2. Concerns around winter steel production cuts. </p>
<h3>Iron Ore Prices </h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/937/original/image_71080867421601556425583.png?1601556428" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162937"></figure>
<p><em>Source: SGX</em></p>
<p>We believe that these concerns are overdone as China will continue to infuse liquidity into its economy and not turn the tap off suddenly. Winter steel production cuts are a seasonal phenomenon. If Chinese steel production adheres to seasonality, we will cycle into some easy YoY production comps ( October/November and December steel production could grow 10/12/6% YoY).</p>
<p>We believe Fortescue is the best way to play the high iron ore price as it provides a 14% FCF yield at a 120$/ton iron ore price. We believe that the company will pay the cash out as dividends in addition to deleveraging.  The company is also investing in further growth with a 3.2 bn USD Capex.</p>
<h3>Fortescue Cashflow Yield Sensitivity</h3>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col span="2">
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 45pt;">Mkt Cap </td>
<td style="width: 73pt;">Iron Ore Px</td>
<td style="width: 45pt;">FY21 OCF</td>
<td style="width: 56pt;">OCF Yield (%)</td>
<td style="width: 45pt;">Debt</td>
<td style="width: 38pt;">EBITDA</td>
<td style="width: 45pt;">EV-EBITDA</td>
<td style="width: 38pt;">Capex</td>
<td style="width: 38pt;">FCF</td>
<td style="width: 54pt;">FCF Yield (%) </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">130</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9,406</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13,039</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2.9</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6,206</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">120</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8,508</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">23%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11,763</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5,308</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">110</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7,611</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10,487</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4,411</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">100</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6,714</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9,214</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3,514</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">95</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6,266</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8,572</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3,066</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">90</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5,817</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">16%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7,934</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2,617</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">80</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4,919</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6,658</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1,719</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">70</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4,018</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5,318</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">818</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">60</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3,118</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4,108</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(82)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">50</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2,217</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2,829</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(983)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">37,280</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">40</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1,317</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">739</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1,553</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">24.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(3,200)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">(1,883)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>We think there could 20-30% upside or at the very least 12-13% dividend yield (based on a 62% Fe price between 110-120$/ton) on the name as the iron ore prices continue to remain stronger for longer. </p>

We continue to believe that iron ore prices will remain north of 120$/ton for the rest of the year. Iron ore prices recently pulled back on account of two reasons:
1. The scare of China's widely circulated though unofficial "three red lines" policy which sets limits on bank borrowings: a 70% ceiling on developers' debt-to-asset ratio after excluding advance receipts; a 100% cap on the net debt-to-equity ratio; and a requirement that short-term borrowings don't exceed cash reserves, according to S&amp;P Global Ratings. 
2. Concerns around winter steel production cuts. 
Iron Ore Prices 

Source: SGX
We believe that these concerns are overdone as China will continue to infuse liquidity into its economy and not turn the tap off suddenly. Winter steel production cuts are a seasonal phenomenon. If Chinese steel production adheres to seasonality, we will cycle into some easy YoY production comps ( October/November and December steel production could grow 10/12/6% YoY).
We believe Fortescue is the best way to play the high iron ore price as it provides a 14% FCF yield at a 120$/ton iron ore price. We believe that the company will pay the cash out as dividends in addition to deleveraging.  The company is also investing in further growth with a 3.2 bn USD Capex.
Fortescue Cashflow Yield Sensitivity














Mkt Cap 
Iron Ore Px
FY21 OCF
OCF Yield (%)
Debt
EBITDA
EV-EBITDA
Capex
FCF
FCF Yield (%) 


37,280
130
9,406
25%
739
13,039
2.9
(3,200)
6,206
17%


37,280
120
8,508
23%
739
11,763
3.2
(3,200)
5,308
14%


37,280
110
7,611
20%
739
10,487
3.6
(3,200)
4,411
12%


37,280
100
6,714
18%
739
9,214
4.1
(3,200)
3,514
9%


37,280
95
6,266
17%
739
8,572
4
(3,200)
3,066
8%


37,280
90
5,817
16%
739
7,934
4.8
(3,200)
2,617
7%


37,280
80
4,919
13%
739
6,658
5.7
(3,200)
1,719
5%


37,280
70
4,018
11%
739
5,318
7.1
(3,200)
818
2%


37,280
60
3,118
8%
739
4,108
9.3
(3,200)
(82)
0%


37,280
50
2,217
6%
739
2,829
13.4
(3,200)
(983)
-3%


37,280
40
1,317
4%
739
1,553
24.5
(3,200)
(1,883)
-5%



We think there could 20-30% upside or at the very least 12-13% dividend yield (based on a 62% Fe price between 110-120$/ton) on the name as the iron ore prices continue to remain stronger for longer. 

Fortescue Metals Group: Slight Hiccup from China but Thesis Intact

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<p>In our Macro Overview of Global fund positioning, we cover the following: </p><ul>
<li>Managers raise EMEA Overweight, hit max underweight in US.</li>
<li>Taiwan key beneficiary of COVID rebalance, India sees outflows.</li>
<li>Cross country exodus seen in Financials/Energy.  Materials reverse long-term decline.</li>
<li>Active managers move towards defensive and secular growth sectors and out of cyclicals.</li>
<li>UK Energy stocks see decline, Dutch Tech stocks continue to attract new investment.</li>
</ul><p><em>Taken from our Global fund analysis, covering 391 active global funds with combined AUM of $800bn.</em></p>

In our Macro Overview of Global fund positioning, we cover the following: 
Managers raise EMEA Overweight, hit max underweight in US.
Taiwan key beneficiary of COVID rebalance, India sees outflows.
Cross country exodus seen in Financials/Energy.  Materials reverse long-term decline.
Active managers move towards defensive and secular growth sectors and out of cyclicals.
UK Energy stocks see decline, Dutch Tech stocks continue to attract new investment.
Taken from our Global fund analysis, covering 391 active global funds with combined AUM of $800bn.

Global Equity Positioning:  Macro Overview.  Raising EU Overweights, Taiwan Vs India, UK Decouples

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018</li>
<li>This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures</li>
<li>Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore</li>
<li>More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer</li>
<li>Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked</li>
</ul><section><div id="ember4041"><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div></div></div></div></section>


TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018
This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures
Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore
More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer
Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

Australia

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)

Fortescue Metals: More Upside In the Near Term

Fortescue is a pure-play with a high correlation to the iron ore price. With iron ore in a 120-140$/ton range, the stock has an FCF yield of 11-15%...

Sameer Taneja

TMI Snapshot: After Juukan Gorge, Rio Tinto Sentiment Stabilizes. Reckoning Time For FMG?

We text mined for ESG-related coverage of Rio Tinto to find that sentiment (74% correlated with the equity) has stabilized since the Juukan Gorge...

Elan Gore

Fortescue Metals Group: Slight Hiccup from China but Thesis Intact

We continue to think that iron or

Sameer Taneja

Global Equity Positioning: Macro Overview. Raising EU Overweights, Taiwan Vs India, UK Decouples

In our Macro Overview of Global fund positioning, we cover the following: Managers raise EMEA Overweight, hit max underweight in US. Taiwan key...

Steven Holden

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

TMI

Elan Gore

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)