Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors.</div> We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: <ul><li><div class="content-highlight">The failure of some…</div></li></ul>

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors. We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: The failure of some…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen the worst slump in prices in 20 years and some commodities have been trading at multi-year lows. Lithium has defied the price decline and is currently trading at record highs which has sparked investor interest. This article covers the basics of the lithium industry, its demand and supply mechanics as well as its outlook five years hence.

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen the worst slump in prices in 20 years and some commodities have been trading at multi-year lows. Lithium has defied the price decline and is currently trading at record highs which has sparked investor interest. This article covers the basics of the lithium industry, its demand and supply mechanics as well as its outlook five years hence.

Lithium - An Outlier Among Sinking Commodities

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Kelusa Asia Focus Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

Historically,  iron ore prices and stock prices have been very correlated. This correlation tends to have short term breakdowns, but over the longer term remains intact. I think we are at that point now where stocks are pricing in an iron ore price higher than the current spot.  THE REASON, is the street is assuming lower costs for the iron ore stocks and prices bouncing into end of year restocking but not factoring in a deflationary spiraling of prices. There is a fairly good probability of price dropping a further 15%-20% or more  from here.

Historically,  iron ore prices and stock prices have been very correlated. This correlation tends to have short term breakdowns, but over the longer term remains intact. I think we are at that point now where stocks are pricing in an iron ore price higher than the current spot.  THE REASON, is the street is assuming lower costs for the iron ore stocks and prices bouncing into end of year restocking but not factoring in a deflationary spiraling of prices. There is a fairly good probability of price dropping a further 15%-20% or more  from here.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.</li><li class="p2">Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.</li><li class="p2">We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.</li><li class="p2">On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.</li><li class="p2">We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.</li></ul>Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA

The Outlook for Copper Prices Is Worse than Most Think

Australia

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

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Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)

Beware Impairments in EM and Asia

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for...

Mark Artherton

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments. These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last...

Greg Gibbs

Lithium - An Outlier Among Sinking Commodities

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen...

Ishita Jain

Where Is Fortescue Heading ?

Historically, iron ore prices and stock prices have been very correlated. This correlation tends to have short term breakdowns, but over the...

Sameer Taneja

The Outlook for Copper Prices Is Worse than Most Think

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further...

Morningstar, Inc.

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