Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Fubon Financial Holding Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan reports some of the most dire delta in exports in all of Asia-Pacific</li>
<li>Banks in Taiwan have been more aggressive than many countries in recent years</li>
<li>Fubon saw its loans up over 30% in the past 3 years with declining reserves to loans</li>
</ul>


Taiwan reports some of the most dire delta in exports in all of Asia-Pacific
Banks in Taiwan have been more aggressive than many countries in recent years
Fubon saw its loans up over 30% in the past 3 years with declining reserves to loans


Taiwan Banks - High Loan Growth Into Collapsing Exports

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Thai Life Insurance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> will start trading on 25 July. Thai Life raised US$975 million at the IPO price of THB16.00 per share.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-life-insurance-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71653" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-life-insurance-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71693" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-life-insurance-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71995" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The average of our DDM and relative valuation methodology suggests a price of THB15.43 per share. Remain on the sidelines as the IPO price is fair. </li>
</ul>



Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) will start trading on 25 July. Thai Life raised US$975 million at the IPO price of THB16.00 per share.
We previously discussed the IPO in Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bull Case, Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bear Case and Thai Life Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The average of our DDM and relative valuation methodology suggests a price of THB15.43 per share. Remain on the sidelines as the IPO price is fair. 


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Many of Taiwan's banks saw loans rise by 30-46% over the past three years</li>
<li>Well known large names, Fubon, Taishin, Chinatrust are all in this group</li>
<li>With rising rates and higher prices, there is increased credit risk</li>
</ul>


Many of Taiwan's banks saw loans rise by 30-46% over the past three years
Well known large names, Fubon, Taishin, Chinatrust are all in this group
With rising rates and higher prices, there is increased credit risk


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A recent shift in momentum has pushed Taiwan to the largest country level underweight in the Asia Ex-Japan region</li>
<li>Taiwan Technology stocks have driven allocations lower, in addition to Consumer Discretionary and Staples, Health Care and Financials.</li>
<li>Taiwan Tech remains the key risk.  Sentiment is starting to waver when funds are close to maximum exposure.  Underperformance here will be costly on both an absolute a relative basis</li>
</ul>


A recent shift in momentum has pushed Taiwan to the largest country level underweight in the Asia Ex-Japan region
Taiwan Technology stocks have driven allocations lower, in addition to Consumer Discretionary and Staples, Health Care and Financials.
Taiwan Tech remains the key risk.  Sentiment is starting to waver when funds are close to maximum exposure.  Underperformance here will be costly on both an absolute a relative basis


Taiwan Moves to Top Underweight, Tech Overweight Risk

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>
Axis Bank (AXSB.IN) [Axis] has become the frontrunner to purchase Citigroup’s (C.US) India [Citi India] consumer business; </li>
<li>The Citi India transaction would represent a negative adjusted net spread of 41 bp for Axis – intimating a negative return on investment of 1.0%; and </li>
<li>As many customers have hit the exit button, we have already witnessed Citi India's retail loan portfolio decline 6.7% YOY prior to FY 2022 COVID-19 protocols. </li>
</ul>



Axis Bank (AXSB.IN) [Axis] has become the frontrunner to purchase Citigroup’s (C.US) India [Citi India] consumer business; 
The Citi India transaction would represent a negative adjusted net spread of 41 bp for Axis – intimating a negative return on investment of 1.0%; and 
As many customers have hit the exit button, we have already witnessed Citi India's retail loan portfolio decline 6.7% YOY prior to FY 2022 COVID-19 protocols. 


Taiwan

Fubon Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a financial holding company, formed through the merger of Fubon Insurance, Fubon Securities, Fubon Commercial Bank, and Fubon Life Assurance.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)

Taiwan Banks - High Loan Growth Into Collapsing Exports

High lending growth into a rapidly deteriorating export environment, is not a positive combination. Lower loan loss reserves and poor insurance...

Daniel Tabbush

Thai Life Insurance IPO: Trading Debut

The average of our DDM and relative valuation methodology suggests a price of THB15.43 per share. Remain on the sidelines as the IPO price is fair.

Arun George

Taiwan - Fastest Growers at 46%

The fastest growing banks in Taiwan, have seen loans up 30-46% over the past 3 years. There is huge seasoning risk with rising rates and high...

Daniel Tabbush

Taiwan Moves to Top Underweight, Tech Overweight Risk

A recent shift in momentum has pushed Taiwan to the largest country level underweight in the Asia Ex-Japan region, with the Technology sector one...

Steven Holden

Axis Bank – Lost In The Citi

AXIS: Axis has become the frontrunner to purchase Citi India's consumer business. This deal would result in a negative ROI of 1.0% to Axis.

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)